000
FXUS62 KCAE 272039
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. OVERNIGHT ROADWAY CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE TODAY HAVE DRIED MOST
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING GUSTY
WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM WHEN
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RIDGE WILL FORCE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF STATES
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS HAVE TAKEN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE
BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RESPOND WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND WITH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AND LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE BEING THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
US. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S FRIDAY AND 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER REMAIN CAUTIOUS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL AMPLIFICATION COULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM BEING A BIT SLOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED WHICH WOULD DELAY ARRIVAL UNTIL SUNDAY. FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY OVER FL ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS
TO PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION EXPECT HIGHS TO RETREAT TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
