000
FXUS64 KMAF 272320
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MAF...WHICH WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY. SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FOR
ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MINOR SRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF INVOF NRN
BAJA WITH HIGH CLOUDS FAR AND WIDE ACRS W TX/SE NM SKIES. LEE TROF
HAS DEVELOPED ACRS ERN NM WITH SLOW INCREASE OF 7H WINDS TODAY.
DWPNTS STILL LOOK TO EDGE UP BY EARLY TUE MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED
SHRTWV TROF SLOWLY MOVES E. 85H TEMPS NEAR 8C WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS CNTRL PB. PRECIP WILL REMAIN E OF CWFA TUE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY WED AS 120-130KT 3H JET MOVES S
ALONG THE W COAST. 7H WINDS WILL INCREASE WED PM ACRS W TX/SE NM
AHEAD OF DEEPENING W COAST TROF WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN ERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS IN BOTH MTNS/PLAINS.
ATTP WILL OPT TO ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GDP MTNS FROM WED PM
THRU THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRI.
AS FOR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL HOLD OF ON WATCH JUST YET BUT NOTING THAT
A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THERE ABOVE 6KFT FOR THUR/FRI. DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THERMAL RIDGE WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 14C SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S/70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TRANS PECOS AND
PARTS OF THE PB WED PM. WINDS TO STAY UP ACRS PLAINS OVERNIGHT SO IT
WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
PM. FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SFC LOW AND INCREASED MIXED LAYER WINDS
WILL SUPPORT WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY PM WHERE WINDS WILL EASILY BE 20-30 MPH...AT TIMES 25-35G45
MPH ACRS SE NM/PB ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY BUT COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL.
MEANWHILE COLD 5H LOW WILL BE INVOF 4 CORNERS REGION LATE THURSDAY.
AS LOW MOVES E OF 4 CORNERS 12Z FRIDAY A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W FRIDAY AM. GFS IS FASTEST WITH EWD MOVEMENT
WHICH WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS BEING FARTHER S AND
E INTO THE PB/LOW ROLLING PAINS. THERE HAS BEEN ALOT UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT CONTINUES WITH 00Z ECMWF SHOWING STRONGEST
WINS FARTHER N. STILL MSLP PATTERN SHOWS VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE SE NM PLAINS/PB/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TRANS PECOS
FRIDAY AM. 85H TEMPS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AND TEMPS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TOO. AS SAID AIR WILL BE COLD FRIDAY BUT IT
WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY WITH POSSIBILITY OF SINGLE DIGIT DWPNT TEMPS.
DECREASED WIND AND DRY AIR SAT MORNING WILL MAKE FOR COLD START TO
NEW YRS DAY. EVEN THOUGH WLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SAT PM IT/S NOT
ENUF TO MOVE SFC RIDGE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HOLD SATURDAY. NEXT
MID LEVEL TROF IN PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY BE NEAR
THE DESERT SW SUNDAY/MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL REFLECT WARMING TREND
AHEAD OF THAT TROF.
FIRE WEATHER...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WED. BRIEF RF CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE PB/SE NM/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR WINDS AND MIN RH OF 15 PCT TO LINE UP FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY ACRS MOST ALL OF THE AREA. IT WILL
BE WINDIEST IN THE MTNS...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE TOO COOL THERE FOR
THE RH TO FALL BLO 15 PCT. GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE SE NM PLAINS/PB BUT AGAIN MIN RH/S ABOVE 15 PCT WILL MITIGATE
FIRE CONCERNS SOME. FRIDAY IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE VERY DRY AIR THAT
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MIN RH/S MAY BE ABLE TO NEAR RF
CONDITIONS IN THE SE NM PLAINS/PB WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE SE NM PLAINS/PB.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
COUNTY.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
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