Although the official hurricane season doesn’t officially get started until Monday, June 1, the first tropical depression of the season was declared earlier today. Tropical Depression One lies over the Gulf Stream to the east of Virginia, and may develop into Tropical Storm Ana later tonight or Friday before it dissipates over the weekend. The storm is not expected to affect land.

The Weather Service released its 2009 hurricane season outlook recently, calling for a 50% chance of a normal season, a 25% chance of a below normal season, and a 25% chance of an above normal season. They estimate 9 to 14 named storms, with four to seven hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.

Meanwhile, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is calling for a lighter than normal hurricane season. He is predicting three storms with tropical force winds to reach the US coast, with possibly two being hurricanes and one being a major hurricane. This compares to eight storms affecting the US coast in 2008, with four hurricanes and no major hurricanes.

Storm names for 2009 are Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda.

Keep up with tropical weather activity this season at our Tropical Center.

With winter just a month away from a meteorological perspective, it’s time to take a look at some of the forecasts that have been issued for a glimpse of what the season will bring.

We’ll start with the always interesting and sometimes reliable Old Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction for the southeast, which includes much of North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. Overall, they expect cold temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation, with more precipitation in the south. Look for above average snowfall, and the coldest weather in mid to late December, mid-January and mid-February.

On the other hand, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi says to expect colder than normal weather for much of the east, with December being the coldest month relative to normal, a January thaw, and then cold again in February. The East can also expect more snow than last year.

WSB Radio forecaster Kirk Melhuish released his preliminary winter outlook this week, and it is similar to Accuweather, with ‘bookends’ cold spells at the beginning and end of the season, and less snowfall and slightly less rainfall than average. Kirk will issue his final winter forecast at the beginning of December.

Finally, what does the Weather Service say? They haven’t done a press release on their outlook as they have done in past years, so all you can do is look at their 3 month outlook for December-January. Unlike the other forecasts, the Climate Prediction Center thinks we have a better chance than normal for warmer weather. They also predict a 33% chance of drier weather, especially in mid and south Georgia.

Georgia certainly got a taste of early cold weather this week, with temperatures about 20 degrees below normal. While it appears that most of the Atlanta area core counties managed to escape a freeze, outlying counties, including Carrollton, Dallas, Athens, Cartersville and Peachtree City all dropped below the freezing mark. Even Macon recorded a low of 32 this morning. Today was the worst of it, though, and morning temperatures should be warmer as the week wears on. The next chance for freezing weather may not be until the 9th of November, closer to the normal first freeze date.

Meanwhile, New England is digging out of its first major storm of the season. Snow totals include 17 inches in Star Lake, NY, 12 inches in Saranac Lake, NY and 10 inches in Hazleton, PA. Normally, that area doesn’t get an inch of snow prior to November 15 north, and December 1 south, so this snow was definitely early.

There’s actually a relationship between the cold weather in Atlanta and the snow in the northeast. The deep upper low that brought the bad weather to New England acted as a roadblock to the cold, high pressure air from Canada, forcing it south instead of east. Now that the low is finally moving out to sea, the cold air can move north again as a more normal west to east flow takes over down here.

Hurricane Gustav made landfall about 10 AM in Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 70 miles southwest of New Orleans. At this point, it looks like New Orleans will not face a repeat of the disaster brought about by Hurricane Katrina, although I suspect that we’ll know more in the morning. Here’s a satellite picture of Gustav taken about 9:45, just before landfall:

Gustav is expected to linger in the Arkansas/Texas/Oklahoma area for a few days dropping plenty of rain, possibly up to 20 inches in some areas. At some point, it’s going to get picked up by a low pressure system and taken northwest into Ohio. This means that except for the few showers Georgia is seeing today from extended hurricane bands, we aren’t likely to have any effects from Gustav.

Don’t worry though, because there is more where that came from. Hanna was upgraded to a hurricane this morning, about a day faster than what was previously forecast by the Tropical Prediction Center. The latest estimate is that Hanna will not change position much through Tuesday before becoming a category 2 hurricane early Thursday and beginning a northward trek that could lead to landfall in Georgia. The current estimate puts landfall near Savannah sometime on Friday, followed by a rapid move north into the Mid-Atlantic.

There is still some uncertainty over exactly where Hanna will make landfall and the exact strength of the storm when it does, but no matter whether it’s Brunswick, Savannah or Charleston, I wonder if the networks will pay as much attention to Hanna as they are to Gustav. In any case, as I heard Joe Bastardi say on the radio this afternoon, Atlanta and Macon are likely to get only a “glancing blow” from Hanna. Bastardi pointed to Hurricane Floyd back in 1999 as his guess of a comparable storm.

If Gustav and Hanna aren’t going to be drought-busters in Georgia, maybe the third time will be the charm. The Hurricane Center today identified Tropical Depression Eight, which by afternoon became Tropical Storm Ike. Ike has been brewing as a low pressure system off the coast of Africa for the past few days, and will move across the Atlantic fairly rapidly, probably turning into a hurricane by Wednesday. By Saturday, it will be in roughly the same location that Hanna is today.

While it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen to Ike once he approaches the Bahamas. It could follow Hanna north along the east coast, or move into the Gulf coast either through or south of Florida. The European model has Ike moving into the eastern Gulf and then recurving north through Alabama and Georgia sometime after September 10th.

And don’t look now, but there’s another strong tropical wave southeast of the Cape Verde Islands that the hurricane center says could develop into yet another tropical depression or storm in the next day or two. If it does, it will be named Josephine.

Joe Bastardi and is team over at Accuweather.com have released their 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, and it calls for an even dozen named storms this year. While the number of storms will be close to normal, the group is predicting a greater than normal chance of landfalling hurricanes on the East coast, especially between North Carolina and New England, including one major hurricane in that area.

They are predicting a relatively normal season in the Gulf area, with two or three storms expected to hit the western gulf. Accuweather selected 1985, 1989, 1996 and 1999 as analog years with conditions similar to what is expected this summer. Interestingly enough, the CSU team selected ’89 and ’99 as analog years as well, although they predicted a larger number of storms.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts just a little over two weeks away, on June 1, while the Eastern Pacific season starts on May 15. Both seasons end on November 30. In a typical year, however, the bulk of the storms occur from mid-August through the end of October.

Atlantic storm names for 2008 are Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

Accuweather.com has released its Winter 2007-2008 forecast, and it calls for much warmer temperatures than normal for most of the country. Long range forecaster Joe Bastardi says that the beginning and end of the season will probably be closest to normal, but the period from mid-December through February could be one of the top ten warmest winter periods, with the bulk of the warmth centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.

Bastardi also has a warning for the drought starved southeast:

“We will know in the next three to four weeks whether a storm from the tropics might arrive to help the southeast drought situation. If that doesn’t materialize, those states are looking at a very dry winter, with precipitation amounts less than half of normal in some areas.”

A combination of La Nina conditions and warming Atlantic Ocean temperatures are the chief culprits for the warm weather. East of a line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest could see temperatures above normal 75% of the time.

Update 10/25/07 – here’s a link to a more detailed winter forecast from Accuweather.

110 Degree Summer Temperatures in 2080?

You may have read the banner headline at the top of Thursday’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution — NASA Predicts Scorcher for Atlanta. The article focused on the potential for daily high summer temperatures of 110 degrees in Georgia by 2080, 15 to 20 degrees above what we typically see now. The article was based on a press release from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, which in turn was based on a peer reviewed article that appeared in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. I tried to read the original article, which unfortunately is only available to subscribers, but was able to locate the article’s abstract.

The interesting thing to me is that the focus of the research seemed to be the effects of colder sea surface temperatures on precipitation probabilities in the eastern US. While the abstract says nothing about carbon dioxide levels or global warming, it appears that the bottom line is that if CO2 levels continue to increase by 2% per year, and you get a summer with extreme low eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, which would result in fewer storms in the eastern US, then daytime temperatures could range between 100 and 110 in cities like Atlanta.

Kirk Melhuish Weighs In on Global Warming

WSB Radio meteorologist Kirk Melhuish released a position paper this week that reflects his observations on global warming. The four page missive is well worth a read, both for his opinions on the subject, and for his command of English literature. He cautions readers to be wary of the extremists on both sides of the global warming debate, but acknowledges that there does appear to be strong evidence of some human-caused effects in the rise of temperatures.

He questions our current ability to correctly model Earth’s climate such that we can make accurate predictions about what the climate will be like 100 years from now, and thinks that it may take another 20 years before the competing scientific theories are analyzed properly to determine whether what is being predicted now is correct.

AccuWeather Releases 2007 Hurricane Projections

Hurricane expert Joe Bastardi and the weather forecasters at AccuWeather put out a press release this week with their predictions for the 2007 hurricane season. They forecast between 13 and 14 named storms, and 3 intense hurricanes category 3 or higher. While still a season with greater than normal hurricane activity, they are predicting fewer storms than Dr. Gray at Colorado State University, who is calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes.

AccuWeather thinks that the area most likely to be hit by hurricanes this year is the Gulf Coast, with the most danger from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, through Florida, and west to the mouth of the Mississippi.

If the predictions hold true, it will be bad news for an area that got clobbered in 2004 and 2005. However, it could mean an end to the drought that is affecting Georgia, since there is a good likelihood that storms in the eastern Gulf end up bringing rain to Georgia. Dr. Gray will update his forecast one more time, just before the tropical season officially starts on June first.

Some random weather observations as Georgia’s (lack of) April showers will bring forth May Flowers:

• The third of an inch of rain we got on Thursday didn’t go very far to help the rain deficit we’ve had this year — about half of what we would get in a ‘normal’ year. This week, virtually all of Georgia is officially in a moderate drought, or worse, according to the Georgia Drought Monitor. The most extreme drought conditions are in the area affected by the fires in southeast Georgia.
• Accuweather.com is saying that the United States may be facing another Dust Bowl similar to what we had in the 1930s. The idea is that strong hurricane seasons correlate with dry conditions in the Plains states. Meanwhile, another forecaster is saying he doesn’t see an end to the dry conditions in the Southeast until tropical weather comes to disrupt the prevailing weather patterns.
• The next two weeks will probably bring warmer than normal conditions to much of the country, including Georgia. We’ll see temperatures in the mid 80s, when the normal high should be around 75 degrees.
• Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is predicting another busier than usual hurricane season this year. The early indications are for a return of the storms to the Gulf Coast states, and continuing possibilities for hurricanes in the Northeast.
• I spent some time in Asheville, North Carolina this week, and if you think the Atlanta area suffered because of the Easter cold spell, you should see Asheville. Temperatures there dropped to 20 degrees Easter weekend, and most of the spring beauty one could expect to see at Biltmore Estate was wiped out. It seems that most of the trees were just beginning to send out leaves, and they all froze, giving a mid-winter look to the mountains. Viburnums, Azaleas, Wigelias — all were wiped out.
• Lawrencevilleweather.com will be moving to a new server sometime next week. As more and more people visit the site, and with the addition of more maps and features, performance hasn’t been exactly great. The server move should make for faster page displays. It’s scheduled for Monday night, although that could change. There should only be a 15 minute disruption, and I’ll be checking things out on Tuesday morning to make sure everything’s running OK.

Much of the eastern half of the country has experienced unusually warm weather so far this winter. New York City finally saw its first flakes of snow this week–the latest first snowfall ever recorded. Temperatures in North Georgia so far this month are between seven and eight degrees above normal. This weekend, the Atlanta area could see temperatures around 70 degrees. Newspapers have run articles lamenting poor sales of winter coats and snow blowers.

If you’re thinking that it’s time to sharpen your lawnmower blades and get out the gardening gloves, you would most likely be wrong.

The split-flow upper air pattern that has been keeping the cold air up in Canada has begun to change, and at least one prominent meteorologist thinks that we could be seeing one of the coldest 30 day periods in the last 50 years.

Accuweather put out a press release on Monday featuring comments from forecaster Joe Bastardi. Bastardi says “the mild weather we’re experiencing now will be a distant memory,” and notes cold air will be moving across the country the week of the 15th, and a cold weather pattern will dominate the second half of the month.

The central part of the country is seeing this change now, and they are going to have a long slog this weekend. A slow-moving front stretches from East Texas to Maine, and is the dividing line between cold and warm air. It’s also bringing a lot of precipitation, as snow in the north and west, and as rain in areas stretching from Louisiana through southern Ohio. In between there’s going to be a major ice storm stretching from the Texas-Oklahoma panhandle through parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Once all of this moves through by the middle of next week, the cold air will settle in.

Georgia is likely to miss all the weather excitement, at least through Monday evening. By that time, we may see some rain as the front exits the area, and the real cold air will stay out of the way for a few more days. But, by the week of the 22nd, we could see highs only in the mid 40s, and lows in the low 20s; much colder than normal.

Although winter outlooks typically don’t arrive until mid-October, Accuweather has released a preliminary look at the likely weather for Winter 2006-2007. Not surprisingly, the forecast is pretty typical of what you would expect for an El Nino year.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi of Accuweather says that the weather along the east coast will likely be stormier than normal — typical of El Nino years. Bastardi predicts a relatively mild start to the season in the Northeast, followed by cooler weather in January and February. Whether this will lead to a greater chance of snowfall is really a matter of timing, since the cold Arctic air must be in place at the same time the storms are.

In the west, Bastardi says the weather is likely to be dryer than normal due to an extended high pressure system, and warmer than normal as well.

None of this is particularly earth-shaking, but again these are September predictions, three to five months out. Look for more specific Winter outlooks to be issued next month by all the major forecasters.

Taking a look at the weather in the short term, though, the cold front passed through the Atlanta area this afternoon, dropping dewpoints by 15 degrees between 2 and 6 PM as the storms cleared out. Behind the front is a taste of fall, with temperatures dropping into the 50s, and highs for the next few days not breaking 80. We may be getting into one of those annoying patterns where bad weather arrives just in time for the weekend for the next few weeks, with long range forecasts calling for a chance of rain this weekend, and again at the end of the month.

A few quick weather ideas today …

The hurricane season starts tomorrow, and Drs Gray and Klotzbach of Colorado State University have updated their hurricane forecast for the year … somewhat. They haven’t changed their ideas at all from their original forecast last December, calling for 17 named storms, and 5 intense hurricanes. That’s slightly over what the National Hurricane Center is calling for, and more than what Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi is calling for, with 3 major storms making landfall, with the most activity in the Texas area early in the season, and the Carolinas and East Coast late in the season.

Meanwhile, protesters are at the headquarters of NOAA in Maryland calling for the resignation of National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield because he refuses to endorse the idea that global warming is causing the increase in tropical activity. Mayfield’s view is that the uptick in hurricane activity is the result of a multi decade cycle that has repeated itself over the years, and happens to be in a strong phase now. He does not believe that global warming has anything to do with it. Accweather’s Bastardi has a similar opinion in his article from the Durham Herald Sun.

Metro Atlanta may get its first real chance of significant rainfall since back on May 10th on Thursday and Friday. After spending the last two weeks dominated by a high pressure ridge, the trough that had been further west is moving east, and could bring some rainfall, although it appears the worst of it will be further north. After all the heat over the last ten days, I’ll be glad for some rain.

And, the weather service has updated its forecast for June. They predict that warmer than normal temperatures will dominate much of the southern plains states, from Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas north to the Canadian border. Below normal rainfall is predicted in an oval centered over Nebraska, and extending southeast to the Tennessee-Alabama border. For Georgia, the weather service is calling for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

The shorter term forecast is for below normal temperatures and normal to below normal rainfall in north Georgia from the 6th to the 14th. They have been advertising this drop to below normal temps for the last few days, and it seems like they’re pushing it back much the way they kept predicting the current warm spell to start in early May, and then pushed it back until it finally got here. We finally got the above normal temperatures, and I suspect that we will see the cool spell as well.