000
FXUS63 KDTX 110855
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
355 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010
.SHORT TERM...TODAY
BAND OF CIRRUS PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED
THE SPREAD OF FOG...BUT AS THIS BAND SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER LAKE HURON
AND ONTARIO...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO FILL IN QUICKLY HEADING TOWARDS
DAWN. 11U-39U SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THIS PROCESS UNDERWAY
FROM THE M 59 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND SURFACE OBS...AFTER SHOWING A
JUMP VISIBILITIES TO 3+SM UNDER THE CIRRUS...ARE BEGINNING TO DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN A MILE (AND TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS FROM I 94 SOUTH).
WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS TREND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DIFFICULT TODAY AND WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS PRESENT. YESTERDAY...VERY PERSISTENT STRATUS KEPT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CWA-WIDE. SO FAR...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SETUP WILL NOT BE QUITE AS PERVASIVE...SO WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. WILL SHAVE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE GOING FORECAST...WILL EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND CLOSER TO 60 SOUTHWEST OF
METRO DETROIT WHERE THE BEGINNINGS OF A MORE SOUTHEAST -VS - EAST
FLOW INFLUENCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST.
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHED FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA
DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST...AND DRAPE
ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY. LATEST ROUND OF
MODELS HOLD A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH. GFS REMAINS
A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW...AND PREFER THE
EURO/UKMET/NAM SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS
DRY WITH GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (NEARER TO THE FRONT). THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
HELP MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. KEPT FOG MENTION OUTSIDE OF BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE STALLED FRONT
OVERHEAD OR IN THE VICINITY. WE COULD END UP WITH QUITE A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BY FRIDAY IF IT SETTLES JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH. CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST RANGES FROM THE MID 50S (NORTH) TO
MID 60S (SOUTH). EURO/NAM SHOW BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT RAMPING UP ON SATURDAY...WHILE ALSO LIFTING THE FRONT NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. THINK CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY ARE NOW QUITE LOW AND DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALSO MADE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY...WITH MAXES FROM THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.
STILL ANTICIPATE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT UP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS THE FOUR CORNERS ENERGY EVENTUALLY TRAVELS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO
RUN FASTER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AND PREFER
THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z EURO/UKMET/NAM.
THIS SCENARIO FIRST BRINGS AN OCCLUSION ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE REAL COLD FRONT DURING LATE
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE TIED TO
THE OCCLUSION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY OVERRUN THE SURFACE FRONT.
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT/QUALITY SHOWN ON MODELS IS NOT ALL TOO
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...AND WANTED TO KEEP POPS AT HIGH SCATTERED (50
PERCENT). VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO COMMENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH THE EURO SHOWING H925/850 TEMPS ACTUALLY DROPPING
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TOOK DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES
TO FOLLOW TREND IN THE EURO...WITH TEMPS NOW QUITE A BIT BELOW 00Z
MEX GUIDANCE.
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND POLAR
JET SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW A STREAM OF
SHORTWAVES TO CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THESE WAVES WILL BE HARD TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...AS EXHIBITED BY WIDE
MODEL VARIANCES WITH THESE FEATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL RETAIN
INHERITED DRY AND COOL FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS BRING A LARGE
WAVE THROUGH AT THAT TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT
THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
$$
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST WED NOV 10 2010
THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COMBINED
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A STRONG INVERSION WILL BRING VLIFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS VSBYS DROP FO 1/4 MILE
AND CIGS DROP TO 100 FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SUNRISE TO
MVFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THE VIS/CIGS COULD REMAIN LOW INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKE THEY DID YESTERDAY. GIVEN HOW POORLY THE
MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE RECENT FOG EVENTS CANNOT RELY SOLELY ON THE
MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT TODAY. THEREFORE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE MAKING ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TAFS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-
MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-
MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
