With October now in the history books, it’s pretty clear that north Georgia had its second very wet month in a row. Athens reported 9.14 inches of precipitation, with only 1937 being wetter, with 11.23 inches. In Atlanta, Hartsfield-Jackson airport recorded 8.71 inches, with only 1995′s Hurricane Opal bring more October rain than last month, with 11.04 inches.

Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 7.47 inches, in Gainesville, they had 11.2 inches or rain, with Macon and Columbus still top-ten wet, with 6.37 and 6.39 inches of precipitation, respectively. Even more of an eye-opener is the two month totals for September and October, shown graphically below:

The two month period saw 17.65 inches of rain fall in Atlanta, second only to 1888, when 18.25 inches fell. Both Athens and Macon had their wettest September and October ever, with 19 inches in Athens and 17.05 inches of rain in Macon. Columbus had it’s third wettest September-October with 11.69 inches, and in Lawrenceville, which received some of the heaviest rainfall in the September flooding, I recorded 23.3 inches for the period.

Usually heavy late-summer rain is brought about via tropical storms or hurricanes affecting Georgia, but not this year. (This season has had the least tropical activity since 1997, with one month to go before it ends). And of course the one benefit to all the rain is that it returned Lake Lanier to full pool, marking a recovery from the drought.

October also proved to be cooler than normal for North Georgia. Atlanta’s average temperature of 61 degrees was 1.9 degrees cooler than normal, while in Athens, the average of 60.7 degrees was 1.1 degree less than normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded an average of 59 degrees, cooler still.

It looks like we’ll have a chance to dry out during the first two weeks of November, though, and perhaps see temperatures a bit warmer than normal for mid-Autumn. The short term forecast is for dry weather, while the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are also calling for warm and dry. For the month as a whole, the Climate Prediction center calls for a 33% chance of drier than normal conditions, and equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

Enjoy November, because the winter forecasts from December through February I’ve seen are almost unanimous in their call for a cold, wet winter.

It’s starting to feel like we really are making up for all that missing rainfall from the drought. Today’s rainfall here in Lawrenceville of 2.52 inches brings the total rain for October here to 4.55 inches — more than an inch above what would be expected for the entire month. It’s the wettest October in at least five years.

Atlanta set a new rainfall record for October 12th today, with 2.5 inches. That makes the yearly rainfall for Hartsfield Airport to 50.68 inches. Normal annual rain for Atlanta is 50.2 inches, so we’ve met that milestone with nearly a quarter of the year to go. Athens also set a rainfall record for the day with 3.83 inches. The previous October 12 rainfall record for both cities was set in 1994. Lake Lanier is now at 1070.58 feet above sea level, having gained over half a foot during the day. The lake is now less than half a foot from full pool, although it would take a lake level of 1085 feet before it would be considered flooded. The last time Lanier was at full pool was in September, 2005.

Flooding is occurring, though. Suwanee Creek in Suwanee is at 9.79 feet, with flooding beginning at 8 feet. Big Creek in Alpharetta and the Chattahoochee River in Vinings are also at flood stage. I saw where the Yellow River had escaped its banks into the flood plain in my area.

Unfortunately, it looks like we’re up for more rain on Wednesday. After a relatively pleasant day tomorrow, the rain will return, and according to the latest estimate from the Weather Service, shown at right, we could have another two to two and a half inches through Thursday evening, with higher amounts in the northeast Georgia mountains. If that scenario does pan out, expect more possible flooding, since the ground will be even more saturated than when the rain started this morning.

Once all the rain does go away on Friday, we will be in for some cooler weather over the weekend. The cold Canadian air that has brought an early Winter to much of the Plains states is moving east. Right now, overnight temperatures for the weekend are predicted to be in the mid 40s, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up a bit lower than that.

Speaking of cold in the west, I’ve got to take note of the fact that in Denver, Colorado, temperatures dropped to a chilly 18 degrees Saturday morning, and didn’t get out of the 20s, forcing the cancellation of the third game of the baseball playoffs. The low temperature was the coldest it’s been so early in the season in Denver. Temperatures also dropped below the freezing mark this morning in Chicago. It was 34 in Dayton, Ohio and 28 in Grand Rapids, Michigan on Sunday morning. Record cold temperatures were felt in Montana, and the cold in Idaho may make it difficult for farmers in Idaho to harvest their potato crop.

It doesn’t look like things are going to get much better in Georgia at least through the end of the month. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for continued chances of above normal precipitation, and colder than normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period. Long-range winter forecasts call for a cold and wet winter in the southeast, a topic I’ll try to cover in more detail later in the week.

The weather service has reported 24 hour rainfall totals for North Georgia ending at 8 AM on Monday, September 21st. Here are some highlights:

Athens: .65 inches
Atlanta: .87 inches
Canton: 3.95 inches
Carrollton: 7.66 inches
Cartersville: 1.68 inches
Cleveland: 3.68 inches
Chamblee: 4.28 inches
Cumming: 1.80 inches
Doraville: 5.37 inches
Gainesville: .82 inches
Lafayette: 7.20 inches
Marietta: 3.54 inches
Rome: 2.61 inches
Sautee: 5.18 inches
West Point: 4.33 inches

If you think we had plenty of rain over the last six days, it looks like day seven is the one to beat them all. As of 6:50 this morning, my rain gauge is reporting 5.84 inches of precipitation fell…this morning. The AJC is reporting that Spaghetti Junction is closed because of heavy rain (both I-85 and I-285). In Gwinnett, two feet of water is blocking the intersection of Scenic Highway and Sugarloaf Parkway, and there is additional flooding in downtown Lawrenceville. The weather service is reporting 7 inches of rain in Lilburn, over 3 inches in downtown Atlanta, and 9 inches in southwest Atlanta.

So, that brings the total rainfall for the last week to 12.57 inches. In Atlanta, 3.72 inches of rain fell on Saturday, breaking a record. I’m sure there will be more records set today. Flash flood warnings are in effect until later this morning, with flood warnings until

And if you’re wondering about Lake Lanier, it’s rising rapidly as well. After being fairly stable until the weekend, the runoff and excessive rain has cause the lake’s level to rise by a foot since Sunday morning, and I imagine it will continue to go up. The current level is 1065.81 feet.

Much of the southeast US has been caught up in a blocking pattern over the past few days, with an upper level low pressure system stuck over the Mississippi/Louisiana area causing wet, tropical air to be brought up from the Gulf of Mexico. While there’s no tropical storm bringing in all this precipitation, the effects are much the same.

In fact, the three day total rainfall I’ve recorded at my home of 4.45 inches is the largest three day total since exactly five years ago on September 16-17, 2004, when 4.73 inches of rain fell as the remnants of Hurricane Ivan came through the state. And it’s possible that we’ll get even more rain later today to beat that record.

Rainfall amounts are varying widely across north Georgia. While I don’t yet have official readings for today, yesterday, Atlanta recorded .76 inches of rain, while I received 2.23 inches. Other areas with a lot of rain yesterday include Chamblee with 1.99 inches and Charlie Brown field with 1.16 inches.

Unfortunately, the rain is going to stick around through the weekend and possibly into the first part of next week before we get to a dry spell. With the ground already saturated from rain, much of Georgia from the Atlanta metro area south has been placed in a flood watch until Saturday morning. As of now, there are no reports of flooding, but it’s certainly possible.

The 2.5 inches of rain that fell yesterday at my house was welcome, seeing that it was more rain than had fallen in the previous four weeks of August. In fact, it was the largest one day total rain since 2.65 inches fell on July 7th, 2005, when Tropical Storm Cindy came through north Georgia.

Looking at some of the rainfall totals from around the area, it looks like the northeast part of Atlanta got the most rain for a change:

Chamblee: 2.74 inches
Columbus: 2.27 inches
Albany: 2.07 inches
Gainesville: 1.37 inches
Cartersville: 1.30 inches
Peachtree City: 1.93 inches
Atlanta Hartsfield: 1.57 inches
Marietta: 1.18 inches
West Atlanta: 0.88 inches
Athens: 0.25 inches

Lake Lanier benefited as well, rising from 1064.55 feet to 1064.69 feet.

The last three weeks or so have been exceptionally dry around my house, with less than 1/4 inch of precipitation since the last real rainfall back on June 10th. Although it rained in Duluth, downtown Lawrenceville and along US 78, not a drop reached here.

According to the weather service, there was .23 inches of rain at Hartsfield Airport yesterday, .54 inches at Peachtree DeKalb in Chamblee, .18 inches of rain at Charlie Brown Field in west Atlanta and only .01 inches in Marietta. While the amounts may vary, I’ve seen similar situations over the last few weeks when popup thunderstorms have ringed around metro Atlanta, bringing rain to some, but not all.

After getting above normal rain in May (normal for Atlanta in may is 3.95 inches; Atlanta got 4.54 inches) June ended up being warmer and drier than normal. Normally Atlanta gets 3.63 inches of rain in June, this year, 2.34 inches fell. The average temperature in June of 79.8 degrees was three degrees above normal.

July is normally one of the wettest months of the year, with an average of 5.12 inches of precipitation in Atlanta. This number may be skewed a bit because tropical storms can bring a lot of rain in a short period of time. The random nature of thundershowers can also skew the numbers. For example, last year, Hartsfield Airport recorded 7.17 inches of July rainfall, while 2.5 inches fell in Lawrenceville. On the other hand, in 2007, I recorded 5.53 inches of July precipitation, while only 1.85 inches of rain fell in Atlanta.

Be glad you’re not in New York City. Look at this report from the Weather Service in New York:

DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS IN JUNE…HERE ARE SOME INTERESTING FACTS TO NOTE:

THIS JUNE IS TIED FOR THE 8TH COOLEST ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 67.5…3.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL…WHICH ALSO OCCURRED IN 1897.

THIS WAS THE COOLEST JUNE SINCE 1958…WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 67.2 DEGREES.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURRED ON 23 OUT OF 30 DAYS THIS JUNE…OR 75 PERCENT OF THE MONTH.

CENTRAL PARK HAS NOT HIT 90 DEGREES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THIS YEAR. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 1996.

CENTRAL PARK HAS NOT HIT 85 DEGREES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THIS YEAR. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 1916. THIS HAS ONLY OCCURRED 2 OTHER TIMES…1903 AND 1886.

THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 90 OR GREATER THIS YEAR WAS IN APRIL. THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 90 IN APRIL…BUT NOT IN JUNE WAS BACK IN 1990.

THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 85 OR GREATER THIS YEAR WAS IN MAY. THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 85 IN MAY…BUT NOT IN JUNE WAS BACK IN 1903. THE LAST TIME THAT CENTRAL PARK HIT 85 IN
APRIL…BUT NOT IN JUNE WAS ALSO BACK IN 1903.

THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE REACHED IN CENTRAL PARK IN THE MONTH OF JUNE WAS 50 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 2003.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE DIPPED BELOW 60 DEGREES 11 TIMES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS IN 2003 WHEN IT OCCURRED 17 TIMES.

IT WAS THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WITH 10.06 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IS 2003 WITH 10.27 INCHES.

THERE WERE 19 DAYS THIS JUNE WHERE THERE WAS AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS HAS NEVER OCCURRED IN CENTRAL PARK.

AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAINFALL WAS REPORTED ON 23 OUT OF 30 DAYS THIS JUNE.

Compared to the past few years, the weather this spring in North Georgia has been wet. Virtually the entire state reported above-normal rainfall in April, which followed a wetter than normal March.

Some unofficial reports of rainfall totals in April were over ten inches in South Georgia, while the highest official total was 7.3 inches in Alma, over four inches above normal. Atlanta was 1.56 inches above normal for April, and Athens had 1.12 inches above normal precipitation.

May has gotten off to a wet start as well. As of May 6th, Atlanta had recorded 2.05 inches of rain, which is 1.31 inches above normal for the first week in May. With this morning’s storms and chances of more wet weather still ahead through the weekend, we are close to reaching the 2.8 inches of precipitation recorded for all of May, 2008, and will have more May rain than since at least 2004. Normal May rainfall in Atlanta is 3.95 inches for the entire month.

Lake Lanier continues to fill as well. The lake level is at 1064.95 feet at Buford Dam, 7 inches above where it was when the current rains started a week ago, and just six feet below full pool.

The latest drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center says,

Several inches of precipitation are forecast in the short-term for the last vestiges of the once expansive drought that covered the interior Southeast. Given the expected heavy precipitation through the forthcoming weekend, and nothing indicating enhanced probabilities for significantly below-normal rainfall through the end of July, it seems likely that we will finally be able to close the books on this protracted and at one time serious, large-scale drought that has been affecting the Southeast for the last 3 years.

And, State Climatologist David Stooksbury reported earlier this week that conditions on Lakes Lanier and Hartwell have improved to mild drought from moderate drought because of the increasing lake levels. The rest of the state is drought free. He reports above normal soil moisture for most of the state, and normal to above normal stream flows. He says,

May is typically one of the drier months in Georgia. Additionally, with high temperatures routinely in the 80s and plant water use very high, moisture loss is accelerated. We normally expect the soils to start to dry out this month.

As we progress through the summer into the middle of fall, moisture loss from the soil – due to evaporation and plant use – is normally greater than rainfall. With normal weather over the next several months, Georgians can expect to see a drying of the soils. However, this is normal and does not mean that Georgia is heading back into a drought.

Two years ago, on April 7th, Atlanta temperatures dropped to 30 degrees in the city and 28 degrees here in Lawrenceville in an event known as the Easter Freeze. We might just be in for a repeat this year, to the day.

After today’s rain moves out overnight, we’ll see some sunny weather this weekend, until another cold front passes Sunday night or Monday morning. Behind that front will be some cold Canadian air which could drop temperatures into the 20s Tuesday morning, April 7th. Of course, a lot could change by Tuesday, but I would still hold off on planting annuals for another week or two.

Atlanta ended up with 7.13 inches of rain in March, not enough to make the top ten in terms of rainfall, but almost two inches above normal. While Tuesday’s AJC front page headline shouted “Area’s historic drought is now over,” WXIA’s story had the more telling headline, “Climate Drought Over, But Political Drought Still On.” The bottom line is that level 4 watering restrictions in much of the metro Atlanta area won’t be lifted until we see four months of normal or above normal rainfall, with March counting as the first month. Keep your eye on the water level in Lake Lanier, which has risen almost two feet since the late March rains began, and now stands at 1060.94 feet, still 10 feet below normal summer pool. Increasing that level becomes more difficult, first because since the lake doesn’t have vertical sides like a swimming pool, each additional inch of rise requires more water, and second because as temperatures warm and trees leaf out, there will be less runoff into the lake.

We’ve already gotten a good start on the proverbial April showers, though. I’ve recorded 1.22 inches of rain through this morning for the month, and normal April rain is 3.62 inches. The Climate Prediction Center has revised their precipitation outlook for April as well. Here is what they though was going to happen in their initial outlook back on March 19th:

As you can see, the outlook was for continued dry weather in the southeast. Now take a look at the revised outlook from March 31st:

It’s quite a change. The latest 6-10 and 8-114 day outlooks are also calling for a greater chance of above-normal rainfall through the middle of the month. The latest national drought outlook for April-May shows no drought in most of Georgia, and improving conditions in the the remaining eastern part of the state.

Widespread March rainfall has caused all but a few North Georgia counties to become drought free. According to information from Georgia Climatologist David Stooksbury, the only counties still considered to be in moderate drought are Union, Towns, Rabun, Lumpkin, White, Habersham, Hall and Stephens. A few northwest Georgia counties are drought free, while the remainder, including Gwinnett, are classified as abnormally dry, mostly due to the long-term rain deficit we’ve experienced for the past four years.

Atlanta has recorded 7.12 inches of rain in March, over two inches more than normal. For the year, the deficit is 1.09 inches. With 7.03 inches of March rain in Athens, the Classic City is only .39 inches below normal for the year. With an additional inch or so expected Tuesday through Thursday, both cities could be back to normal rainfall by the end of the week.

While the plentiful precipitation seems to have encouraged Atlanta area flora to show their spring colors more strongly than in recent years, the hidden subtext of the drought picture, which I assume will be reflected in Thursday’s drought monitor, is that the counties that make up Lake Lanier’s drainage basin, including Hall and Habersham, are still in a moderate drought. Last week’s rainfall raised Lanier’s level by over a foot, but the lake is still ten feet below full summer pool.

The current climate pattern of a weak La Nina transitioning to neutral is responsible for much of the changes to a wetter spring. According to Stooksbury:

Currently the climate pattern is a weak La Niña pattern tending toward a neutral pattern. A typical weak La Niña spring brings wet weather across the northern piedmont into the mountains, just like north Georgia experienced in March.

Moisture conditions are in good shape across most of the state’s northern half, but the typical moisture recharge period will be ending soon. By the middle of April, plants are in full spring growth and using tremendous amounts of water.

By the middle of April we can expect the soils to begin to dry because of increased plant water use. Additionally, by the middle of April, temperatures are routinely in the 70s to low 80s. This means that evaporation will increase. This late spring and summer drying is normal.

The outlook is for a few more weeks of recharge followed by the normal drying of the soils due to plant water use and evaporation. May is usually a dry month. Little recharge is expected from May through October, but this is typical for Georgia.

The big unknown is what the tropics will bring Georgia this summer and winter. Much of the state’s late summer and fall rain comes from tropical disturbances. Without moisture from the tropics, August through October can be very dry. At this time there are no clear indications of how much rainfall the summer will bring.