000
FXUS62 KMLB 271937
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS...
...ANOTHER FREEZE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST...
...WARMUP BEGINS WEDNESDAY...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BRISK DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. AREAS ACROSS THE
ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND WESTWARD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...AND
WITH SUNSET ONLY A FEW HOURS AWAY...ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 50F THIS
AFTERNOON. BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST HAVE MANAGED TO
REACH THE LOW 50S...BUT THE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAKE IT SEEM MUCH
COLDER. ACROSS THE NORTH WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WINDS WILL DECLINE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE WAY OF THE STRONG STORM MOVING OUT
OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH CLEAR SKIES...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN MOST
LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT MINS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
FOR MUCH OF EC FL...WITH A RURAL INTERIOR SECTIONS DROPPING INTO MID
20S AND LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW KEEPING THE BARRIER ISLANDS NEAR 30/LWR
30S.
ALTHOUGH HAVE REMAINED A FEW DEGREES IN MOST PLACES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...DURATION OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 28F WILL BE FOR 4-6 HOURS
IN MOST PLACES...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WARNING TO A HARD
FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR AND ALL OF VOLUSIA COUNTY AND KEPT A FREEZE
WARNING FOR BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST. KEPT PATCHY FROST
MENTION ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...AND THE FAR INTERIOR
TREASURE COAST COUNTIES.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY BUT COOL DAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. AFTER A VERY COLD
START...HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO
AND POINTS NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
TUE NGT-THU...ONCE AGAIN...GUIDANCE CAME IN A FEW DEGS COLDER ON
AVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TUE NGT MINS...CONSEQUENTLY HAVE
RAISED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SFC
HIGH CRESTING OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NGT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FROST.
HAVE ADDED "AREAS FROST" FOR ALL AREAS. MINS GNRLY IN THE U20S
TO L30S. TEMPS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE BY WED WITH HIGHS STILL
A LTL BELOW NORMAL (L60S NORTH TO U60S-70F SOUTH) BUT NOT NEARLY AS
EXTREME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODERATION CONTINUES AS HIGH CTR SLIDE
EAST OF FL WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND MAXES IN THE L70S ON THU WITH A
LGT ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG.
FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A
GRDLY INCRSG/VEERING LOW LVL WIND PATTERN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE A WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS FINALLY
REACHING NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REACH FLORIDA
BY LATE WEEKEND BUT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SLOW THE BOUNDARY DOWN AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE...IF ANY...LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EVEN IF FRONT REACHES THE AREA IT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS POINT
WITH NO MAJOR COOL DOWNS/PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. WNW SFC WINDS GUSTS 18-25KT THROUGH 28/01Z. WINDS
BECOMING 5KTS OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 04Z AND REMAINING
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND WINDS
HAVE COME DOWN AT BUOY 41009. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE
OVERNIGHT WITH A A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH TONIGHT
OFFSHORE. SEAS 7-9FT OFFSHORE/4-6FT NEARSHORE AND SUBSIDING AS WINDS
SLACKEN. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON TUESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE
N-NW AT 10KTS OR LESS AND SEAS FALL TO 2FT NEARSHORE/4-5FT OFFSHORE
BY THE AFTERNOON. MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FURTHER
SOUTH MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STREAM.
WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK AND
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST BY WEEKS END. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LGT FLOW
WED TO BCM MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SERLY INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS
INITIALLY UP TO 6 FT TUES AND GRADUALLY DECLINING TO AROUND 4 FT
OR LESS BY THU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...DESPITE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPS RH VALUES HAVE
MANAGED TO DROP BELOW OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA...
WILL VERIFY IN MOST LOCATIONS ON INSTANTANEOUS CONDITIONS ...THOUGH
BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RH VALUES
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS
EXPECT TO SEE LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH IN THE AFTERNOON. RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.
DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL BEGIN
TO BE MODIFIED BY ONSHORE FLOW INTO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. SEVERAL HOURS
OF CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON TUE AFTN OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COS.
THESE SAME COS ARE IN A FWW FOR WED AFTN AS VERY DRY/LOW RH VALUES
WL REMAIN IN PLACE AS HIGH DRIFTS OVHD. RH VALUES WILL IMPROVE THUR
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW DVLPS.
&&
.CLIMATE...IT APPEARS THAT NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL BE SET AT
ORLANDO (MCO) AND MELBOURNE (MLB) GIVEN THEIR 2 PM TEMPERATURES OF
48F AND 50F RESPECTIVELY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BEING FORECAST
TO OCCUR TONIGHT AT ORLANDO...MELBOURNE...AND VERO BEACH.
MON DEC 27TH LOW MAX/YEAR
DAYTONA BEACH...47F/1935
ORLANDO (MCO)...56F/2001
MELBOURNE.......54F/1977
VERO BEACH......51F/1983
TUESDAY DEC 28TH LOW/YEAR
DAYTONA BEACH...26F/1935
ORLANDO (MCO)...31F/1977
MELBOURNE.......32F/1972
VERO BEACH......34F/1977
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 27 54 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 30 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 29 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 28 59 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 25 54 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 28 57 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 29 57 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 25 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-
MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...MOSES
