000
FXUS64 KTSA 280525
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO START THE FORECAST. A DECK OF VFR
CIGS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SE OK AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NW AR. THIS IS A PRECURSOR OF THINGS TO COME. LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT IS DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FIRST AT KMLC BY
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NW AR TAFS LATER IN
THE DAY. LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SE OK AND W
CNTRL AR AFT 00Z...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AT KMLC AND
KFSM THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...
ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWRD
WITH SHORT WAVE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...SKY CONDITION/CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED GRADUALLY UPWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MORE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE TEMPS FALLING TO FORECASTED VALUES SO BUMPED THEM UP
AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN OK/NWRN AR ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
PUSHES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SPREAD
INTO SERN OK RESULTING IN ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 27 47 37 55 / 0 10 40 30
FSM 27 46 37 50 / 0 20 70 70
MLC 29 44 40 53 / 0 20 70 50
BVO 22 48 33 54 / 0 10 30 30
FYV 24 45 33 48 / 0 10 50 70
BYV 23 45 33 47 / 0 10 40 70
MKO 25 44 35 53 / 0 10 50 50
MIO 24 46 33 52 / 0 10 30 40
F10 27 46 37 54 / 0 10 50 40
HHW 30 46 39 54 / 0 20 70 60
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
