000
FXUS64 KMAF 012351
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES FOR EARLY START TO HIGH WIND WARNING GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS HAVE ALREADY REACHED SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH.
PUSHED UP THE START OF HIGH WIND WARNING 3 HRS TO BE IN EFFECT NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011/
DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS PASSED WELL TO THE EAST WITH STRONG ARCTIC
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. 12Z MAF
SOUNDING SHOWED -13C AT 85H AND CONSENSUS IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
INCREASE IN 85H TEMPS TODAY. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS DEEPER MSTR HAS
EXITED BUT CLOUDS WILL GENERAL HOLD. FRONT LOOKS TO BE HELD UP BY
TERRAIN ACRS THE FAR SW CWFA...BUT IT WILL SURGE ALL THE WAY THRU
THE FAR SW REACHES THIS EVENING. MSLP GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP WINDS UP 10-15 MPH THRU THE EVENING...HOWEVER GRADIENT WILL
BE MUCH TIGHTER ACRS FAR W/SW AND WINDS IN HIER TERRAIN WILL BE
STRONGEST. AS SUCH HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU GDP
PASS THIS EVENING. WITH THESE WINDS TEMP WON/T HAVE TO FALL TOO
MUCH BEFORE WIND CHILLS REACH ADVISORY (-5F) LEVELS ACRS SE NM/PB
AND WARNING LEVELS (-15F) IN THE MTNS. AS SUCH HAVE PUSHED THE
ADVISORY/WARNING TO A 00Z BEGIN TIME. OTHER THAN BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS RATHER REMARKABLE
HIGH AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE COLD PATTERN WILL RAPIDLY
DROP INTO THE NM WED MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM S CNTRL NM MTNS SWD INTO THE GDP MTNS/WRN
EDDY CO...AND IN DELAWARE MTNS OF CULBERSON CO. ATTP LOOKS LIKE
HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL GO WILL WSW FOR SNOW OF 2-4
INCHES LOCAL 5 INCHES IN THE HIEST ELEVATIONS FROM 00Z WED THRU
00Z THUR...AS 120KT 3H JET STAYS OVER THE AREA WITH 5H TROF AXIS
STILL TO THE NW. 09Z SREF TOO HAS STRONG INDICATION OF HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW IN THE W. 85H TEMPS REMAIN COLD -6C FROM RIO
GRANDE TO -16 NE CWFA WED SO NO WARM-UP IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD AND A FEW -SHSN MAY MOVE AWAY INTO FROM THE GDP MTNS AREA
INTO THE W/NW PB DURING THE PM. -SHSN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
WED NIGHT/THUR AM FROM GDP MTNS TO DAVIS MTNS AS MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS
TO THE W AND MAY EVEN DEEPEN...THUS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS
HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. STILL COLD THURSDAY BUT
INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE WARMER LOW CLOUDS MAY BREAK-UP LATE. MID
LEVEL TROF PASSES FRI AND SFC RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS TO MOVE E. 85H
TEMPS MAY BE ABLE CLIMB BACK TO 0C TO 4C WITH WLY 85H COMPONENT.
85H TEMPS BACK TO AROUND 7C SAT/SUN WITH SW-W-NW WINDS. ANOTHER
ARCTIC BLAST IS ADVERTISED MONDAY SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
AGAIN.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...NORTHERN
LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...
REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
