If it seems pretty warm out there, you’re right. Today’s high temperature of 95.1 in Lawrenceville at 2:20 PM makes it the warmest day of 2009 so far. Of course, the 93-95 degree high temperatures we’ve had for the last two weeks are 5-8 degrees above normal. In Atlanta, it’s been over ten days since the low temperature dropped below 70 degrees, another sign of a heat wave. For the month to date, Atlanta is 2.9 degrees above normal, with an average temperature of 79.5. In Lawrenceville, where nighttime temperatures don’t have the same heat island effect as Atlanta, the average is 77.4 degrees.

All of this isn’t being helped by the lack of rainfall — none here in the last two weeks. Now I know that it has rained in places around Atlanta — just not here. Rain chances increase from this afternoon to tomorrow evening, but after a cold front passes through Sunday night, it’s back to warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather for the work week.

There is a possibility that we might be seeing some of the warmest weather of this summer over the next few days. With temperatures in the mid 90s today and in the upper 90s in metro Atlanta on Friday and Saturday, we will be seeing the warmest weather since August 6th, 2008, when temperatures reached 94 at Hartsfield Airport, and 99 here at my home thermometer in Lawrenceville.

The warmest temperatures of 2008 were also recorded in June, with the high for the year of 98 on June 9th in Atlanta. Today’s record high temperature was 101 degrees, set back in 1944. A warm stretch back in 1933 set the records for Friday, Saturday and Sunday with 99, 98 and 98 degrees, so we will be coming close to breaking a temperature record.

After the official start to summer on Sunday, we’ll be in for more normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s predicted for next week. In the longer term, however, the trend may be towards lower then normal temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center’s July outlook released today calls for a 33% chance of cooler than normal weather over much of the Southeast, including all of Georgia. The three month outlook through September indicates equal chances of above or below normal temperatures for the east coast, except for southern Florida. Above normal precipitation is forecast in July south of an Atlanta to Columbus line, so it looks like south Georgia will continue to be wet. South-central and southeast Georgia had the most rainfall on record for the March, April and May time period.

The August heat wave looks like it will go on through Thursday, but at least here at my house, today was the warmest day so far in 2008. It got up to 99 degrees (well, 98.7) at 2:10 PM, topping the 97.1 reached on both June 8 and July 10. It could have been worse though: with the dew point in the low 60s, the heat index was only 102 degrees.

Temperatures reached the century mark today in Augusta, Milledgeville, Savannah, Athens and Vidalia. For whatever reason, it stayed a bit cooler in Atlanta today, with highs only in the low 90s. Tomorrow, the humidity goes back up, and by tomorrow afternoon, the approaching front will bring a chance of rainfall, and at least a temporary end to the excessive heat we’ve been seeing recently.

Hurricane Forecast Update

We’re about ready to get into the strongest part of the hurricane season, from mid-August through the end of October.  The folks at Colorado State University have updated their tropical forecast and are now calling for more storms than they predicted back in April and repeated in June.

Instead of 15 named storms, the predicted total has been upped to 17, with nine hurricanes, instead of eight. Five of those should be intense, compared to four predicted previously.  Part of the reason for upping the predictions is the number of storms we’ve seen through July, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane. That doesn’t count Edouard, which was the first storm in August.  According to the forecast, only 2005 (the year of Katrina) and 1916 have had more active pre-August tropical activity.

There’s a 2/3 chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US during the rest of the season, with a better than 40% chance of a storm striking either the east coast or the gulf coast.  Overall, the forecasters are predicting a tropical season that is 190% as active than the average season from 1950-2000.

In addition to providing forecasts for the rest of the season, the Dr. Gray and his team are providing a forecast for August tropical activity. If they are right, we will have four storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one intense hurricane this month. With Edouard already occuring, that’s the non-hurricane storm, if their forecast is correct. They will also issue forecasts for September and October at the beginning of those months.

We’re here at the beginning of the last week of Dog Days, the warmest part of the year, and the temperatures haven’t been disappointing. Highs over the last few days have been in the mid 90s, five or six degrees above normal. Both June and July saw 97 degrees, though, which we haven’t seen in August. Be glad we aren’t in Texas, where temperatures have been over 100 degrees for the last three or four days.

At least Texas is going to get a bit of a break with Tropical Storm Edouard getting ready to bring plenty of rain to much of the Bluebonnet state. I wish the same could be said for here, where I’ve had less than two tenths of an inch of precipitation in the last two weeks. Most of my plants are wilting, and it’s a challenge to try to use my little bit of watering time to apply first aid to the plants that are showing stress the most. As I said in my last post, other areas have had no problem with rainfall, but the thunderstorm gods haven’t decided to visit my corner of Gwinnett county.

Rain chances may increase on Wednesday or Thursday, though. Models indicate that a cold front could pass through midweek. The problem is that typically Georgia doesn’t get cold fronts in the dog days of summer–they usually don’t have enough energy to get this far south. Accuweather is optimistic, though, calling for over an inch of rain before Friday. I hope they’re right.

With high temperatures in the 90s for the past eight days (and counting), and no significant rainfall in about three weeks, it’s understandable that drought conditions in North Georgia are worsening. The Gwinnett Daily Post’s banner headline this morning said, “Official: Drought getting worse.”

And, indeed the latest drought monitor for Georgia shows an area of extreme drought in the northeast corner of the state enlarging to the west, including portions of Gwinnett county, and virtually all of the Lake Lanier drainage basin. As of Tuesday, 8.9% of Georgia was in extreme drought, compared to 2.3% last week. 61% of the state is classified as being in a moderate drought. However, as the comparison below shows, we’re still better off than we were at this time last year. On June 12, 2007, 47% of Georgia was in extreme drought and 96.1% was in at least a moderate drought.

The upper level high pressure system that brought the excessive heat and kept rainfall away has moved off the Georgia coast. This has allowed thundershowers to develop, which we’ve seen for the last few nights. Until last evening, they managed to avoid Gwinnett, however around midnight, .57 inches of rain fell at my house—the first significant rain I’ve recorded since May 23rd. The hit or miss nature of these storms is evident in the rainfall totals for yesterday. Atlanta received only .03 inches, Athens only .05 inches and Cartersville .08. However Gainesville recorded .54 inches, Charlie Brown airport .59, and Peachtree DeKalb appeared to have led the metro in rain with .74 inches of precipitation.

Nature responded appropriately, and the view from my window is much greener than it was at this time yesterday. However, the dry soil will quickly absorb all the water. Fortunately, more storms are predicted through the weekend. What we really need is some of the water that has inundated the rivers in Indiana, Illinois and Iowa, which has caused hundred-year-old records to fall.

The June heat wave continued to set records today throughout the east coast. Here are some of the new records:

Atlanta: 98 degrees, with the old record of 97 set in 1995. In addition, this morning’s low temperature of 76 was warmer than the previous high minimum temperature for June 9th of 75 degrees.
Athens: 102 degrees, besting the previous record of 99, set in 1926.
Columbus: 97 ties the record set back in 1986
Macon: 100 ties the previous record from 1954.

Other locations in Georgia, including Augusta, Gainesville, Albany and Savannah also saw highs in the upper 90s, but failed to break any records. Here at my unofficial weather station, I recorded 97 degrees around 2:30 PM. Additional records from around the eastern seaboard:

Raleigh, North Carolina – 99 degrees breaks previous record of 98 set in 1999
Richmond, Virginia – Tied record high of 98 set in 1999.
Atlantic City NJ – 98 degrees beats previous record of 96 set in 1984
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – Tied record high of 95 set in 1999
Hartford, Connecticut – Tied record high of 96 set in 1984
Providence, Rhode Island – 97 degrees tops previous record 95 set in 1984
New York LaGuardia Airport high temperature of 99 tops previous record of 95 from 1984
Newark, New Jersey ties old record of 99 set in 1933

If it’s any consolation, all this heat comes after what turned out to be a very cool spring for most of the country. The average spring temperature of 54.4 degrees was .5 degrees cooler than the 20th century average.

Georgia experienced its 36th coldest spring in 114 years of recordkeeping. Only Texas and the states in the BosWash corridor were above normal. On the precipitation side, California had its driest spring ever, prompting the declaration of drought conditions in the Golden State. The long suffering Mississippi valley had much wetter than normal conditions, with Missouri having its fourth wettest spring, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. Georgia was drier than normal, it’s 26th driest. While Georgia remains in a drought, by the end of May, 24% of the country was considered to be in a wet spell.

Today’s temperatures, averaging more then ten degrees above normal, broke records across Georgia and the eastern seaboard, as the heat wave we’re in continues. Here are some temperatures from around the area, along with the record temperature for June 8th:

Athens – High 101 Old Record 96
Columbus – High 97 Old Record 96
Macon – High 98 Ties Old Record
Savannah – High 97 Record 100
Augusta – High 100 Record 103
Atlanta – 95 Record 96
Gainesville – 95 Record 97
Charlotte, NC – 99 Ties Old Record
Asheville, NC – 93 Old Record 91
Raleigh, NC – 101 Old Record 100
Wilmington, NC – 98 Old Record 96
Greenville, SC – 100 Ties Old Record
Richmond, VA – 100 Old Record 99
Burlington VT – 91 Ties Old Record

It looks like the warmest Georgia temperatures were on a line from Albany to Augusta, with Statesboro also posting highs crossing the century mark. The coolest spot in the state was St. Simons island with a balmy 86, nowhere near a record.

Today is probably the warmest day of the heat wave here in Georgia. For the Mid-Atlantic and New England states, the warmest day comes on Monday. Beginning tomorrow, the upper-level high pressure that has been keeping the rain away moves out over the Atlantic, and we’ll have a better chance of afternoon thundershowers as the new week progresses.

Notes and Asides:

This is the 400th post I’ve made on the blog since starting.

The temperature here in Lawrenceville topped 90 degrees for the first time in 2008 today, with a maximum of 91.4 degrees at 2PM.  In Atlanta, today’s high was only 89.  But in any case, they’ll have another chance tomorrow and indeed for the next week or so, as we are under the influence of an upper level high pressure system that will keep the warmer than normal temperatures around, and probably keep the rain away as well.

All in all, temperatures are running about 6 degrees above normal for early June.  And, this is about the usual time we see 90 degrees — last year we topped 90 on June 6th, in 2006 on May 24th, and in 2005 on June 14th.

Longtime blog reader Morgan Kemp reminds us of the ongoing drought by posting some comments by Georgia climatologist David Stooksbury made at this time last year, when the drought’s effects were really setting in. Actually, we’re doing a bit better this year through May.  While most of Georgia had less than normal rainfall for the month, Atlanta is only 4 inches short of normal for the year, and Athens has had 6.4 inches less than what would be expected.  Through the end of May, Atlanta recorded 18.65 inches of precipitation for 2008, compared to 11.73 inches for the same period in 2007.

It does seem like things are getting dry, however.  While some parts of North Georgia saw beneficial thunderstorms over the last week or so, they all missed me.  And, Climatologist Stooksbury issued a new report today warning that the hot, dry weather is likely to erase the effects of the improvements we’ve seen this year.

Much of the report is simply a recap of where different parts of the state stand with water supplies and rainfall.  However, for the second year in a row, he predicts warmer than normal temperatures if we don’t get rainfall, and says,

For the next several months, Georgia’s best chance for widespread drought relief will be tropical disturbances. However, the tropics usually don’t become active until late summer.

June and July are critical. Without major rain events the soils will continue to become drier leading to lower stream flows, groundwater levels and reservoir and pond levels.

The outlook for an above normal tropical season remains strong, according to the latest update from Dr. Gray at Colorado State University, which maintained the same outlook as he did in April. And, there’s a better chance of tropical weather affecting the US mainland than there was last year.

Meanwhile, look for a better chance than normal for hot temperatures for the next two weeks, with rainfall remaining about normal. For the month as a whole, we’ve got equal chances of above or below normal rainfall and temperatures, according to the updated outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

You may have expected it, but now the preliminary figures from the National Climactic Data Center are in, and they confirm that August 2007 was the second warmest on record for the country, and the warmest for Georgia and seven other southeastern states:

The average temperature of 75.4 degrees nationwide was 2.7 degrees above normal. In Georgia, the average temperature was 83.3 degrees, 4.0 degrees warmer than normal. Despite August being a record warm month for the state, the long-term temperature trend for Georgia is slowly dropping. The heat wave caused more than 30 all time temperature records to be tied or broken around the country, and more than 2,000 daily high temperature records were broken.

For precipitation, it was the 37th driest August on record, out of 113 years measured. Much of the southeast had below-normal rainfall, continuing the drought conditions we’ve had for the past year:

From looking at the map, it appears that Georgia had a relatively normal month, ranking 43rd dries, especially against the extremely dry conditions in the surrounding states. This is due to above normal rainfall in central and south-central Georgia, and normal rainfall in the southeast part of the state. The rest of the state saw below normal precipitation, with the northwest and northeast corners much below normal.

August was a record-breaking month in Georgia. In Atlanta, the first 26 days of the month had high temperatures above 90 degrees, and there were nine days where the temperature went above 100, tying a record set in 1980 for the most days in a year with temperatures above 100 degrees. For the month, the average temperature was 85.6 degrees, 6.7 degrees above normal. The high temperature of 104, set on August 23rd, was not only the record-breaker for the day, but for the entire month. You would have to go back to 1980 to see temperatures this warm.

Here in Lawrenceville, the average temperature for August was only 81.3, and the warmest day was the 9th, when the temperature reached 101.5. That’s still warmer then normal. One reason the average temperature was cooler than in Atlanta is that on many days, the overnight low temperature stayed lower than in the city. I recorded six days with overnight lows less than 70, while Atlanta recorded none. In Gainesville, the average temperature was 84.6, 7.1 degrees above normal, and in Athens, the average was 85.2, 6.9 degrees above normal August temperatures in the Classic City.

Believe it or not, but the official precipitation records for August 2007 in Atlanta will show the city received 95% of its normal rainfall of 3.67 inches. 3.48 inches of rain was recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Airport during the month, but over two inches of that occurred in the last four days of the month, and most of the rest during the last week. Because August rainfall is typically driven by thunderstorms, the amount of rain you got depended on where you were. I recorded a scant 1.52 inches during the month, while Athens recorded less than half its normal monthly total, with 1.72 inches. Gainesville had 3.17 inches of rain during August.

September is a month of rapid change climate-wise, as we begin to see shorter days and lower daytime and evening temperatures. This month, however, is likely to be warmer than normal, with the Climate Prediction Center calling for at least a 33% chance of a warm September, and an even greater likelihood of hot weather for the southeast corner of the state.

Things are busy in the tropics, by the way, with three active named storms. In the Eastern Pacific basin, Gil is beginning to lose strength, while Henriette is expected to gain strength, and eventually bring wet weather to the southwest US. In the Atlantic, Felix became a named storm this morning. He looks like he is going to follow roughly the same path as Dean did, but track slightly to the south.