A month after the climatologists said that the North Georgia drought was over, the state Environmental Protection Division has caught up. As of today, most watering restrictions have been lifted throughout the region. You are still limited to watering on your assigned odd-even days, either Monday, Wednesday and Saturday or Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday, but you can water any time you like.

The EPD does recommend that you not water between 10 AM and 4 PM, since during those hours more water can be lost to evaporation, making watering less useful. This is a return to level one watering restrictions. Level two restrictions, which we were under for much of 2007, limited watering to between midnight and 10 AM. We never were subjected to level 3 restrictions, which would have limited watering to a single day a week.

Before you turn on those sprinklers full blast, though, be aware that water rates have changed since the last time we were drought free. The big change is a summer surcharge for excessive water use. For example, in Gwinnett County, you could pay twice the normal rate per 1,000 gallons for amounts above 20% of your average use from January through March.

Two years ago, on April 7th, Atlanta temperatures dropped to 30 degrees in the city and 28 degrees here in Lawrenceville in an event known as the Easter Freeze. We might just be in for a repeat this year, to the day.

After today’s rain moves out overnight, we’ll see some sunny weather this weekend, until another cold front passes Sunday night or Monday morning. Behind that front will be some cold Canadian air which could drop temperatures into the 20s Tuesday morning, April 7th. Of course, a lot could change by Tuesday, but I would still hold off on planting annuals for another week or two.

Atlanta ended up with 7.13 inches of rain in March, not enough to make the top ten in terms of rainfall, but almost two inches above normal. While Tuesday’s AJC front page headline shouted “Area’s historic drought is now over,” WXIA’s story had the more telling headline, “Climate Drought Over, But Political Drought Still On.” The bottom line is that level 4 watering restrictions in much of the metro Atlanta area won’t be lifted until we see four months of normal or above normal rainfall, with March counting as the first month. Keep your eye on the water level in Lake Lanier, which has risen almost two feet since the late March rains began, and now stands at 1060.94 feet, still 10 feet below normal summer pool. Increasing that level becomes more difficult, first because since the lake doesn’t have vertical sides like a swimming pool, each additional inch of rise requires more water, and second because as temperatures warm and trees leaf out, there will be less runoff into the lake.

We’ve already gotten a good start on the proverbial April showers, though. I’ve recorded 1.22 inches of rain through this morning for the month, and normal April rain is 3.62 inches. The Climate Prediction Center has revised their precipitation outlook for April as well. Here is what they though was going to happen in their initial outlook back on March 19th:

As you can see, the outlook was for continued dry weather in the southeast. Now take a look at the revised outlook from March 31st:

It’s quite a change. The latest 6-10 and 8-114 day outlooks are also calling for a greater chance of above-normal rainfall through the middle of the month. The latest national drought outlook for April-May shows no drought in most of Georgia, and improving conditions in the the remaining eastern part of the state.

Temperatures over the last few days have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. In the ‘typical’ early March, we’d be seeing a high of 63 and a low of 42. Things are about to switch around closer to normal, and then below normal for next week.

High pressure centered over south Georgia has provided the warm temperatures, and has blocked the colder temperatures and storms to the north from moving south. As the high pressure weakens on Wednesday, a cold front will sweep through, and by Thursday, temperatures will be noticeably cooler. By the weekend, wedging sets up, which will bring cloudy, cool damp weather to Atlanta and North Georgia.

All of this may clear out with a cold front coming through on Sunday, and after that, one more round of cold weather, with temperatures dropping below freezing after St. Patrick’s Day. It’s too early to know how cold it will get, but I hope you took my advice from last week to not put out any annuals. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for colder than normal temperatures for much of the eastern US, and wetter than normal conditions for the southeast, especially early in the period.

Will next week’s cold weather be the last blast of Winter? In 2008, the last below freezing night was on March 25th, but in 2007, a late freeze in early April ruined the spring flower show.

Drought Update

Last week, the Georgia EPD announced that drought watering restrictions had been further reduced. Homeowners and businesses will now be allowed to use soaker hoses or drip irrigation three days per week for one hour per day, following the customary odd-even, midnight to 10 AM schedule previously used for hand watering. Hand watering will continue to be allowed for 25 minutes per day on the odd-even schedule.

The state’s intent here is to provide a means for homeowners to water shrubs and trees, rather than lawns. In face, lawns are specifically excluded from the EPD’s order (PDF). The interesting thing is that there’s no limit to the amount of soaker hose or drip irrigation that can be used – only a limit on the number of hours the system can run. The recommendation is that each soaker hose should be no more than 100 feet long, but by investing in a few of them, and possibly some faucet Ys, even someone with lots of landscape plants should be able to better this year than last.

You may have had heard two pieces of news regarding the drought, and the Atlanta area’s ability to take water from Lake Lanier. The first bit of news is that the metro area has managed to reduce its water use by 20% in June, compared to June 2007. In Gwinnett, recent usage amounts to 77 million gallons per day, compared to 88 MGD a year ago.

While the reduced use probably mostly comes from the outdoor watering ban imposed last fall and modified this spring, it’s still remarkable that Georgians have responded to the crisis as well as they have. Another article I read says that it took residents of Cary, NC 11 years to reduce consumption by 15% in 11 years, and Tampa Bay reduced consumption by 26% in 12 years.

Realistically, though, a more or less total watering ban isn’t going to be a long-term solution to conserving water, unless we want to sacrifice the quality of life afforded by trees, grass and landscaping. More efficient toilets and appliances, less waste through leaky pipes and other techniques will need to be employed to reduce consumption while allowing conservative outdoor use, and that indeed could take years to complete.

The other major story in the news is a promise by a Federal judge that he will decide if Georgia (and the Atlanta area in particular) has the right to withdraw water from Lake Lanier. He views that question as central to coming up with answers to the ongoing water wars between Alabama, Florida and Georgia.

Many people, upon hearing of this think, “What are we going to do, go without water, since we can’t get it from the lake?” Actually, the reality is different. The real question is whether Atlanta has the right to use Lake Lanier as a storage area for future withdrawals from the Chattahoochee river. Atlanta, like many other cities along the Chattahoochee, has the right to take water from the river, and that’s not being questioned. The issue is whether Lake Lanier can be used as a reservoir to supply sufficient water in times of drought.

The argument is that Congress authorized the construction of Buford Dam and the lake for purposes of flood control, hydroelectric power generation from Buford Dam and maintaining a navigable waterway along the lower Chattahoochee. Because water supply wasn’t mentioned in the authorization, the Atlanta area has no right to control how much water is released. (Of course one could wonder how Alabama’s interest in releasing more water in order to support paper mills and power plants in their state would stand up to the same argument).

If you live in Gwinnett, Hall or Forsyth counties, though, this becomes a tougher question. These counties (or cities within them) take water directly from the lake, not the river. I had the opportunity today to talk with a senior official within the Gwinnett Department of Water Resources who said that the department believes that it has a permit to take water from the lake that will meet county needs until at least 2030. This person also said that if the court decides that the lake can’t be used to provide drinking water they weren’t sure what would happen.

Congress could solve this problem by passing a law authorizing the use of Lake Lanier for water supply to the Atlanta area. While passing such a law would be sure to cause a catfight between representatives of the southeastern states, it may be the only way to solve this problem permanently.

Of course, an easier way to fix the problem, at least in the short term, would be to end the drought and get the lake back to its full pool. And, it looks like there might be a chance of this coming up next week. I’ve maintained for a while that tropical weather will be needed to get us out of drought conditions, and right now there’s a developing system headed towards the Bahamas that could develop into a hurricane aimed towards Georgia. The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Disturbance Statement this afternoon, and expects that a tropical depression or storm could develop in the next day or so.

Models indicate the storm could develop into a category 3 hurricane near Jacksonville by Tuesday. If the storm were to make landfall and move into Georgia, we could see enough rain to start bringing stream flows back to normal and reverse the drought’s effects. It’s still too far away to know the exact path (much less to start evacuating coastal areas), but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

As of today, Gwinnett County further relaxed its previous watering restrictions, which were modified on the first of April.  The county’s restrictions now match the state’s restrictions.

The big change is that you can now water newly installed landscaping (whether you install it or a professional installs it) for 10 weeks following installation 3 days per week, following the odd-even watering day rule.  Homeowners with an even address can water on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday, while odd numbered addresses can water on Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday.  No watering is permitted in Friday. You will also need to register with the Urban Agriculture Council and take a short online course on proper watering procedures.  The printable certificate you receive after passing the course must be posted outside your home.

The previous restrictions allowing filling of pools and hand-watering of any plants for 25 minutes on the odd-even schedule remain in place.

Global Warming Update

The next two weeks are likely to bring an important decision on the global warming debate.  On Tuesday, a federal judge ordered the US Interior Department to decide in two weeks whether to put polar bears on the endangered species list due to possibly being threatened by future loss of habitat due to global warming. (AP Article)

If the Interior Department places the bears on the endangered species list it will be the first time a species has been put on the list for potential rather than actual species decline.  The polar bear population has actually grown from 5,000 to 25,000 since 1950. The decision could also have grave economic consequences across the country, since measures would have to be undertaken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the presumed cause of global warming.

If the Interior Department says the bears are not endangered, look for more lawsuits, and the possibility of judges deciding environmental and global warming policy.

Someone passed along a link to this article that outlines the evidence against human-caused global warming (PDF). Written by someone with a background in geology, it refutes many of the commonly held ‘truths’ that AGW proponents use to make their case. Well worth reading.

Gwinnett County today revised its watering restrictions to allow hand watering as permitted by state guidelines, but held off on making changes to its policy for watering of professionally installed landscaping.

As you may remember, in mid-February, the county revised the watering restrictions it had put in place in December to allow filling of swimming pools. It also modified its rules regarding watering of professionally installed landscaping to allow watering on 10 days within 30 days of installation if a sign was posted and the homeowner had completed an online course. The county’s guidelines were set to expire on March 31st.

In March, the county commission delegated the authority for managing watering restrictions during the drought to county administrator Jock Connell. He decided today to relax the restrictions on hand watering to those allowed by the state. That means you can use a hose with a hand-activated nozzle to water your plants for up to 25 minutes three days per week, on an odd-even schedule. People with even numbered addresses can water on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday, while people with odd numbered addressed can water on Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. All watering must be done between midnight and 8 AM. Food gardens can be watered anytime, and the you are not allowed to use your 25 minute window to wash your car.

For the moment the county is keeping the restrictions on watering professionally installed landscaping in place, although Connell told me that that policy may be revised in a month, depending on how much rain falls in April. The new policy takes effect today.

Given the predictions for an extremely dry winter, North Georgia has had much more rain than expected, except for January. For March, Atlanta recorded 5.17 inches of rain, a quarter inch less than normal. Gainesville had 5.25 inches of rainfall, 87% of normal, and Athens had 3.48 inches of rain, or an 1.5 inches less than normal.

On the temperature side, Atlanta averaged 54 degrees, or .3 degrees cooler than normal. Here in Lawrenceville, the mean temperature in April was 53.1, also cooler than normal.

The rainfall outlook for April looks good. There’s at least a chance of rain through Saturday night, and the Weather Service is predicting an above average chance of rainfall and above average temperatures from the 7th through the 15th. For the month as a whole, April should have above normal temperatures and normal rainfall in North Georgia.

It’s probably just coincidence that on the day with the most rainfall since last December, Gwinnett County clarified its plans for outdoor watering this spring. While the county has gone along with the state and allowed the filling of swimming pools, it has declined, at least for the moment, to go with the relaxed hand watering rules announced by the governor a few weeks ago.

In mid-December, the county commission passed a water conservation resolution (PDF) that set limits on outdoor watering that were more restrictive than the state’s level four watering restrictions in effect at the time.  The resolution limited the state’s exemption for watering of new or reconditioned landscape to watering on ten of the first 30 days following installation or reconditioning. The resolution also requires that exempted homeowners and businesses post a sign visible from the right of way stating the exempted area, the installation date, the firm doing the installation/reconditioning, and the property owner’s name.

The resolution also provides additional measures to meet the state’s goal of reducing overall water usage by 10%, including excessive water use charges.  It also says that the county administrator will provide a report to the Commissioners in mid-March that will let them decide which, if any, further restrictions would apply after March 31, when the current restrictions expire.

Yesterday’s announcement further limits the already tight exemptions from the watering ban by limiting the allowed watering hours to midnight through 10 AM  on an odd-even system. Properties with odd addresses may water on Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday, while even addresses may water on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. In addition, in order to be able to water under the exemptions, the resident must register at the Urban Agriculture Council website beginning on March 15th.  All of these further restrictions conform to the restrictions announced by the governor.

So, the bottom line is that the county has not yet approved the 25 minute hand-watering exemption for homeowners or the 90 day exemption for professionally installed new landscaping announced by the state back on February 6th. It did modify its December resolution restricting watering to make it conform to the state’s limit on watering hours and days, along with the requirement that homeowners register with the Urban Ag Council.  Beyond that, residents will have to wait until mid-March to find out if restrictions will be further relaxed, stay the same or tighten.

Right now, the short term outlook for rain looks good, at least for the next two weeks or so. The weather service has released its March precipitation outlook, and it calls for an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall. Longer term, the three month outlook for March through May calls for a 40% chance of above normal temperatures and below normal rain – just what we don’t need to escape the drought.

The rain yesterday and today will certainly help. Through 7 AM today, Atlanta recorded 1.43 inches of rain, while Gainsville got exactly an inch, Athens got 1.23 inches, and Chamblee got 1.86 inches.  Here in Lawrenceville, I’ve recorded 1.34 inches. And, its possible that another inch of rain could fall before the rain ends early Saturday.

Although Georgia’s drought isn’t over yet, Governor Perdue announced some loosening of watering restrictions today that will take effect on April 1st. The changes were made to help the landscaping industry which was facing a very bleak year if the current no watering at all ban remained in place. The changes also resolve the question of what to do about swimming pools this summer.

For most homeowners, the biggest change will be that they can hand water their landscapes for 25 minutes a day, three days a week.  Hand watering means using a single hose with a spray nozzle that has shutoff valve.  Property owners can water between midnight and 8 AM on the same odd-even schedule used for other drought levels.

The new rules effectively mean that you can water your flower gardens and shrubs, but you probably aren’t going to be able to effectively water your lawn, given the time limit.  Remember, food gardens are already exempt from the watering ban. You can’t use your time to wash your car, though.

The rules have also changed for professionally installed landscaping.  Under the current restrictions, professionally installed landscaping could be watered any time for 30 days after installation.  The new rules look similar to the level 2 drought restrictions in place last summer: you can water from midnight to 10 AM on your designated odd/even day for a maximum of 10 weeks. Prior to being allowed to water newly installed landscape, you need to register either with your county extension agent, or at the Urban Agricultural Council website. Registrations will be accepted after March 1st.

State officials are hoping that due to the limits in watering days and times, the amount of water used will be roughly the same as what would be used in the 30 day period under the previous restrictions. Limiting watering of new landscapes to 30 days encouraged people to overwater, and a 10 week period allows more time for shrubs to grow roots and adapt to their new environment.

The third  change allows the filling of swimming pools this summer, previously banned under the level 4 restrictions. This applies not only to large underground or above-ground pools, but also to smaller wading pools used by small children.  Despite the EPD’s estimate that the almost 100,000 pools in the level 4 drought area will use 9 million gallons of water a day, the decision to loosen restrictions was made because by not allowing filling of pools, they could become health hazards.

The last big change in the watering rules affects water utilities. Under the present regulations, utilities could were subject to fines unless their water usage was 10% below what they used from January-March, 2007.  For the summer months, this is being changed to 10% below their April-September monthly average.  In addition, water utilities will be allowed to request additional modifications if their permitted water supply, expected usage  and location specific conditions exist.  For example, Gwinnett County could request that TPC Sugarloaf be allowed to water their golf course due to the upcoming AT&T Classic because of the economic impact the event brings to the county.  The EPD must agree to any additional exemptions.

Of course, as in the past, local water providers can impose more stringent restrictions as they see fit. I think that there is hope that the drought will loosen its grip as summer starts, and EPD recognizes this.  But don’t be surprised if we go back to the status quo should rain fail to develop.

Gwinnett County has added a new page to its website that addresses some of the issues with the ongoing drought, and the county’s water consumption from Lake Lanier. One of the main points is makes is that Gwinnett draws a much smaller amount from the lake than the Army Corps of Engineers releases from Buford Dam. That’s pretty well illustrated in the following chart, which compares water usage over the last two months:

The county also addresses the issue of water consumption, noting that per-capita water usage has fallen from 80 gallons per day in the 1990s to 71.7 gallons per day on average from 2003-2006. Of course, this measure doesn’t account for the growth in the county’s population over the last ten years.

The ‘blame the drought on the population growth’ theme has grown louder in the past few weeks, including an article in this morning’s AJC. While the Gwinnett website notes that growth in the county as measured by the number of building permits has slowed tremendously over the past few years, I found a chart on another page of the website that shows that despite the growth, the county continues to use about the same amount of water from the lake:

Starting in 1999, when the county’s population was about 570,000 people, water usage stabilized at just under 80 million gallons per day. With a few fluctuations along the way, in 2005, the county was drawing just over 80 MGD, with a population that had grown by 160,000 to 730,000. The county points out that it’s not the growth that’s causing the problems, it’s the lack of rainfall.

Some of North Georgia got some welcome rain on Tuesday, as the front ahead of the low pressure system moved across the state yesterday afternoon. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded .97 inches of precipitation yesterday, with most of the rain coming between 6 and 7 PM. That’s the most rain recorded here in a single day since back on August 24th, two months ago. As of now, a total of 1.3 inches of rain has fallen here from this system. By the way, the runoff from my roof was enough to fill a 250 gallon storage tank I installed and attached to two downspouts.

Other parts of the state have seen varying amounts. Here are some rainfall numbers from yesterday:

Atlanta Hartsfield: .56 inches
Alpharetta: .84 inches
Allatoona Dam: .66 inches
Athens: .27 inches
Cleveland: .38 inches
Cumming: .30 inches
Gainesville: .16 inches
Helen: .55 inches
Rome: .62 inches

Overall, it looks like there might have been less rain in the northeast part of the state containing the Lanier basin than here, but it’s probably going to be more useful to look at the storm total precipitation – rainfall today is likely to occur in the Georgia mountains. That being said, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation is over with from this system.

Water Restrictions Update

Ever since the state started level 4 water restrictions late last month, state EPD Director Carol Couch has been researching recommendations to further reduce water usage, with a report expected to be given to Governor Perdue this week. That report has been issued, and the result is that the Governor has ordered all water suppliers to reduce consumption in their systems by 10% from their average usage last winter, beginning November 1st. Systems out of compliance will face as of yet unspecified fines.

While some of the usual suspects have decried the move by the Governor as showing a lack of leadership, in the long run, it moves the responsibility for deciding how to allocate water usage to the local level, where specific needs can be evaluated within the city or county, and decisions can be made that will ultimately affect the economic well being of that county. Did you really want some minion in the state EPD to decide on further water restrictions that might be appropriate for, let’s say Atlanta, but don’t fit the needs of a county like Gwinnett or Hall?

Meanwhile, state climatologist David Stooksbury is holding a press conference in Athens tomorrow morning to discuss the current drought situation, and the long range outlook for winter and spring. I look forward to hearing what he has to say.