000
FXUS63 KOAX 272050
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 20Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS
IN ADVANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE AREA AS
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE
THAT DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLING NORTH INTO THE REGION. CURRENT
TRENDS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DEPENDENT ON WHETHER FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP
OR NOT. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSOURI
RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE SNOW COVER IN PLACE. RATHER MILD AFTER
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDED TOWARD MODEL BLEND.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS A POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US EARLY
IN THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...THAT COULD BRING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW TO THE AREA...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DRY SLOT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...THUS IT APPEARS TO BE A GLANCING BLOW OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL AFFECT US. BY FRIDAY...WOULD EXPECT FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER ANY SNOW OF FRIDAY WILL BE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF
MODEL...OR IF THE SNOW WILL BE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO OUR AREA AS
SUGGESTED BY A CONSISTENT GFS MODEL. FORECAST COMPROMISES BOTH
SOLUTIONS AND STILL INDICATES A CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT AGAIN...DONT
FEEL THIS WILL BE A BIG SYSTEM FOR US...AND COULD RESULT IN NOT MUCH
AT ALL IF THE MORE WESTERN/NORTHERN TRACK VERIFIES. THUS...STILL
HAVE 30/40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY...AND ESSENTIALLY
FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
NORTH. DRY AND MODERATING TEMPS THEREAFTER AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. AREA OF MVFR
CIGS WAS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO/THRU ERN NEB THIS AFTN...AND EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE SHORT PD OF CIGS GENERALLY FL015 AGL MAINLY BTWN
27/22Z-28/01Z. AFTER THAT...VFR COND WILL PREVAIL REST OF THE FCST
PD WITH A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW AROUND 10KT TWD 28/18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD/DEE
