000
FXAK69 PAFG 271531
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
631 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
RETROGRADE SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA ARE -20C OR COLDER NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND A BIT
WARMER TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME COOLING TUE AND THEN WARMING IN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
THROUGH WED AND THEN START TO RISE SLOWLY IN THE INTERIOR...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COASTS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL MOVE TO BARROW BY 3PM MON...TO KOTZEBUE BY 3AM TUE...OVER
NORTON SOUND BY 3PM TUE...AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA BY 3AM WED.
LITTLE WEATHER WITH THIS BUT WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST DECREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASE AGAIN AS THE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH.
SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THIS IS CAUSING CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH LOW WIND SPEEDS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. THIS IS CAUSING NORTH
WINDS OF 20-30 KT ALONG THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH COLD WIND CHILLS.
AREAS THAT NORMALLY SEE SUPER GRADIENT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HAVE NORTH WINDS 25-35KT AND BLOWING SNOW.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM BETHEL TO FORT YUKON WILL MOVE
TO BETHEL TO BETTLES TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 3AM TUE AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS IS STILL CAUSING NORTHEAST WINDS 20-30 KT THROUGH
BROOKS RANGE PASSES AND ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AS WELL AS OVER HILLS OF THE INTERIOR ALONG THE TROUGH.
THERE ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ALONG THE TROUGH.
A SECOND TROUGH SOUTH OF NORTHWAY WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWAY AREA
BY 3PM MON...TO BIG DELTA TO EAGLE BY 3AM TUE...AND TO DENALI TO
CIRCLE BY 3PM TUE. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH FROM TOK
SOUTH DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES TO THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ219-AKZ220.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&
$$
JB DEC 10
