Wednesday is slated to be the last day of the relatively cooler than normal temperatures we have seen for the first three weeks of April. Temperatures will rise to the upper 70s, and will reach the 80s by the weekend. It’s likely to stay warmer than normal for the next few weeks, as the first real Bermuda High takes control over the southeastern United States.

In the long run, though, May could be the warmest month through the end of the summer, relative to normal. The image at right shows the latest modeling by the CFS, or coupled forecast system. (Click to enlarge the map). It shows temperatures becoming steadily cooler after a slightly warmer than normal May in the Southeast, and much cooler than normal for the eastern half of the country in July, August and September

The trend through the end of the year points to colder than normal weather as well, as can be seen by the second graph, which shows forecast temperature anomalies by three month period through the end of the year, by which time virtually the entire country, except for the San Francisco Bay area and much of New England should be cooler than normal.

Tornado Reports

Numerous confirmed tornadoes stuck north and central Georgia over the last ten days. On Friday, April 10th, twelve confirmed tornadoes and two suspected tornadoes touched down, with the bulk of them stretching from Columbus, through Americus and Cordele. Additional touchdowns were reported in Jasper and Sparta.

Then on April 19th, there were two more tornadoes, one again in the Columbus area, and the other in Cherokee County. Only one injury was reported in the April 10th incident, and two injuries were reported in the April 19th incident.

Georgia saw its first severe weather of 2009 on Wednesday evening, with reports of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms causing one death and multiple injuries. It appears that most of the damage was recorded south of Atlanta, and along the Georgia-Florida border.

Preliminary storm reports showed an EF0 tornado in Warner Robins, an EF4 tornado in Washington, in Wilkes county, which traveled 16 miles and moved a two ton truck 60 feet, an EF1 tornado in Eatonton causing one injury, additional reports of EF1 tornadoes in Jasper and Newton counties, an EF2 tornado near Moreland in Coweta County, and an EF3 tornado near Sparta in Hancock County, which caused the fatality as its 140 MPH winds traveled an eight mile path.

Here is the preliminary report from the Weather Service as of late this afternoon:

TAYLOR COUNTY…THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR TOMMY PRUVIS ROAD AND SB EUBANKS DRIVE AT 545 PM. THE INTERMITTENT TOUCHDOWNS WAS 3 TO 4 MILES LONG AND 50 TO 100 FEET WIDE. SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN…A MOBILE HOME DAMAGED AND ONE BLOWN OFF ITS FOUNDATION. IT WAS RATED AS AN EF0 WITH WIND AROUND 70 MPH.

JASPER COUNTY…THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS AT 800 PM… APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN LENGTH…STARTING 9 MILES WNW OF SHADY DALE TO 2 WNW OF SHADY DALE…LIFTING ABOUT 810 PM. IT WAS RATED A WEAK EF1 WITH WIND ESTIMATED AT 100MPH. MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO FIVE HOMES AND MAJOR DAMAGE TO A SMALL COTTAGE.

COWETA COUNTY…THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 923 BRADBERRY ROAD…APPROXIMATELY THREE MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE STORM CONTINUED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT SEVEN MILES ACROSS SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY…AND 1 MILE WIDE AT THE WIDEST POINT. THE TIME OF THE TOUCHDOWN WAS 830 PM… AND RATED AS AN EF2. AT LEAST A DOZEN HOMES DAMAGED ..SOME SUBSTANTIAL.

PUTNAM COUNTY…THE STARTING POINT WAS 7 WSW OF EATONTON AROUND 715 PM AND EXTENDED ABOUT 7 MILES IN LENGTH AND ONE QUARTER MILE WIDE. THE EF2 TORNADO UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES…DOWNED POWER LINES CLOSED U.S. HIGHWAY 129…AND AT LEAST ONE PERSON INJURED FROM DEBRIS AS THE STORM WENT FROM WILLARD TO EASTONTON AND BRIEFLY TRAPPING OTHERS IN THE HOME OR CAR. A RESTAURANT COMPLETELY DESTROYED…AND SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE.

WILKES COUNTY…THE STORM REACHED THE WESTERN PART OF THE COMMUNITY OF TYRONE…NEAR HIGHWAY 44 AT 710 PM AND EXTENDED FOR 16 MILES IN LENGTH AND ONE HALF MILE WIDE. THE STORM WAS RATED AN EF4 WITH DEBRIS FROM THE DEMOLISHED HOME BEING CARRIED AT LEAST ONE HALF MILE. THERE WERE FIVE OTHER BUILDINGS RECEIVING MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE…AND A CHICKEN HOUSE WAS DESTROYED AS WELL.

There were also numerous hail reports, with golf ball size hail reported in Walton County, and 1.75 inch hail in Henry, Coweta and Clayton Counties.

For the next few days, it’s going to be colder than normal, with highs only around 50 degrees and lows below freezing at least until Wednesday. This is likely to balance out an already warmer than normal February. As of yesterday, Hartsfield airport’s mean temperature was 2.7 degree above normal. At this time of year, our normal high should be 58 degrees, with lows around 38. However after this cold spell passes, the outlook is for warmer than usual temperatures through the first week in March.

Long range, the outlook for March issued today by the Weather Service says we should see equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, and for March through May the trend of variable temperatures and drier weather holds as well.

North Georgia got plenty of rain today, and it looks like there’s more to come. As of 7:30 Wednesday, I’ve recorded 1.79 inches of rainfall, the most since October 8th, when another massive low pressure system rolled through Georgia and brought 2.31 inches of rainfall.

Other areas in the Peach state got even more.  Since 7 PM yesterday:

Alpharetta – 1.84 inches
Atlanta – 1.76 inches
Athens – 0.76 inches
Cartersville – 1.65 inches
Chamblee: 1.91 inches
Dunwoody: 2.07 inches
Gainesville: 1.5 inches
Macon – 2.25 inches (and record precipitation for December 10th)
Peachtree City – 2.2 inches
Rome – 1.65 inches

In addition to the rain, there was a tornado sighting today near Tallapoosa.  The weather service reported an F0 tornado early this morning 3 miles northeast of that location in Haralson County. Closer to Atlanta, flooding is forecast for the Big Creek in Alpharetta.

All the rain has been good news for Lake Lanier.  The latest reading has the lake level at 1051.17 inches, which is .18 of a foot, or about 2.2 inches higher than it was early this morning.  And, the rain is not over yet.  Overnight a second wave of wet weather will visit north Georgia, possibly doubling the amount of rain we’ve had already.

By tomorrow night, the upper low that has been responsible for much of the rain will move northeast of Atlanta, and the cold front associated with it will bring a chance of snow to the northwest part of the state. Because of the warmup due to the rain, it’s not expected to produce any accumulation and if there is any, it should be confined to the northwest corner of Georgia. Folks in Mississippi aren’t so lucky, though.  The weather service has issued a winter storm warning for much of eastern Mississippi, predicting 3-5 inches of snow. In Louisiana, half an inch is possible.

The two maps below show the tremendous difference a tropical system can make in dampening the effects of a drought. The map at left shows drought conditions in Georgia as of Tuesday, August 19th, when almost ten percent of the state was in exceptional drought conditions and only two percent was drought free. The right hand map shows conditions as of Tuesday morning the 26th at 7 AM. Now, none of the state is in exceptional drought, and 16% is drought free.

Remember, the cutoff for the drought maps was 7 AM Tuesday, which was before a good bit of the rain hit North Georgia, so I expect to see continued improvement with next week’s drought monitor as well. Lake Lanier has also risen just over two feet from the rainfall brought on by Fay.

The weather service has investigated the severe weather brought about by Fay, and has issued a report saying that there were six tornadoes in Georgia brought on by the storm. Most of the damage was in Hall and Jackson counties. Three EF1 tornadoes with 90 MPH winds were verified in Hall, where trees were knocked down and damage was reported to an elementary school.

Another tornado with 100 MPH winds touched down near Commerce in Jackson County, while two additional EF0 tornadoes with 70 MPH winds were reported in Monroe and Wilkes counties.

We may have some more opportunities for drought relief in the next week to 10 days. Gustav was a hurricane, and then was downgraded to a tropical storm when it made landfall in Haiti. It has moved a bit south, and is expected to increase in intensity to at least a category 3 hurricane. The media is comparing Gustav to Katrina, which hit New Orleans three years ago today. Despite the timing coincidence and the likelihood that Gustav will become an intense hurricane before it makes landfall sometime on Monday, it’s still too early to know exactly where the storm will make landfall. Recent updates to the forecast track have moved landfall west of New Orleans, and the further west it is, the less likely it will have any effect on the Atlanta area. A track further east, as some models are suggesting would make the storm more like Ivan in 2004, which brought intense rainfall to North Georgia.

And if Gustav isn’t enough, the Hurricane Center is now tracking Tropical Depression 8, located to the east of Puerto Rico. Later this afternoon, the storm will gain enough intensity to be named Hanna. Instead of moving south of Cuba as Fay and Gustav are doing, Hanna is likely to become a category 1 hurricane by Labor Day, moving north of the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas and heading west towards the Florida coast.

I suspect we’ll have a better idea of what both these storms will do as the weekend unfolds.

The June heat wave continued to set records today throughout the east coast. Here are some of the new records:

Atlanta: 98 degrees, with the old record of 97 set in 1995. In addition, this morning’s low temperature of 76 was warmer than the previous high minimum temperature for June 9th of 75 degrees.
Athens: 102 degrees, besting the previous record of 99, set in 1926.
Columbus: 97 ties the record set back in 1986
Macon: 100 ties the previous record from 1954.

Other locations in Georgia, including Augusta, Gainesville, Albany and Savannah also saw highs in the upper 90s, but failed to break any records. Here at my unofficial weather station, I recorded 97 degrees around 2:30 PM. Additional records from around the eastern seaboard:

Raleigh, North Carolina – 99 degrees breaks previous record of 98 set in 1999
Richmond, Virginia – Tied record high of 98 set in 1999.
Atlantic City NJ – 98 degrees beats previous record of 96 set in 1984
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – Tied record high of 95 set in 1999
Hartford, Connecticut – Tied record high of 96 set in 1984
Providence, Rhode Island – 97 degrees tops previous record 95 set in 1984
New York LaGuardia Airport high temperature of 99 tops previous record of 95 from 1984
Newark, New Jersey ties old record of 99 set in 1933

If it’s any consolation, all this heat comes after what turned out to be a very cool spring for most of the country. The average spring temperature of 54.4 degrees was .5 degrees cooler than the 20th century average.

Georgia experienced its 36th coldest spring in 114 years of recordkeeping. Only Texas and the states in the BosWash corridor were above normal. On the precipitation side, California had its driest spring ever, prompting the declaration of drought conditions in the Golden State. The long suffering Mississippi valley had much wetter than normal conditions, with Missouri having its fourth wettest spring, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. Georgia was drier than normal, it’s 26th driest. While Georgia remains in a drought, by the end of May, 24% of the country was considered to be in a wet spell.

The Mother’s Day weekend storm brought late-season weather misery to much of the country over the weekend, and continues to cause trouble in the Northeast US. And, it looks like the rainy weather is likely to continue.

The storm initially caused tornadoes in Oklahoma and Missouri before moving into Georgia early Sunday morning. The Atlanta area was placed under a tornado watch as early as Saturday afternoon and the storms struck overnight, with two EF2 tornadoes striking in Carroll and Douglas counties shortly after 4 AM. It had a 25 mile long path, and caused large scale property damage.

An hour later, a third tornado tore into Clayton county near I-675. Also an EF2, this storm had a 13 mile track into Henry, Rockdale and Newton counties with wind speeds of up to 130 MPH. Further south, yet another EF2 tornado caused considerable damage in the city of Macon when it went through Bibb and Twiggs counties, including destroying two businesses and creating a lot of damage at Macon State College.

The fifth tornado caused one death and three injuries as it moved through Laurens county north of Dublin around 6:30 AM. It destroyed several mobile homes in its seven mile path. It was also an EF2. Another tornado touched down near Vidalia around 7:30 AM, and the Weather Service thinks that more tornadoes may have touched down elsewhere in the state.

After causing so much damage, the storm left the area, moving north. In its place, high pressure rushed in, bringing 30 MPH winds to the Atlanta area and causing at least one fatality in Gwinnett when the top of a tree snapped, killing a woman in Duluth. The storm is tearing through the Mid-Atlantic states today, bringing late season snow to central Pennsylvania, causing power outages in New Jersey along with gale force winds that could be compared to what one would see in a tropical storm. Intense flooding and 50 MPH winds were common in Delaware.

Another round of severe weather is possible again this weekend, beginning on Wednesday as a front moves into Georgia and then stalls south of Atlanta–eerily similar to what we saw last Friday. By Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center is calling for a better than 30% chance of severe thunderstorms lasting into the evening. The storms could stick around through the weekend, causing problems for the AT&T Classic in Duluth.

Despite causing angst for golf fans, the wet weather will be keeping the drought at bay. We’ve already had more rain this month than all of May last year, and with storms predicted for the next two weekends, we’re likely to end up with near-normal precipitation for the fourth month in a row. The Weather Service has officially acknowledged that the La Nina conditions are dissipating and should be gone by midsummer, which also bodes well for normal rainfall.

Some folks in North Georgia got an unusual late March sight: snow flurries fell briefly this afternoon.  Although it was 45 degrees outside, much colder air aloft combined with lower pressure caused by a short wave passing through squeezed out just enough moisture for the flakes, which melted on contact with the ground. Temperatures today are 20 degrees cooler than normal, and the northern two thirds of the state will see a freeze tonight.  If you succumbed to the spring planting urge over the weekend, either bring your plants in, or at least cover them over.

Tonight’s freeze won’t be anywhere near as bad as the Easter Freeze of 2007. though.  Not only is it likely to be a bit warmer than the 28 degrees recorded last April, but not as many plants have started to bloom. A freeze in late March isn’t too unusual.  For metro Atlanta, the typical last frost occurs sometime between April 1st and April 15th.

Communities along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are suffering through one of the worst flooding seasons in years.  The map below shows the potential for flooding this spring in the United States, according to the Spring flood outlook:

The heavy snowfall in Ohio is partially responsible for the current round of flooding, while up in the Northeast, record snowfalls in New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine increase the flooding potential once the snow melts. Of course, here in Georgia the drought has limited the potential for any flooding according to the Georgia Flood Outlook.

The Weather Service has updated its report from the March 14th tornado that struck downtown Atlanta. New estimates show wind speeds of about 120 mph when the twister passed over the World Congress Center, compared with the original estimate of 100 MPH, and traveled slightly further than what was originally estimated.    The storms the following day are now estimated to have caused three tornadoes instead of two, according to the updated damage report. The third tornado occurred in Butts County, south of Atlanta.

And finally, there is at least one Australian scientist who thinks that global warming is over, and the earth is now entering a cooling phase. The peak of global warming actually occurred in 2000, and for the last eight years, the trend is towards cooler weather.

The last 24 hours have brought perhaps the most significant severe weather to North Georgia since the Dunwoody tornadoes back in April, 1998.

National Weather Service officials said that a F2 tornado touched down at Simpson Road and Burbank Drive just west of the Georgia dome at 9:38 PM Friday night. The 200 yard wide twister traveled through downtown Atlanta and proceeded about six miles, until it ended at Braeburn and Josephine Roads in DeKalb County.

There was extensive damage to the Georgia Dome, where viewers of the SEC Basketball tournament were surprised when things began to sway. Additional damage was reported throughout downtown, including the CNN building and Centennial Olympic Park. Fortunately, no one was killed in the evening storm. You can read about the storm here, here and here.

It was the first time on record that a tornado touched down in downtown Atlanta.

This was just the opener for an Ides of March repeat on Saturday that brought two additional rounds of storms. The first passed through the area before daybreak, bringing rain and thunder, but no tornado reports. The second round started around 1 PM, and brought tornado reports from Rome to Athens as several additional storms rolled through, including a second round of severe weather in downtown Atlanta. Take a look at the damage reports from across the state.

The worst of the Saturday afternoon storms hit north of Atlanta, moving through Floyd, Cherokee, Hall counties. Where I’m at, between Lawrenceville and Lilburn, the afternoon brought two hundredths of an inch of rain, much less hail and tornadoes, even as I watched the storm move through on TV and turned off the repeated alerts on my weather radio. Radar estimated that upwards of four inches of rain fell on the hardest hit areas north of the city, which includes the Lake Lanier basin, so maybe that’s the silver lining to this.

Winds are already picking up as the cold front associated with the low pressure system that caused all this enters Georgia. There will be another chance of a storm as the front passes through. Then all will be calm again for a few days, until the next round of storms arrives, perhaps on Wednesday.

For those of you interested in following storms, there are several resources on this site that will help you. The first is the Severe Weather Outlook, which describes the risk of storms for the next few days. The Mesoscale Discussions page provides information about storms that the weather service is concerned about. The Watches and Warnings page lists current weather hazards across the country, although you can zoom in to the state or even local level to read the warning text. And, the Storm Reports page lists all reported damage and severe weather over the last 4, 12 or 24 hours nationally or by state.

How did the storm affect you? Let everyone know by making a comment below.

This afternoon’s thunderstorms were responsible for hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes to Georgia, but on the upside, they brought needed rain as well.  In advance of an approaching cold front, the storms fired up from west to east, with the worst of the storms affecting the Atlanta area between 5 and 6 PM.

Looking at the Georgia storm reports,  there were reports of damaging winds bringing down power lines and trees in west Georgia, tornado spottings in southwest Georgia and quarter inch hail.  In metro Atlanta, some minor flooding was reported in Tucker, and there were tornado warnings issued for Fulton and Gwinnett counties based on radar soundings, however no tornadoes were reported in the metro area.

The storm did bring some needed rain to the area.  As of 7:30 PM, here are some reported rain amounts:

Alpharetta: 1.18 inches
Johns Creek: 1.18 inches
Dunwoody: 1.21 inches
Gainesville: 1.17 inches
Lawrenceville:  0.77 inches
Dahlonega: 0.98 inches
Jonesboro: 0.36 inches
Dallas: 1.01 inches

The good news is that the heaviest rains occurred on the north side of the metro area, and should add to the runoff into lakes Lanier and Allatoona. With the cold front pushing in, any additional rainfall tonight will be light.  And, with more rain predicted for the end of the week, we might be able to make a dent in the slow refilling of the lakes.

Last week, much of the eastern part of the country shivered under conditions that brought below freezing weather to Florida, and the coldest weather in three years to Atlanta.  This week, things have turned around, and extremely warm temperatures are the rule along the Ohio River valley.  Take a look at the temperatures recorded around 10 PM this evening:

For January 7th, that’s extremely warm.  For example, at 9:50 PM, it was 63 in Cincinnati (about 10 degrees warmer than in Atlanta). Their normal high for this time of year is 38 degrees; yesterday was 33 degrees above normal, with a low temperature only dropping to 58. In New York, it’s currently 59, with temperatures yesterday running 22 degrees above normal. In general, the warm temperatures of the last two days have wiped out the effects of the cold spell, and for the month so far, temperatures east of the Mississippi are running one to two degrees above normal.

You can see that west of the warm weather, temperatures are much colder.  This is a classic situation for thunderstorms and tornadoes. There are tornado watches in effect for northern Illinois, northern Ohio, and much of Michigan, as well as for much of Missouri.  The line of storms is caused by the same system that wreaked so much havoc on Northern California and Nevada earlier this week. The storms will reach the Atlanta area Tuesday evening, and after a few days of welcome rain, we should be back to more normal temperatures, at least for a while.