000
FXUS64 KCRP 271754 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1154 AM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. BKN 3.5-4K DECK JUST OFF
THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INTO KCRP AND KVCT IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
DRIZZLE OR PATCHY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN AS THE
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT PATCHY RAIN COOLS THE COLUMN AND A LOW MVFR AND
POSSIBLY AN IFR DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM
WILL KEEP MVFR DECK AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RESUMED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. GOES
SOUNDER DPI SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA...AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED INTO THE 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
HAVE QUICKLY WARMED THIS MORNING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SO LET
THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRE. UPDATED SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MOVED THE SCA BACK TILL MIDNIGHT
AS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 KNOTS OR GREATER
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY BRINGING ALONG AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE EVENING
PROGRESS AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS MORE MOISTURE POOLS IN.
DECENT MID LEVEL LIFTING WILL ALSO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF TAF SITE KALI DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CWA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL HELP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NOT REACH
THE EXTREMITY THAT LOWS REACHED YESTERDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
THE DAY WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN. CURRENTLY HIGHER PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS
CREATING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...ALSO ALLOWING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
TODAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED EAST
OF THE ROCKIES... WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS. CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CHANCES INCREASING
GREATLY THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED UP SINCE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL HELP IN THE INCREASE OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WENT ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING PAST THE 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC S/WV TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA
EARLY IN THE FCST PD. THIS POTENT S/WV ALONG WITH THE LEFT-FRONT
QUAD OF A 110 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WL PROVIDE MODERATE TO
STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE CWA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE WL RESIDE ACROSS THE CWA WITH PWATS AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY
WED MORNING. THE NET RESULT WL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH WED MORNING. THERE WL ALSO BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND EXTREME NERN AREAS GIVEN CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND A WARM FRONT IN THE VCNTY. THIS WARM FRONT WL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WHICH WL
ENHANCE THE OVERALL RAINFALL CHANCES. WL THUS GO WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE NERN AREAS WITH CHC/LKLY POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 18Z
WED. PCPN SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING WED AFTN
AS THE 850-700 TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE RGN FROM THE SIERRA MADRE AS A RESULT. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED PCPN
POTENTIAL WL THEN EXIST FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILE WL EXIST. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA ON FRI NIGHT...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES WL SPREAD SWD. MUCH
COLDER...DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC RDG AXIS BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE CWA. COOL CONDITIONS BUT WITH LESS
WIND WL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CWA. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WL GUARANTEE THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS WL PERSIST EACH AND EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED
FCST PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 69 61 76 60 / 30 60 70 60 10
VICTORIA 50 66 58 71 57 / 30 60 80 80 10
LAREDO 54 71 59 80 57 / 10 20 20 10 0
ALICE 54 69 60 78 59 / 30 60 60 50 0
ROCKPORT 55 68 62 72 62 / 30 60 80 70 10
COTULLA 50 67 58 78 53 / 10 40 40 20 0
KINGSVILLE 55 70 60 78 59 / 30 50 60 50 10
NAVY CORPUS 58 68 63 73 63 / 30 50 70 60 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AK/84...AVIATION
