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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS62 KMLB 280235
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SFC OBS SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW BTWN 5-10MPH...WITH A 
HANDFUL OF SPOTS CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE.  TEMPS ON THE HR WERE AOB 
40F EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...KFPR ALREADY AT THE FREEZING 
MARK...KVRB JUST A DEGREE ABV IT. 

RAOBS SHOW A CLASSIC DRY/SUBSIDING AIRMASS OVERHEAD...PW VALUES ACRS 
THE STATE MEASURED AOB 0.15".  WITH A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND CLEAR 
SKIES OVERNIGHT...HARD FREEZE APPEARS TO BE A SLAM DUNK.  COOLING 
RATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA PUTS THE 2AM START TIME FOR THE FREEZE 
WARNING ON TARGET.  OVERNIGHT MINS IN M/U20S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL 
FL...THOUGH THE LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BARRIER ISLANDS 
IN THE U20S/L30S.

NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. 

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 29/00Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
DATA BUOYS SHOW W/NW SFC WNDS HAVE FALLEN BLO SCA CRITERIA BUT 
REMAIN WITHIN THE 15-20KT RANGE.  SEAS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS 
WELL BUT REMAIN QUITE TREACHEROUS WITH BOTH BUOY009/012 REPORTING 
5-6FT SEAS AND 6SEC PDS.  WHILE WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PUSHES TOWARD 
FL...CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN ROUGH ENOUGH TO 
MAINTAIN THE SCA. 

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP NEARSHORE SEAS WELL BLO ADVISORY 
CRITERIA...BUT ALSO WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PD WIND WAVES WITHIN 
A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS 
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...(PREV DISC)
IT APPEARS THAT NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL BE SET AT ORLANDO (MCO) 
AND MELBOURNE (MLB) GIVEN THEIR 2 PM TEMPERATURES OF 48F AND 50F 
RESPECTIVELY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BEING FORECAST TO OCCUR 
TONIGHT AT ORLANDO...MELBOURNE...AND VERO BEACH.

MON DEC 27TH LOW MAX/YEAR
DAYTONA BEACH...47F/1935
ORLANDO (MCO)...56F/2001
MELBOURNE.......54F/1977
VERO BEACH......51F/1983

TUESDAY DEC 28TH LOW/YEAR
DAYTONA BEACH...26F/1935
ORLANDO (MCO)...31F/1977
MELBOURNE.......32F/1972
VERO BEACH......34F/1977

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR 
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN 
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
     
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL 
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN 
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL 
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST