000
FXUS62 KJAX 271855
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010
...ANOTHER HARD FREEZE TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...
VERY STRONG NOR'EASTER LOW PULLING FARTHER AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AND THUS RELAXING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. WNW
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO ARND 25 MPH BUT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. A NORTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE HARD
FREEZE CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. COLD AND
DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHO AN EVER SO SLOW
WARMING OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING PRODUCING IDEAL CONDS
FOR FROST...ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FORECAST MINS IN
MID 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS WILL BE THE LOW/MID 50S ON TUE AND
58-64 DEG WED.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN
ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK INTO THE 70S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE PUSHES OVER RIDGE ON THURSDAY. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. PRESENT ADVISORY
TIMING APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE NEAR SHORE ADVISORY ENDING AT
4 PM AND THE OFFSHORE ENDING AT 3 AM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES ARE FINALLY FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH SOME 15 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL DURATIONS OF 4 HOURS TO VERIFY IN
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING DRY AIR...
RED FLAG CRITERIA DURATIONS SHOULD EASILY BE MET THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
HAVE LEFT WARNINGS AND WATCHES UNCHANGED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 22 53 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 28 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 23 54 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 26 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 21 55 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 20 56 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM TUE
FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM TUE FOR ALACHUA-
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE WED MORNING THRU WED AFTERNOON
FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
SUWANNEE-UNION.
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUE EVENING THRU WED MORNING FOR
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
UNION.
GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM TUE
FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF
DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM TUE FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
TRABERT/CARROLL
