000
FXUS61 KBGM 280209
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
909 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM...ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND
MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 855 PM...LE SNOWS HAVE WEAKEND AS ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS...WITH JUST A SINGLE MOD BAND OF SNOW ACROSS ERN
TIOGA...WRN BROOME...AND NE SUSQ COUNTIES...BASICALLY FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
WRF/HRR/NAM CONT TO SHOW THE BAND REDEVELOPING LTR TNGT ACROSS THE
NRN FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK VLY AND PARTS OF THE SUSQ REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE TROF. AT THIS
POINT...WILL CONT WITH THE ADVISORIES XPCTG THE BANDS TO
STRENGTHEN LTR. PRVS DISCS BLO.
UPDATED AT 310 PM... LES HAS BECOME FAIRLY INTENSE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TWIN TIERS AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...A BIT SOONER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...AS DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ROTATED INTO NY/PA FROM
THE NW... AROUND INTENSE CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SEVERAL
REPORTS RECEIVED OF SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH/HOUR DOWNWIND OF
CAYUGA LK...IN TOMPKINS/TIOGA COUNTIES. IN GENERAL...THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN OF DEEP SATURATION...COMBINED WITH A COLD NNW FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ONT AND THE FINGER LAKES...SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
LES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO EXTEND FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...TO ADD A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPWARD MOTION.
LOCAL WRF/NAM12/SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS...IF ANYTHING...THE
INTENSIFICATION OF AN LES BAND AFTER ABOUT 03-04Z...FROM SOUTHERN
CAYUGA/SW ONONDAGA...DOWN TOWARDS KITH AND KBGM...AND PERHAPS INTO
PA'S NORTHERN TIER. BASED ON THIS...CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND GROUND TRUTH FROM THIS AFTERNOON...WE'VE ISSUED LES
WARNINGS FOR TIOGA/TOMPKINS COUNTIES...WHERE FINGER LAKES
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN A PERSISTENT 320-330 FLOW.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 10" HERE BY EARLY TUE. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN POSTED FROM SOUTHERN CAYUGA/ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES...SWD THROUGH CORTLAND/BROOME/CHENANGO COUNTIES...AND
INTO SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY PA. IN THESE AREAS...A GENERAL 3-6" CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 12Z TUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY TUE...THE MIXED LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK FROM
320...TO 290-300 BY 18-21Z. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE BAND MORE NEWD
INTO ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE IS ALSO PROGGED TO WANE AFTER 18Z TUE...WITH SOME WARMING
OF TEMPS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THUS...THE BAND MAY LOSE SOME
INTENSITY BY LATER IN THE DAY TUE. OUTSIDE OF PERSISTENT LES
AREAS...JUST SCATTERED -SHSN/FLURRIES EXPECTED.
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...LES IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...AS THE FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC...AND THE AIR
MASS DRIES FURTHER. STILL...RESIDUAL NW FLOW/BLYR MOISTURE WILL
KEEP AT LEAST -SHSN AT PLAY THIS PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR
AND N OF THE THRUWAY.
PCPN-FREE WX AND MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THU...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE SUBSTANTIALLY...SFC AND ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 246 PM...PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS GOOD
WITH AN IMPENDING WARM-UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND A SLOW
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN H5 RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND
MOVING TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON THIS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HINTING AT A DELAYED ARRIVAL IN
PRECIP...CONTAINED ANY POPS TO SATURDAY AND BASED ON THE NEW 0Z
EURO IT WOULD PROBABLY BE TOWARD EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME TEMPS
WILL BE THE BIG STORY WITH H925 TEMPS CLIMBING FROM NEAR 0C
THURSDAY TO 6C FRIDAY...AND APPROACHING 8C ON SATURDAY. IN FACT BY
18Z SATURDAY BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HINT AT 925 TEMPS APPROACHING
10C ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE LIMITING ANY DEEP
MIXING...WE WON'T REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT. PREFER THE HP GUIDANCE TEMPS OF NEAR 40 THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE TO SEE BETTER MIXING WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...IE SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S LOOK GOOD. IF
WE SEE ANY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR MIXING...50S ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS
WOULD BE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES.
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA. THE EURO IS
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND PREFER THIS SOLUTION BASED
ON THE RIDGE IN THE EAST BEING SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. HOWEVER EVEN
THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION HAS COLD ENOUGH TEMPS BY AFTN. FOR A
CHANGE TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WIND AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 4Z TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS. THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN THIS STRONG TUESDAY BUT SHIFT TO WNW.
KITH/KBGM...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY. DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND HEAVIER INTENSITIES WITHIN THE
SNOW BANDS...VSBYS HALF OF A MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THE BAND HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST OF BGM SO VSBYS HAVE COME UP
TO MVFR. LATER TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN IFR
VSBYS WILL REMAIN AS INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MORE INTENSE
LAKE SNOWS. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK INTO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
REMAIN.
KSYR AND KRME...LAKE SNOWS HAVE ENDED WITH CIGS IF ANY GOING TO
VFR. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO 290 LATE TONIGHT A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TOWARD
DAYBREAK IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE LIKELY AT SYR DURING THIS TIME.
AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES BY MID MORNING...LIFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS. AT KRME THE BAND SHOULD MOVE IN THERE
AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. THERE NOT EXPECTING AS LOW
CONDITIONS AS KSYR.
KELM/KAVP...THESE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF LAKE
SNOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY MVFR TO VFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. BEST CHANCE FOR SOLID MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MAY
COME AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES. BANDS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE EXTENDING TO KAVP SO MOSTLY VFR THERE WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO WED NGT...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
NY AND MVFR/VFR AVP. AS TIME GOES ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH SO LESS FREQUENT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THU TO FRI NGT...VFR.
SAT...MVFR DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOWIEST DECEMBER EVER IN SYRACUSE NY.
CURRENTLY THE 3RD SNOWIEST MONTH EVER FOR SYRACUSE NY.
ALL-TIME SNOWIEST DECEMBERS (RECORDS SINCE 1902)
1) 72.3"...2010 (THROUGH 12/24/2010)
2) 70.3"...2000
3) 64.6"...1989
4) 57.3"...2008
5) 53.0"...2005
ALL-TIME SNOWIEST MONTHS (RECORDS SINCE 1902)
1) 78.1"...JANUARY 2004
2) 72.6"...FEBRUARY 1958
3) 72.3"...DECEMBER 2010 (THROUGH 12/24/2010)
4) 72.2"...JANUARY 1978
5) 71.0"...JANUARY 1966
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ039.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ025-
055.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ056.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ036-045.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ017-
018-044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
CLIMATE...
