000
FXUS61 KBOX 280427
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1127 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
NOREASTER THAT AFFECTED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A GRADUAL MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...AT 1030 PM...WORCESTER WAS STILL GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS...43
KNOTS AT BOSTON...40 KNOTS AT MANCHESTER NH...ETC. NAM AND GFS 925
MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED ADVISORIES
THROUGH 6 AM. ALSO EXTENDED STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY MORNING. BOSTON HARBOR IS DOWNGRADED TO A
STRONG GALE WARNING.
PREVIOUS WARNINGS...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES IN THE
WRAP AROUND WILL BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH CLEARING COMMENCING.
COLD TEMPS TONIGHT AND MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAD TO COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS -10 OR SO FROM ORH WEST...AND WILL MENTION WIND
CHILLS IN THE WSW UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. DOWNGRADED HIGH WIND WARNING TO
WIND ADVISORY FOR EAST COASTAL ZONES /THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...WHERE
GUSTS IN THE 40 PLUS KT RANGE ARE STILL PREVALENT. WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING HEAVY WET SNOW...TREES ARE WEAKENED AND LADEN WITH SNOW
AND THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO MORE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN.
FURTHER INLAND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
MPH CONNECTICUT VALLEY...AND 40 TO 45 WORCESTER AREA AND EAST.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
TOMORROW OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME 40KT GUSTS EXPECTED
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDS DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT
* A GENERAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
LEADING INTO NEW YEARS DAY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PULLS FURTHER
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN...AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STILL SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
EARLY ON ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. FOR TEMPS WENT WITH A BLEND OF
PREVIOUS AND MOS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY LIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
BLOWING SNOW. NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 KTS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. OUTER CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT DUE TO OCEAN-EFFECT CLOUDS. NW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS IN THE TAFS WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45 KTS AT TIMES.
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 35 KT
TUESDAY...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 40 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
WINDS DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE STORM WARNINGS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN WATERS EXCEPT A STRONG GALE WARNING IN
BOSTON HARBOR. 925 MB WINDS SHOW STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING...THUS DO NOT SEE WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS.
TUESDAY ...STORMS WILL DIMINISH TO GALES OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...AND
GALES ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNINGS SHOULD TREND DOWN TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25
TO 30 KT...THEN GUSTS TO 25 KT WED. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DROP BELOW 5 FT
ON THURSDAY...THEN WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONTINUING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE.
SURGES AROUND 2 FT ALONG WITH 1-2 FT RESIDUAL AND VERY LARGE WAVES
OFFSHORE SHOULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TIDE. WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE RESIDUAL WATER LEVELS WILL RECEDE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NUMEROUS ASOS SITES HAVE TROUBLE TICKETS ISSUED AND WILL BE LOOKED
AT THE EARLIEST CONVENIENCE.
THERE IS AN OUTAGE OF THE GLOUCESTER NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTER AS OF 1015 PM. TELCO IS CHECKING INTO THIS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
008>012-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-013>024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
254-255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB/GAF
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG/NMB
AVIATION...RLG/NMB
MARINE...NMB/GAF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
