000
FXUS64 KSHV 280312
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
912 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE ALREADY SENT TO ADDRESS MOISTURE RETURN OUT WEST WHICH WILL
EFFECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE EAST.
IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING STRONG STRATOCUMULUS DECK COMING
NORTH AND EAST OUT OF SE TX. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
RETURNING MOISTURE AND VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS VEERING WINDS IN
THE LOWEST 5KFT WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ONCE CLOUD COVER SETS IN...FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL HALT THEIR DOWNWARD PROGRESSION IN THE WEST BUT
IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THIS CLOUD COVER TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ACTUALLY WARMED OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS IN THE EXTREME WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER IS QUICKLY SETTING
IN...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE THEREFORE COOLED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOISTURE RETURN AND MADE A FEW CHANGES
TO DEWPOINT GRIDS AS WELL.
UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY SENT...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE N
INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT...ALONG A 25-30KT SSWRLY LLJ OVER CNTRL TX. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THESE 2.5KFT CIGS EXTEND ALONG A DKR...TO NE OF A
UTS...TO E OF AN IAH LINE AS OF 03Z...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE TYR/LFK
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-08Z...GGG AROUND 10Z...AND THE TXK/SHV
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-15Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR CIGS WILL ALSO SPREAD ENE
AHEAD OF THE LOWER CIGS INTO NW LA/SW AR AFTER 06Z AS WELL...BEFORE
SPREADING E ACROSS THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BY/AFTER 12Z. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY...AS A
MODIFIED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT N ACROSS CNTRL/SE TX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAN/T RULE ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA
DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z ACROSS NE TX...BEFORE SHRA BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL TX BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADS NE INTO NE
TX AROUND/AFTER 06Z. THUS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS
NE TX/SE OK ONCE THE SHRA SETS IN AT THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE S ACROSS SE TX LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT CALM TONIGHT OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 31 47 42 58 55 / 10 20 60 90 30
MLU 24 51 44 56 55 / 10 10 50 90 40
DEQ 24 44 39 52 52 / 10 20 50 70 20
TXK 29 45 40 55 54 / 10 20 60 80 20
ELD 23 47 41 56 53 / 10 10 50 90 30
TYR 38 44 41 61 57 / 10 30 70 80 20
GGG 34 46 43 61 55 / 10 30 70 80 20
LFK 37 49 48 64 56 / 10 40 70 80 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/15
