I was winding my way through the big box home center today picking up a few things, when I noticed the racks of petunias, geraniums and even tomatoes in gallon containers waiting to be sold to unsuspecting consumers.

We’re about to see a real warm up starting on Thursday. By the weekend, we’re likely to see high temperatures in the mid-70s, with lows around 50, which will continue through the middle of next week. Undoubtedly, these tender annuals will be picked up by eager gardeners ready to start Spring. These same folks are likely to be disappointed by the following weekend, when nighttime lows drop below freezing again.

Now, I’m as ready for spring as the next person. And, I’m hoping that Randy’s Nursery will open this weekend so I can get a start planting perennials, which unlike the tomatoes and geraniums won’t expire when the temperatures drop.

State climatologist David Stooksbury recently issued his spring climate outlook, which he says will be influenced by a change from a neutral pattern into a mild La Nina pattern. For Georgia, Stooksbury says, this means it’s likely to be dry in the middle and southern portions of the state, while north of a Carrolton to Elberton line, the climatology is likely to produce normal rainfall. In the Georgia mountains, it’s likely to be either very wet or very dry, depending on the position of the jet stream.

Temperatures are likely to vary widely over the next month and a half:

As far as temperatures are concerned, we can expect a continuation of a wide range, especially through the middle of April.

The date of the last killing freeze, or 28 F or below, or the last frost has no relationship with the climate pattern. Knowing that Georgia is currently under the influence of a weak La Niña tells us nothing about when the last freeze will occur.

Just as important, a warm March does not tell us anything about the likelihood of a late freeze. The 2007 Easter freeze is a prime example. March 2007 had been very warm and most plants had broken their dormancy. Then a devastating freeze hit in early April.

Stooksbury also points out the snow and ice storms are not that unusual in March, either.

So get out and enjoy the upcoming weekend. Within a week’s period Georgians will have been able to play in the snow and break out the shorts and T-Shirts. That’s one reason I like Georgia weather. But, hold off on those annuals until after the Master’s tournament in April.

It looks like Old Man Winter is going to take one more shot at Georgia over the next few days, and that could be bad news for gardeners and farmers across the state for a second year in a row. The Weather Service is calling for low temperatures in Lawrenceville of 36 degrees on Sunday night and Tuesday night, and 34 degrees Monday night. Across the state, lows are expected to be in the upper 30s Monday morning, and 31 in Atlanta, 32 in Athens, and 30 in Macon on Tuesday morning.

Accuweather.com is calling for lows of 34 on Sunday night, 30 Monday night and 39 Tuesday Night, while Weather.com says it will be 36 Sunday night, 31 on Monday and 33 on Tuesday.  In comparison, temperatures dropped to 28 degrees the nights of April 6 and 7, 2007, the infamous Easter Freeze that caused widespread damage to spring flowers and crops.

My guess is that the damage won’t be as bad as what we saw last year– it looks like it will be a little warmer– but I wouldn’t suggest you plant any annuals this weekend.  You should also bring in any houseplants or container plants you’ve set outside until at least Wednesday. If the worst does happen, Walter Reeves has a good article on coping with freeze damage.

The Gwinnett Daily Post on Friday splayed its front page with the apocalyptic headline, “Rising, But Not Enough – Drought Still in Full Force.”  While the premise of the article is correct, that Lake Lanier won’t reach it’s normal full pool level by May, I would take issue with the “full force” part of the headline  It looks like Lanier’s pool will have risen by seven feet from its low point, while in a normal year, the lake would recharge by 8 or 9 feet. Rainfall this year is normal, with the exception of January.

Atlanta’s official precipitation measurement as of yesterday was 16.54 inches, 1.75 below normal for the year.  However, that’s almost twice the amount of precipitation we had through the same day in 2007, which was 8.41 inches. By my reckoning, it was sometime in June, 2007 before we had the amount of rain we’ve seen so far this year.

The drought took a few years of less than normal precipitation to get us to where we are now, and the only magic wand that could get us back to normal quickly would be some tropical activity coming our way this summer.  But, I would argue we may have turned the corner on the worst of the drought.

Although Georgia’s drought isn’t over yet, Governor Perdue announced some loosening of watering restrictions today that will take effect on April 1st. The changes were made to help the landscaping industry which was facing a very bleak year if the current no watering at all ban remained in place. The changes also resolve the question of what to do about swimming pools this summer.

For most homeowners, the biggest change will be that they can hand water their landscapes for 25 minutes a day, three days a week.  Hand watering means using a single hose with a spray nozzle that has shutoff valve.  Property owners can water between midnight and 8 AM on the same odd-even schedule used for other drought levels.

The new rules effectively mean that you can water your flower gardens and shrubs, but you probably aren’t going to be able to effectively water your lawn, given the time limit.  Remember, food gardens are already exempt from the watering ban. You can’t use your time to wash your car, though.

The rules have also changed for professionally installed landscaping.  Under the current restrictions, professionally installed landscaping could be watered any time for 30 days after installation.  The new rules look similar to the level 2 drought restrictions in place last summer: you can water from midnight to 10 AM on your designated odd/even day for a maximum of 10 weeks. Prior to being allowed to water newly installed landscape, you need to register either with your county extension agent, or at the Urban Agricultural Council website. Registrations will be accepted after March 1st.

State officials are hoping that due to the limits in watering days and times, the amount of water used will be roughly the same as what would be used in the 30 day period under the previous restrictions. Limiting watering of new landscapes to 30 days encouraged people to overwater, and a 10 week period allows more time for shrubs to grow roots and adapt to their new environment.

The third  change allows the filling of swimming pools this summer, previously banned under the level 4 restrictions. This applies not only to large underground or above-ground pools, but also to smaller wading pools used by small children.  Despite the EPD’s estimate that the almost 100,000 pools in the level 4 drought area will use 9 million gallons of water a day, the decision to loosen restrictions was made because by not allowing filling of pools, they could become health hazards.

The last big change in the watering rules affects water utilities. Under the present regulations, utilities could were subject to fines unless their water usage was 10% below what they used from January-March, 2007.  For the summer months, this is being changed to 10% below their April-September monthly average.  In addition, water utilities will be allowed to request additional modifications if their permitted water supply, expected usage  and location specific conditions exist.  For example, Gwinnett County could request that TPC Sugarloaf be allowed to water their golf course due to the upcoming AT&T Classic because of the economic impact the event brings to the county.  The EPD must agree to any additional exemptions.

Of course, as in the past, local water providers can impose more stringent restrictions as they see fit. I think that there is hope that the drought will loosen its grip as summer starts, and EPD recognizes this.  But don’t be surprised if we go back to the status quo should rain fail to develop.

With Spring officially arriving tonight, and the weather warming up, it’s time to start thinking about planting outdoors. There are two weather-related things to keep in mind before you run out to the garden center to pick up those summer annuals.

The first is the last freeze date. You don’t want those newly planted flowers to freeze. For Georgia, the last frost date ranges from March 20th along a line from Columbus to Macon to Augusta to April 20th up in the mountains of Northeast Georgia near Clayton. According to the Weather Service, metro Atlanta to Athens has its last freeze sometime between March 30th and April 10th.

In reality, though, the last time Atlanta had a spring freeze in April was back in 2000, and before that, you have to go back to 1992. There have been a number of freezes in late March, however. In addition, Atlanta tends to be a bit warmer than the suburban counties, so the actual last freeze date would be a bit later here.

In addition to thinking about the last freeze, consider the soil temperature before you plant. Most annuals won’t grow much until the soil temperature remains above 60 degrees, and some plants, prefer temperatures above 70. I keep track of the soil temperature with a probe about 6 inches down in my backyard. A graph of the temperature is below:

The image above is live, and as I look at it, I see the soil temperature reached 56 degrees during last week’s warm spell, then dropped to 48 over the chilly weekend. It’s now on the way back up. So, as of today, it’s still too early to plant, even if you were positive we weren’t going to see any below 32 degree weather. When you see the temperature above 60 and staying there, that’s a pretty good indication that it’s safe to plant.

With temperatures recorded at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta 4.5 degrees above normal for December as a whole, and 8.9 degrees above normal for the first six days of January, one could be forgiven for asking, “What happened to Winter?”

Even Mother Nature seems confused. Looking around the yard, I have a few daffodils blooming, the Lenten Roses have bloomed, and I even see that the Daphne is beginning to bloom. On Ronald Reagan Parkway, the Pussy Willows are coming out. All of this is about a month ahead of schedule. In New York City, the entire month of December went without any measurable snowfall–the first time that has happened since recordkeeping began.

The US has been in what’s called a split flow jet stream pattern for the last month or so, with the northern jet stream moving west to east across the northern states, and the southern jet stream moving across the southern states. The effect of this is to keep all the cold Canadian air north of the border, and to bring fronts across the Gulf of Mexico, which is what we saw with the Christmas Day storms, which brought tornadoes to central Florida, and yesterday’s storm, where a violent squall line brought an F1 tornado to the McDonough area, and rain across much of Georgia around lunchtime.

This benign weather pattern will break down by the Saturday the 13th, bringing cold air out of Canada initially into the Plains states, and then moving further east. For the week of January 15th, the Atlanta area will be lucky to see high temperatures of 50 degrees. Beyond then, we’ll likely see more typical winter weather through February.

Before then, we’re going to get two storms. Rain tomorrow could bring 1.5 inches to the area, as a front will stall over Georgia during the day. Things clear out for the work week, with somewhat lower but still relatively warm temperatures and nice weather until next weekend, when another front ahead of the colder air again brings the possibility of rainfall.

So, if your outdoor plants seem a bit overeager, don’t worry too much. There will be plenty of colder weather to slow them down.

This weekend, the Atlanta area measured the lowest temperatures in nearly two years. Here in Lawrenceville, we got down to 17.6 degrees early Saturday morning, while at Hartsfield Airport, the temperature dropped to 19 degrees. The last time the temperature dropped below was back on January 24th, 2005, with a low of 14.6 degrees.

The weather service in Peachtree City says that temperatures dropped to 5 degrees in Blairsville this morning, which is believable, and to two degrees in Thomaston — between Columbus and Macon, which is not.

The low temperatures bring to mind a discussion that has been going on among the people that decide the plant hardiness zones. Georgia is split between zone 8, which sees winter low temperatures between 10 and 20 degrees, and zone 7, where lows range between zero and 10. Atlanta is in zone 7B, defined as seeing a low temperature between 5 and 10 degrees each winter.

It’s a big deal to gardeners, since there are many plants that will survive with temperatures as low as 20 degrees, but will die if the temperatures drop to 10. We may very well see a change in hardiness zones sometime in the near future to reflect this. (The real problem with plant survival in Atlanta is the humidity and temperatures over 70 degrees on summer nights, which is a discussion for another day.)

At any rate, temperatures below 30 degrees may be few and far between for the next ten days or so, as we see a bit of a warm spell for December. Increased moisture due to a southerly flow of the jet stream will bring temperatures spanning only 20 degrees or so, from the 40s to the 60s, as opposed to the 35 to 40 degree change between morning lows and afternoon highs we’ve seen so far this month. The moisture is also likely to bring some welcome rainfall, beginning as soon as Tuesday afternoon.

The relatively dry weather over the past two weeks got me itching to turn on the sprinkler system and water the lawn. Keeping in mind the gardening advice that lawns should receive an inch of water a week, it would seem to make sense to water, since we haven’t had a one week period with an inch of rain since March.

I decided to use a soil moisture tester I have before watering. It showed that 3 or 4 inches below the surface, there was actually plenty of moisture — and no need to water.

We have abundant soil moisture, despite the lack of recent rain, for several reasons: First, we had plenty of rain during the last week of March, and much of that rain is still in the ground. Trees draw plenty of water from the ground once they are fully leafed out, but not as much when they are bare. Finally, our cooler than normal temperatures have kept soil temperatures around 60 degrees, by my records, about 6 degrees cooler than what it’s been on May 7th over the last few years. The cooler temperatures also tend to keep moisture in the soil.

Last week’s cooler than normal temperatures are going to be replaced by normal to slightly warmer than normal weather during the upcoming week. The first week of May saw average temperatures about 7 degrees cooler than normal, accented by lows in the 40s. Lows this week will be about 15 degrees warmer than last.

High pressure to our east will bring winds from the southwest, bringing in more humidity as well, adding to the impression that things are much warmer than they have been so far this season. This high pressure will also keep the effects of a low over the upper Midwest away from Georgia, at least through Monday. Midweek, things are a bit more unsettled, as there is a chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, and again towards the weekend. For the week of the 15th, we’re likely to see temperatures returning to a more normal range, with highs in the upper 70s, and about a normal chance of precipitation.

If temperatures warm as expected next week, and if we are able to avoid rain, it might be time to water by next weekend, but I’ll use my moisture tester to make sure.

The predicted change in the weather pattern at the end of this week may turn into some of the coldest weather of the season. Most forecasts for periods more than a day or two out are based on computer models, and one such model, the Global Forecast System, or GFS, was predicting highs in the 20s next Saturday or Sunday. The National Weather Service forecaster commenting on this possibility urged readers to remember that it was likely to change.

The map to the right represents the predicted low temperatures in the eastern half of the country for the period between January 16th and January 22nd. As you can see, the low during that period could be around 15 degrees, a temperature even colder than the frigid blast we had just before Christmas.

All the cold weather will be caused by polar air pushing southward starting around the middle of the week. We’ll begin to see the effects of that on Thursday, as some of the rain plaguing the Ohio valley moves into North Georgia. As the rain moves through, the temperatures drop, leading to highs Saturday only in the mid 40s. Longer-range, we might see some wintry precipitation the week of the 17th.

The Season’s First Daffodils

All of the warm weather we’ve had since Christmas has begun to have some effect on the plant life. This picture, taken in my back yard this morning, is the first daffodil of the season. I’ve also seen a crocus blooming, and the Lenten Rose and Daphne aren’t far behind.

On his radio show yesterday morning, Walter Reeves didn’t seem to be too concerned that the March-like weather in January would cause tremendous problems with plant life. His theory was that since soil temperatures are still in the mid 40s, and the days are just beginning to lengthen, the warm temperatures aren’t having the effect they would have if we were having weather this warm in late February.