000
FXUS61 KCLE 280926
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
426 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY.
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER
THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THIS
AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME ARE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD
LAYER BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR THEN HIGHS WILL NEED
TO BE TRIMMED 6 TO 8 DEGREES.
SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE SKIES SHOULD AT
LEAST BRIEFLY THIN BEFORE THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAST GULF MOISTURE CAN
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SINCE
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FORTUNATELY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FALL. BELIEVE THAT IT COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SINCE IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES BY MID MORNING
ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL RAIN. AFTER THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE IT APPEARS
THERE MAY ONLY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST.
THE MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD.
THERE WILL BE A STEADY WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE
40S...MAYBE TAPPING 50 AT A FEW LOCATIONS...BY FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A DECENT SNOWPACK. THESE LOCATIONS
MAY ALSO HAVE ISSUES WITH FOG STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FORCING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HINTING AT THE TRUE
COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WELL AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT AND STILL EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...FLOW
WILL SET UP FOR THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS FEATURE HAS SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
EXPECTING SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTH AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT COLD.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR BUT EACH
RUN IS SLOWLY MODIFYING THE AIR MASS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED TO NEARLY THE OH/PA BORDER. BUT...AS
FEARED...AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND SW. WILL TRY TO TIME THESE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE. STILL
EXPECTING SW FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD MORNING. AS THAT
HAPPENS...ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO START TO CAUSE THE CIGS TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WESTERN AREAS COULD BE VFR BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE EASTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE LAKE AS FLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH AT AROUND 10 TO
20 KNOTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO BE DROPPED AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WESTERN BASIN OF THE LAKE IS VIRTUALLY ICE COVERED AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME POCKETS OF SHORE ICE AROUND THE REST OF THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE...OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE REMAINS ICE FREE DUE TO THE
STORMINESS AFFECTING THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...LOMBARDY
