000
FXUS64 KOUN 280509
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.AVIATION...
LOW VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH INTO AREA WITH MODELS
SHOWING THESE CEILINGS REMAINING SE OF TAF SITES UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... COULD APPROACH A FEW TAF SITES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF SITES
TUESDAY EVENING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR TUES
EVENING AT A FEW TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
AVIATION...
SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF OK TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD LEADING TO MVFR CEILINGS STARTING IN KSPS AND POSSIBLY
KOUN/KOKC/KLAW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VFR CEILINGS
WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AT ALL
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE CWA BEHIND A NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND AHEAD OF A BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...AND WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIKELIHOOD GREATER FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND WITH THE AID OF LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
TROUGH NOW OVER BAJA RAIN IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.
A STRONG JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY THURSDAY...CARVING OUT A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THE WEEKEND...AFTER WHICH MED RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY LARGELY
END UP IN THE DRY SLOT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH WILDFIRE POTENTIAL BEING A CONCERN ON BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A NOTICEABLE WESTERLY COMPONENT. COLD AIR
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 28 47 41 55 / 0 10 40 20
HOBART OK 29 50 41 57 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 51 43 62 / 0 10 40 20
GAGE OK 25 46 30 56 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 24 46 36 54 / 0 10 20 20
DURANT OK 33 42 39 57 / 0 10 80 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/25/25
