Over the last few days, it has become obvious that the destruction caused by Katrina to New Orleans, Mississippi, and the Gulf Coast has gone from bad to worse. The Internet Community is responding by declaring September 1st through 5th as Hurricane Katrina Blog for Relief Weekend.

The idea is that each blogger will recommend a charity for donations to Katrina relief. In my case, I’m recommending the Atlanta Red Cross. If you would like to make a donation, click here. I have made a generous donation, and I encourage you to donate what you can.

If you prefer, you can select another charity for your contribution; Instapundit maintains a comprehensive list.

Hurricane Katrina is going to rank as one of the worst natural disasters ever to hit the United States. You just don’t think of Americans being called refugees. The Atlanta area is already becoming a major destination for people fleeing the wrath of Katrina. Several hundred sick and injured people from New Orleans hospitals were flown into Dobbins Air Force Base today, and will be taken care of by Atlanta area hospitals. Colleges and universities in Georgia have announced they will accept students that were planning to attend school in the storm affected area.

People in Gwinnett will certainly make their contribution to the Katrina relief effort. You can help by making a contribution to the Atlanta Red Cross.

Technorati categories: flood aid and hurricane katrina

If you make a contribution, make sure you log it here.

By now, I think that most people have had a chance to understand the devastation that Hurricane Katrina caused in Louisiana and the Gulf Coast. After watching the news tonight, I am amazed not only at the destruction in Mississippi and Alabama that the storm caused, but at the fact that the predictions made by the weather service for New Orleans seem to have come true.

While the country will have to deal with the effects of Katrina (and everyone is encouraged to contribute to the Katrina Relief effort), there are a few weather-related observations that need to be made:

• The effects of a hurricane can be measured not only by wind speed, but by the barometric pressure at the eye of the storm. When the storm hit New Orleans, the barometric pressure was 915 millibars, or 27.02 inches of mercury. It had been as low as 902 millibars, or 26.64 inches of mercury. With pressure as low as this (“normal pressure” is about 30 inches), it’s no wonder that the storm had such a damaging effect.
• The intensity of the hurricanes this season in general, and Hurricane Katrina in particular, was not caused by global warning, and there wasn’t anything anyone could ‘do’ to prevent it. Hurricanes are Nature’s way of equalizing the temperature differences between the heat of the tropics and the cold of the Arctic. Essentially hurricanes move the heat of the oceans up into the upper atmosphere. As David Chandley explained in a talk at the NFL Luncheon today, were it not for hurricanes, the tropics would be even warmer, and the polar regions would be solid ice.

If there’s any good news to be had on the weather front, it’s that the weather in Atlanta for Labor Day weekend is expected to be wonderful. The heat and humidity of summer is losing its grip. By the weekend, we could be seeing temperatures in the low to mid 80s during the day, and lows in the low to mid 60s, with low humidity.

On the tropical storm front, Tropical Depression 13 has become Tropical Storm Lee as of 5 PM today.

It continues its slow moving path, and is not expected to affect the United States.

Hurricane Katrina made landfall this morning in southern Louisiana, and fortunately did not make a direct hit on New Orleans. It appears that the worst of the storm’s effects will be in Mississippi, although as of now, fatalities appear to be minimal. The storm will still be marked as a memorable one, with even the Atlanta Journal-Constitution issuing an Extra edition for newsstands this morning with late breaking news from Louisiana.

As of early this evening, Katrina had been reduced to a tropical storm, although it will continue to bring rain and the possibility of tornados as it moves northward through Tennessee, Kentucky, and the northeast through the end of the week.

In Georgia, numerous tornado warnings were issued in the metro Atlanta area from about 5:00 PM through mid evening. As could be expected with the center of the storm so far to the west, it appears that the worst of the damage was in Carroll County, close to the Alabama state line. Additional rain bands from the storm will continue to affect our area through mid afternoon on Tuesday. Models predict that Katrina will continue heading north through Mississippi before taking a more easterly path once it reaches the Tennessee border, meaning that we are likely to see, at most, a few inches of rain.

With the end of August at hand, it’s time for some cooler weather, and it looks like that may happen shortly after Labor Day. Long range models predict cooler than normal temperatures (and lower than normal rainfall) for Labor Day week, with a distinct possibility of nighttime temperatures dropping below 60 degrees on several evenings.

As far as tropical weather goes, TD 13 appears to have petered out, and is unlikely to affect US weather at all.

I copied this advisory from the National Weather Service. It was issued at 5:13 PM EST on Sunday afternoon. The only thing I changed was all uppercase to mixed case to make it easier to read.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Katrina Continues to Approach the Mississippi River Delta… …Devastating damage expected…

Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks…perhaps longer. At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure. All gabled roofs will fail…leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed.

The majority of industrial buildings will become non functional. Partial to complete wall and roof failure is expected. All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed. Concrete block low rise apartments will sustain major damage…including some wall and roof failure.

High rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously…a few to the point of total collapse. All windows will blow out.

Airborne debris will be widespread…and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles. Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved. The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons…pets…and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck.

Power outages will last for weeks…as most power poles will be down and transformers destroyed. Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards.

The vast majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted. Only the heartiest will remain standing…but be totally defoliated. Few crops will remain. Livestock left exposed to the winds will be killed.

An inland hurricane wind watch is issued when sustained winds near hurricane force…or frequent gusts at or above hurricane force…are possible within the next 24 to 36 hours.

I was in New Orleans in late June. It’s a wonderful city. I hope there is something left by this time tomorrow.

Hurricane Betsy hit Louisiana in September, 1965, as a category 3 storm, with winds of 135 MPH, following a track similar to what we are seeing with Katrina. She caused 8.5 billion dollars of damage, in 2000 dollars. Four years later, on August 16th, 1969, Camille struck as a category 5 storm, with winds of 200 MPH. Forecasters believe that Katrina may rank along with these two powerful hurricanes in terms of effects and damage.

New Orleans is hunkering down. The city is being evacuated, and about 100,000 people are taking refuge in the Superdome. Katrina is presently located 150 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It’s a category 5 storm, with winds up to 165 MPH. If it remains a Category Five storm, it will be one four category 5 storms ever to make landfall in the United States. With expected storm surges of up to 25 feet, the city could be underwater by this time on Monday.

The image above was taken around 4 PM this afternoon, and shows the eye of the storm, and the bands of rain affecting Louisiana and Mississippi. This powerful storm has hurricane force winds extending out 100 miles in each direction from the center. The very first rain bands are beginning to affect central and north Georgia this afternoon.

The image to the right is the National Weather Service estimate of precipitation from 8 PM Sunday through 8 PM Tuesday. Atlanta could receive 3 to 4 inches of rain, along with the possibility of tornadoes.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 13 is now a reality. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Lee by sometime Tuesday afternoon. The projected path takes the storm northeast of the Dominican Republic by Friday afternoon, and could be affecting the east coast of the US by the day after Labor Day.

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen, with 115 MPH winds, making it a category 3 storm. It’s likely that the storm will continue to strengthen before making landfall late Monday. Possible wind speed when the storm strikes the Gulf Coast is around 135 MPH, making Katrina a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The big change in the forecast over the last 36 hours has the storm making landfall further west of what was previously predicted. The storm is currently forecast to make landfall over New Orleans, Louisiana. Earlier forecasts had it in the Florida panhandle. The landfall location is particularly important given the strength of this storm, and the proximity of oil wells and refineries in the area. If the storm hits the wrong spot, well, if you think gas prices are high now, just wait.

As far as the impact on the Atlanta area, we’ve gone from being on the right-hand side of the storm’s center, and predicted minimal effects, to being in the center of the storm’s path, which would bring the most wind damage, to being on the east side of the storm, which could bring bands of heavy rain to Georgia; similar to what happened with Cindy and Dennis earlier this year.

While forecast models are becoming more consistent with the predicted landfall location, I think that there is still some variability on what will happen with the storm’s interior path. Two recent forecasts I’ve seen still predict the storm’s center passing through North Georgia. The exact path the storm takes, and how fast it curves back east after making landfall, depends on what happens with upper air patterns now over the Midwest states. As with most forecasts, getting an exact prediction more then three days out is almost impossible.

So, enjoy the early part of the weekend, before we begin to see the approach of Katrina, but keep an eye on the forecast, and be ready for the possibility of some nasty weather for Monday and Tuesday.

At 3:30 PM on Thursday, Katrina officially became a hurricane, with wind speeds of 75 miles per hour. At 5 PM, the center of the storm was located about 15 miles off the Florida East coast, between Ft. Lauderdale and Boca Raton. The satellite image below was taken just before landfall, around 4:15 PM.

The expected path of the storm continues to place it south of the metro Atlanta area. The image to the right is the Weather Service’s estimate of total precipitation between 8 AM today, and 8 AM Tuesday. As you can see, most of the rain will be to the east of the storm’s track.

Metro Atlanta could end up with as little as a quarter inch of rain, or as much as several inches depending on the storm’s path. Areas to our east, including Savannah and Augusta could end up with six to nine inches of rain by the time the storm moves to our north late Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Katrina continues to gain strength as it approaches the Fort Lauderdale/Palm Beach Florida coast. This morning’s wind speeds were near 60 MPH, and landfall is expected sometime late tonight, or early Friday morning.

The picture, courtesy of NOAA, shows Katrina at about 8 AM eastern time, centered over the Bahamas.

While Katrina’s expected path once it exits the west coast of Florida early Saturday morning has changed to a more northerly and easterly direction, forecasters are still unsure exactly where she’ll end up. One model puts the storm track along northeast Florida, while another positions the second landfall close to the Alabama border.

Based on the current projected track, however, the storm is likely to have less of an effect on the Atlanta metro area than either of the two storms that approached the area back in July. The most intense wind and rain from a hurricane occurs to the east of the storm’s center. Given that Katrina’s center looks like it will pass to our southeast, we may avoid the worst of the storm, while southeast Georgia bears the worst of it on Monday.

After more than a month with almost no tropical weather in the area, it looks like Tropical Depression 12 could change things this weekend. Ever since Dennis came through the area in July, succeeding tropical storms have either been Mexican only events, or have moved up the Atlantic Ocean, never posing a threat to land. However, the soon to become Tropical Storm Katrina is taking dead aim at the central Florida coast, and could become a hurricane before it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast next week.

Currently located about 270 miles southeast of the Florida coast, the storm boasts winds of 35 MPH. It is expected to hit the East coast of Florida early Friday morning, and then travel across the state, exiting near the Tampa Bay area early Saturday. After that, the storm will move across the open Gulf waters, where it could gain hurricane strength on Sunday.

It’s still unclear exactly how this storm will affect North Georgia and the metro Atlanta area. Computer models show different solutions for direction and intensity, and until the storm becomes more defined, we’ll just have to wait.

In the meantime, cooler, drier air remains just to our north, as we continue to experience the three H’s of summer weather. However, the boundary should push into our area sometime later today or early tomorrow, bringing a few nice days of weather, with less rain, heat, and humidity. That should last through the weekend, until we begin to feel the effects of Katrina early next week.