000
FXUS64 KLZK 272036
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN
AR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THEN ANY SEVERE
STORM THREAT LATE IN THE WEEK.
TODAY HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BUT COLD ADVECTION IN THE MORNING...BECOMING A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. MORNING LOWS WERE QUITE COLD FROM 9 IN FAYETTEVILLE
AND PARTS OF THE NW...TO MANY TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS DRIFTED EAST TO MISSISSIPPI AND
RETURNED A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW TO AR. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE
DRY WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE AROUND 0.20 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BIT MILDER
TEMPS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY BUT STILL
MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE DAY TO EVENING WHEN ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND RETURN MOISTURE MAKES IT TO AR. BUT INITIAL COVERAGE AND RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. TEMPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO HAVE LIGHT RAIN
ALL OF AR...EXCEPT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTH TO
NORTHEAST...WHERE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL TAKE THE COLUMN
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP AND GFS AND ECMWF DO HOLD MOST OF ANY
PRECIP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. ALL MODELS
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE BACK TO AR WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW...AND
AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STRONGER ENERGY MOVES OVER AR THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH THUNDER EVEN BACK INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY.
OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT AND
RETURN MOISTURE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN AR.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN EXCEPTIONALLY
ACTIVE GLOBAL UPR PATTERN WITH SO MANY SMALL AND LARGE SCALE
FEATURES IN SPLIT UPR FLOW...STARING AT A SNAPSHOT OF THE UPR
WESTERLIES COULD GIVE ONE A HEADACHE. FOR THE NATURAL STATE...THE
MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A LARGE UPR TROUGH
THAT WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THU AND EJECT THROUGH
THE PLAINS ON FRI. ARKANSAS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH DEEP SWRLY FLOW ADVECTING HEAT AND MSTR INTO THE STATE. AS THE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS...A RELATIVELY WEAK LEE SIDE SFC
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM SERN CO 00Z FRI TO MN BY FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS SFC LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY /NEW YEARS EVE/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST THUNDER CHCS EAST AND SOUTH.
IN SPITE OF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
500-1500 J/KG CAPE ON FRIDAY IN AREAS MAINLY CONFINED BY I40 TO THE
NORTH AND I30 TO THE WEST. STIFF SOUTH TO SERLY SFC WINDS BELOW A
STRONG SWLY LLJ AND GOOD FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...CONDS
COULD BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR ALL TYPES OF SVR WX INCLUDING FAST
MOVING...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND/OR A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE.
THEREFORE...A VERY CLOSE EYE WILL NEED BE KEPT ON NEW YEARS EVE DAY
AS IT APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP TIMING AND CLOUD
COVER AND HAVE LEFT GOING GRIDS AS A GOOD HEDGE.
SATURDAY /NEW YEARS/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING THE FRONT
THROUGH ON FRI NIGHT...PROVIDING A DRIER DAY ON SAT WITH COLD AIR
FILTERING IN. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL RACE OUT OF THE
STATE BEFORE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL IS ABLE TO MAKE IT...BUT
WILL FOR NOW JUST HEDGE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE EXIT OF POPS AND
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES. STRONG
CAA SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE DIURNAL REBOUND WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
EVEN FALLING DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 24 47 33 45 / 0 10 40 70
CAMDEN AR 26 50 38 52 / 10 10 50 70
HARRISON AR 24 46 33 47 / 0 10 40 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 26 48 37 50 / 10 10 50 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 25 48 36 48 / 0 10 40 70
MONTICELLO AR 24 51 37 51 / 0 10 40 80
MOUNT IDA AR 26 48 37 50 / 10 10 60 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 24 46 33 46 / 0 10 40 60
NEWPORT AR 23 47 33 45 / 0 10 40 80
PINE BLUFF AR 25 50 37 49 / 0 10 40 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 47 35 48 / 10 10 50 60
SEARCY AR 24 48 35 47 / 0 10 40 80
STUTTGART AR 24 49 36 48 / 0 10 40 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...63
