000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280703
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RISK OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA, WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS SPILLS ACROSS A WEAK RIDGE.
WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE IN A ZONAL FLOW, TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE DECEMBER 12TH.
DESPITE A NEAR CALM WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLOUD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT AND LOWS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING, HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR, OR JUST ABOVE 40 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF PROGGED MID WESTERN
LOW MAY TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATER THURSDAY. THIS
POTENTIAL IS SMALL GIVEN TIMING AND THE PROJECTED STRENGTH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS RIDGE, SO PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE SLIGHT
CATEGORY WERE INCLUDED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INITIAL
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM, BUT PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR ON SATURDAY.
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP POPS
CHANCE FOR NOW. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY
RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AT KFKL AND KDUJ
AND ALONG THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE REFORMED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL OHIO INCLUDING KZZV. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT
FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
GENERALLY VFR WEATHER MAY BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
