000
FXUS64 KFWD 280526
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1126 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.AVIATION...
NORTHWARD SPREAD OF LOWER CLOUDS SLOWED DOWN A FEW HOURS AGO BUT
HAS RECENTLY RESUMED IT'S FASTER PROGRESSION FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WACO AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
FILL IN OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL BELIEVE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE AT ACT STARTING AROUND 10Z...13-14Z
ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. WILL MOST LIKELY
INCLUDE -DZ IN THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
MODERATE RAIN AS A PREDOMINANT GROUP SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
BASED ON MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE CB FOR 18 HR AND
BEYOND PORTION OF FORECASTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
GULF MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH LITTLE WARM UP EXPECTED DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINFALL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AS
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY AHEAD OF IT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BECOME VERY STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND TRANSLATE SW-NE ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE CWA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECT ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN
ALONG A LINE FROM HILLSBORO TO PARIS...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN
TO 2/3 INCH IN THE METROPLEX/WACO AND LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ACROSS
FAR NW AND SE CWA. MEANWHILE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE
INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUES NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
AREAS OF FOG AS EARLY AS TOMORROW...BUT THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IT COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE RAIN
EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL CARRY SOME HIGH POPS EAST OF I-35.
TOP-DOWN DRYING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND REALLY LIMIT WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS ARE DIFFICULT AND WILL BE MORE OF
STEADY CLIMB THAN DISPLAY ANY KIND OF TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIATION.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THINK IT IS
GOING TO BE TOUGH TO SHAKE THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE GONE MUCH
WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH UP NEAR 70 EVEN IF
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW.
UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL SIDE WITH
THE ECMWF WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS FRIDAY WELL ABOVE MEX VALUES.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH THIS CHANCE HIGHEST EAST OF I-35. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR DAY
TIME HEATING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE FRONT TIMING FOR
IMPLICATIONS ON THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN OUR
LAST FRONT...20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 39 46 43 61 54 / 5 40 100 30 5
WACO, TX 42 48 48 64 52 / 10 60 100 40 10
PARIS, TX 32 42 40 54 54 / 5 20 100 70 10
DENTON, TX 36 46 41 60 52 / 5 30 90 30 5
MCKINNEY, TX 33 44 40 59 53 / 5 30 100 40 5
DALLAS, TX 41 45 44 61 55 / 5 40 100 40 5
TERRELL, TX 36 44 43 61 56 / 5 40 100 60 10
CORSICANA, TX 39 46 46 62 56 / 10 50 100 60 10
TEMPLE, TX 42 50 49 66 52 / 20 60 100 40 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 38 48 43 63 48 / 5 40 70 20 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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