000
FXUS65 KABQ 272230
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MST MON DEC 27 2010
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT WRN/CENTRAL NM DURING THE MID-WEEK...
...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE FOCUS ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH UPSTREAM WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. LATEST
RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATES A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL AZ. KFSX/KEMX WSR-88DS INDICATE A
LIGHT BAND OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY AOB 15DBZ...SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO MOSEY EASTWARD TONIGHT...THEN DEPART THE
ERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT SUSPECT INTENSITY OF PCPN TO
IMPROVE...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW GRADE POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER.
AN AIRMASS FROM THE CANADIAN YUKON WILL RAPIDLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY...SENDING A STRONG DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...A CLOSED LOW WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE ERN PACIFIC BECOMES
ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM. PCPN WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND EVENTUALLY CLIP THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND 6500 FEET IN GENERAL...
WHICH WILL RELEGATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SRN SAN
JUAN AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE WRN SLOPES. PCPN SHOULD
RAPIDLY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE NC/SW MTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS CRATERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS
PERIOD TO BE THE ONSET OF MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS WRN/
NRN NEW MEXICO...WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMMON.
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM W
TO E ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. APPEARS MODELS ARE REASONABLY
CONSISTENT AND TRACKING THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...BUT
STILL DISAGREE HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. ANY
QUESTION ON PCPN STATE WILL BE THROWN OUT THE WINDOW AS 700MB TEMPS
PLUMMET AOB -15C ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NM BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH 500MB
READINGS APPROACHING -35C. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS...IT APPEARS A
BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AS
SNOW RATIOS RAPIDLY INCREASE...THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEFTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...
500MB WINDS WILL HOWL AT 80-90KTS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THE HEAVIER SNOW/STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED
ON THURS...BUT CAN THEORETICALLY CONCEIVE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THIS INTERFACE ZONE. NONETHELESS...IF SNOW IS NOT THE PRIMARY
MODE FOR SRN NM...HIGH WIND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED WITH THE SACS
BEING THE PRIME CULPRIT. MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS ARE PROJECTED IN
THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR TIME FRAME...EVEN WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEPART NE NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WRAP-AROUND PCPN POSSIBLE.
CONTEMPLATED WINTER STORM WATCHES...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN
THE FOURTH-SIXTH PERIODS AND A BIT OF A STRETCH ATTM...PARTICULARLY
IF THE TRACK ADJUSTS SLIGHTLY. WILL RE-ISSUE SPSABQ AND MENTION THE
AFOREMENTIONED THREATS.
BIG STORY RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE FRIGID TEMPS FOR THE FRI/SAT TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE TEENS FOR
NRN/WRN NM WITH THE SANTA FE/ABQ METRO REMAINING BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. MOST AREAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW LATE YEAR NORMALS.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE RECORD DATABASE SUGGESTS MOST AREAS WILL BE AOA
RECORD VALUES FOR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME WILL BE CLOSE. A
CYCLONIC PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CLIPPING NRN NM. THIS WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
UPCOMING STORM WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL PATCH OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FIFTH OF THE STATE INTO TONIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY
LOCALES NEAR KFMN TAF SITE...BUT MAY BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY OR MID EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AND EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER CHANGE TO COLDER...WINDIER AND EVEN SNOWIER
CONDITIONS IS VERY LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME TOUGH...ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHILE MIN RH VALUES ON TUESDAY REMAIN
ABOVE 25 PERCENT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF
STATE MAY TRIGGER A FEW MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THERE...
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE STILL CENTERS ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING PERIOD. WEATHER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE FOR THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD
AIR MASS WITH SOME OF THE AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE YUKON SHOULD
INVADE THE STATE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL READINGS. BY FRIDAY MANY SPOTS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
THE NORM. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WEATHER CHANGE. THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS STILL BEEN OSCILLATING A LITTLE SOUTH TO
NORTH AND BACK AGAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...BUT WETTING
PRECIPITATION...MUCH MORE SNOW THAN RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS PACIFIC
FRONT CROSSES THE STATE...WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS AND UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A MUCH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE GUSTY AHEAD AND DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY PRETTY MUCH
AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN WIND MAX SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH CRITICAL VALUES
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WED AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THU...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE
THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR SO STAY TUNED TO THAT. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED. A NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD LIKELY MEAN LESS SNOW FOR AT
LEAST CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE THAT LOWLAND AREAS WOULD START AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.
THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME LOOKS LESS UNSETTLED THAN THE WED TO THU
PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES COMING OVER
THE STATE WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND COMBINED WITH PRETTY LOW DEWPOINTS. THUS...HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD BE PRETTY NORMAL WITH THE LOWEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE STABLE AIRMASS FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE...VENTILATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY LOW DURING THE
WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE LESS IN AGREEMENT THAN WAS THE CASE SUNDAY
CONCERNING A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO CONDITIONS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD NO OR LITTLE PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN A LOT. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 24 45 26 41 / 5 5 0 50
DULCE........................... 18 42 17 37 / 5 5 5 70
CUBA............................ 22 45 21 40 / 5 5 0 80
GALLUP.......................... 15 46 20 38 / 5 5 0 50
EL MORRO........................ 19 44 19 40 / 5 5 0 50
GRANTS.......................... 20 48 20 42 / 5 5 0 40
QUEMADO......................... 23 48 23 46 / 10 10 0 40
GLENWOOD........................ 27 55 25 53 / 10 5 0 50
CHAMA........................... 18 38 17 33 / 5 10 5 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 42 27 38 / 5 5 0 60
PECOS........................... 24 42 24 43 / 10 10 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 20 41 15 36 / 5 10 0 30
RED RIVER....................... 18 32 17 32 / 10 10 0 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 37 19 37 / 10 10 0 30
TAOS............................ 21 43 18 40 / 5 5 0 30
MORA............................ 24 42 22 44 / 10 10 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 25 48 23 46 / 5 5 0 40
SANTA FE........................ 24 42 24 41 / 5 10 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 46 23 42 / 5 5 0 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 46 27 43 / 5 10 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 48 29 44 / 5 5 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 49 23 45 / 5 5 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 48 27 44 / 5 5 0 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 50 24 47 / 5 5 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 50 26 45 / 5 5 0 30
SOCORRO......................... 32 55 31 54 / 5 5 0 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 43 24 41 / 10 10 0 40
TIJERAS......................... 29 46 27 44 / 10 10 0 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 48 22 46 / 5 10 0 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 43 25 43 / 5 10 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 48 29 49 / 10 5 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 54 32 54 / 5 5 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 25 48 28 48 / 10 10 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 23 42 22 49 / 5 5 0 10
RATON........................... 21 47 19 52 / 5 5 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 21 48 19 53 / 5 10 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 23 42 24 49 / 5 10 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 25 48 27 56 / 5 5 0 5
ROY............................. 25 46 23 52 / 5 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 30 53 30 57 / 5 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 53 30 57 / 5 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 53 31 61 / 5 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 27 53 28 59 / 5 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 26 54 27 61 / 5 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 55 31 62 / 5 5 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 31 59 30 65 / 5 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 31 56 30 59 / 5 5 0 5
ELK............................. 27 52 27 55 / 5 10 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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