000
FXUS64 KHUN 280325 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.UPDATE...ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM...WITH A
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS PRESENT. TEMP FALLS SO FAR THIS EVENING ARE
NOT IN TANDEM AND APPEAR TO BE DEPENDENT LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW COVER. FOR EXAMPLE...MUSCLE SHOALS WHICH HAS LITTLE SNOW COVER
IS AT 30F AT 9 PM. MEANWHILE...LOCATIONS WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
THAT COULD EASILY BE SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY JUST BEFORE SUNSET ARE IN
THE TEENS TO MID 20S. AT 9 PM...WINCHESTER WAS THE COOL SPOT AT 16F
ALREADY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH CONSIDERATION OF BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SNOW COVERED AREAS AND LESSER COOLING IN OTHER
AREAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SNOW IN MANY PLACES TO STILL HAVE
SOME EFFECT.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
CHANNEL IR IMAGERY INDICATES NO REAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE GOES LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCTS SEEM TO INDICATE PERHAPS
THE BEGINNING OF SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TN RIVER CHANNEL.
DUE TO LACK OF COVERAGE THUS FAR AND LINGERING LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...WILL LEAVE OUT OF MENTION IN FORECAST FOR
NOW. BUT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION... /FROM 00Z TAFS. NO CHANGES./
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KHSV.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG SOME OF THE LOW-
LYING AREAS AND NEAR THE TN RIVER CHANNEL...WHICH WILL PRESENT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT THE MORE USUALLY FOG-PRONE KMSL
AIRPORT. THIS APPEARS LIKELIEST BTWN 10-14Z...BUT STILL ONLY MDT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL PASS OVHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...BOTTOM LINE FOR THIS FCST IS A BIG WARM UP AND A
RAINY/UNSETTLED PERIOD BY THE MID/END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE WENT
WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE. AFTN HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THE WX WILL START TO GO DOWN HILL BY WEDNESDAY AS STORM NUMBER ONE
APPROACHES THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS. ATTM
THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY TSRA. MAY HAVE A
SHORT BREAK WITH THE PCPN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER STORM NUMBER TWO...WHICH WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW STORM NUMBER 1...WITH A GOOD CHC OF MORE RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR AS GFS
MOVES A STRONG CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL DRAG A CDFNT ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTN...WITH PCPN
TAPERING OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALSO THERE MAY BE A SVR WX/HVY RAIN
THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MRNG...DUE TO 8H WINDS ARND
50 KTS...HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND PW'S ARND 1.5 INCHES.
BEHIND THE CDFNT ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY A WARM FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS BY
MONDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON MONDAY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...KDW
PREV DISCUSSION...07
