Weather for Rapid City, South Dakota
Lat: 44.08N, Lon: 103.23W
Wx Zone: SDZ026
South Dakota Drought MonitorThe South Dakota Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of South Dakota land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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South Dakota Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KUNR 270449
ESFUNR
SDC055-063-085-093-103-105-123-137-211800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
949 PM MST FRI NOV 26 2010
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM NOV 28 2010 - FEB 26 2011
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCE OF REACHING DIFFERENT
FLOOD LEVELS AT THE GAGES DURING THE VALID PERIOD.
APPROXIMATE CHANCE OF
FLOOD LEVELS (FT) REACHING FLOOD LEVELS
LOCATION MINOR MODRT MAJOR MINOR MODRT MAJOR
-------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT CAMP CROOK
12.0 17.0 19.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
MOREAU RIVER NEAR FAITH
16.0 18.0 21.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
BELLE FOURCHE RIVER AT WY/SD STATE LINE
15.0 16.0 18.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
BELLE FOURCHE RIVER NEAR STURGIS 20 NE
15.0 17.0 19.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
BELLE FOURCHE RIVER NEAR ELM SPRINGS
15.0 18.0 20.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
CHEYENNE RIVER AT WASTA
14.0 16.0 17.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
CHEYENNE RIVER NEAR PLAINVIEW
16.0 17.0 19.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
BAD RIVER AT MIDLAND
21.0 24.0 25.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
WHITE RIVER NEAR KADOKA
13.0 15.0 19.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
WHITE RIVER NEAR WHITE RIVER
14.0 15.0 17.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
WHITE RIVER NEAR OACOMA
15.0 20.0 25.0 < 10% < 10% < 10%
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT CAMP CROOK HAS
A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 4.6 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT CAMP CROOK
12.0 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.6 7.6
MOREAU RIVER NEAR FAITH
16.0 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.2 7.4 8.5 9.1 9.5 11.3
BELLE FOURCHE RIVER AT WY/SD STATE LINE
15.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.4
BELLE FOURCHE RIVER NEAR STURGIS 20 NE
15.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.7
BELLE FOURCHE RIVER NEAR ELM SPRINGS
15.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.4
CHEYENNE RIVER NEAR WASTA
14.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7
CHEYENNE RIVER NEAR PLAINVIEW
16.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.8
BAD RIVER AT MIDLAND
21.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.6
WHITE RIVER NEAR KADOKA
13.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.6
WHITE RIVER NEAR WHITE RIVER
14.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3
WHITE RIVER NEAR OACOMA
15.0 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.1
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER...AND SOIL MOISTURE...AND THE 30 TO 90 DAY
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF
THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR THESE
SITES WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF DECEMBER.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY FOR MORE WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
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