000
FXUS64 KEWX 280531 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM ARIZONA. CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP THIS
EVENING AND CURRENTLY ARE MVFR TO VFR. EXPECT IFR CIGS BY 08Z WITH
-DZ/-RA DEVELOPING. KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED BY 11Z. DO NOT EXPECTED MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAY ON TUE AS DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD -DZ/-RA/-SHRA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TSRA
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35 AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUING INTO TUES NIGHT.
KDRT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT AND NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 18Z TUES.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. IN
RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALL POINTS TO A CLOUDY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS
SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING. CURRENT TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MODELS HAVE PREDICTED.
WITH THAT IN MIND WILL ADJUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY BUT THE OVERALL
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW SC DECK CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT WILL
SEE VFR CIGS BECOMING MVFR THEN IFR VSBYS BY 06Z-08Z. WILL ALSO
SEE VSBYS DECREASE AS FOG DEVELOPS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BEGINS TO
FALL. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY WITH IFR CIGS
CONTINUING. BETWEEN 17Z-19Z WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...EAST OF I-35. DRT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CIGS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE BY 21Z AND
ONLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE E-SE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRAVERSE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND PRODUCE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AROUND NOON TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO HALF INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CORRIDOR. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY GET UP TO AN INCH.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS AND STRIKE PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES FROM A BURNET TO FAYETTE TO DEWITT LINE.
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWFA.
ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 2011 WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 56 54 68 52 / 10 60 80 50 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 57 54 67 49 / 10 60 80 50 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 59 56 69 50 / 10 60 70 50 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 42 50 48 64 46 / 10 50 70 40 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 62 46 69 44 / 0 20 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 42 53 50 66 50 / 10 50 80 50 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 62 53 71 45 / 10 40 50 30 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 57 55 67 50 / 10 60 80 50 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 46 62 56 68 56 / 10 60 80 60 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 48 59 55 70 49 / 10 60 70 40 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 62 57 73 50 / 10 60 70 40 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
09/10
