Weather for Bismarck, North Dakota
Lat: 46.81N, Lon: 100.78W
Wx Zone: NDZ035
North Dakota Drought MonitorThe North Dakota Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of North Dakota land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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North Dakota Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KBIS 231442
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-05
5-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-261800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
0840 CDT THU DEC 23 2010
...FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF NORTH
DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID 26 DECEMBER 2010 - 26 MARCH 2011
THE THREE MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOKS COVERING JANUARY...FEBRUARY AND
MARCH SHOW ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA TO HAVE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL RESEARCH GIVEN THE CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS OF A LA NINA AFFECTED WINTER. THESE OUTLOOKS CAN
BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AT THIS POINT...NO RIVERS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ARE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...WHILE NO FLOODING IS OBSERVED...THE
ENTIRE AREA CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS AS THEY ICED OVER.
IN GENERAL THE ENTIRE STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS EXPERIENCED A COLD
AND SNOWY ENTRY INTO WINTER. THIS TRANSLATES INTO AN ENHANCED THREAT
OF SPRING TIME FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW MELT. THE BELOW TABLE
REFLECTS OUR CURRENT MODEL RUNS FOR THE MONTHS OF JANUARY..
FEBRUARY...AND MARCH. SO WHILE THE PROBABILITIES OF FLOODING ARE
GREATER THAN NORMAL IN MANY AREAS...THE IMMEDIATE RISK IS VERY
SMALL AS MIDDLE TO LATE MARCH TYPICALLY MARKS THE ENTRY INTO WARM
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH MARCH GENERALLY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF SNOW MELT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE LA NINA WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING THIS
WINTER TENDS TO CREATE A LATER MELT.
TABLE 1 SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE DEFINED FLOOD STAGES.
FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2.
TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
VALID 26 DECEMBER 2010 - 26 MARCH 2011
DEPARTURE
FROM
---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL
MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING
LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 10NE 10.0 42% 12.0 8% 14.0 --- 17% GREATER
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH 18.0 3% 23.0 --- 30.0 --- N A
MEDORA 15.0 17% 18.0 --- 20.0 --- 14% GREATER
WATFORD CITY 20.0 --- 24.0 --- 30.0 --- N A
SPRING CREEK
ZAP 14.0 --- 18.0 --- 20.0 --- N A
KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 15.0 --- 17.0 --- 20.0 --- N A
HAZEN 1S 21.0 2% 24.0 --- 25.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
HEART RIVER
MANDAN 3W 17.0 --- 23.0 --- 28.0 --- N A
APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 6W 15.0 32% 16.0 15% 17.0 --- 14% GREATER
JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 3W 12.0 24% 14.0 13% 15.0 8% N A
LAMOURE 14.0 26% 16.0 15% 18.0 3% N A
LUDDEN 5SW 12.0 63% 14.0 41% 17.0 5% 49% GREATER
PIPESTEM CREEK
PINGREE 3W 9.0 53% 11.0 12% 13.0 --- 48% GREATER
CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 22.0 --- 24.0 --- 26.0 --- N A
BREIEN 10.0 58% 20.0 3% 23.0 --- 42% GREATER
CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 19S 12.0 4% 14.0 3% 16.0 --- N A
BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 1W 9.0 5% 11.0 --- 13.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
NA = NOT APPLICABLE
NN = NEAR NORMAL
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE
PROBABILITY OF THE RIVER AT A GIVEN LOCATION RISING TO THE INDICATED
STAGE LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.
EXAMPLE: LITTLE MUDDY CREEK NEAR WILLISTON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS THERE IS 90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE
TO AT LEAST 4.7 FEET...BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE
TO AT LEAST 11.7 FEET.
TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 26 DECEMBER 2010 - 26 MARCH 2011
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
_______ ______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
LITTLE MUDDY RIVER
WILLISTON 10NE 10 4.7 7.0 8.1 9.0 9.6 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.7
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER
MARMARTH ND 18 8.4 9.6 9.9 10.4 11.2 11.6 12.5 14.0 16.3
MEDORA ND 15 8.4 9.4 10.1 10.7 11.4 11.9 13.2 14.8 16.4
WATFORD CITY 20 5.4 6.2 7.2 7.3 7.9 8.7 10.3 11.9 13.4
SPRING CREEK
ZAP ND 14 4.9 6.5 7.7 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.5 11.2
KNIFE RIVER
MANNING 15 7.5 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.4 10.2 10.7
HAZEN ND 1S 21 1.9 6.2 8.2 10.2 10.8 12.8 14.5 16.5 17.6
HEART RIVER
MANDAN 3W 17 1.1 3.4 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.5 9.0
APPLE CREEK
MENOKEN 6W 15 4.7 5.1 6.7 10.5 12.0 14.1 15.1 15.7 16.1
JAMES RIVER
GRACE CITY 3W 12 4.7 4.7 4.9 7.4 8.8 10.7 11.7 12.4 14.5
LAMOURE 14 7.4 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.5 9.7 12.1 15.0 16.2
LUDDEN 5SW 12 9.9 9.9 10.5 12.5 13.3 14.1 15.2 15.5 16.2
PIPESTEM CREEK
PINGREE 3W 9 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.7 9.4 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.2
CANNONBALL RIVER
REGENT 22 8.0 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.7 12.4 13.8
BREIEN 10 8.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 11.2 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.5
CEDAR CREEK
RALEIGH 19S 12 4.4 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.2 8.4 8.7 9.4
BEAVER CREEK
LINTON 1W 9 4.8 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.8 8.3
THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOW UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN
SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING HISTORICAL WEATHER PATTERNS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOWPACK...AND SOIL MOISTURE. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
THIS OUTLOOK IN GRAPHICAL FORM ALONG WITH GRAPHS OF STAGE...FLOW...
AND VOLUME ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE.
OTHER USEFUL LINKS INCLUDING EXPLANATIONS OF THIS PRODUCT AND
CURRENT INFORMATION FOR ALL 17 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE MISSOURI
AND JAMES RIVER BASINS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. FIVE-DAY
FORECASTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER
AND FLOOD INFORMATION.
THE NEXT AHPS FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED TOWARDS THE END OF JANUARY.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
$$
AJS
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