Despite threats of 4-5 inches of rain along the I-85 corridor due to the remnants of Hurricane Ida, it appears that most of the Atlanta area only received in the neighborhood of 2-3 inches of precipitation. Here in Lawrenceville, I’ve recorded 1.87 inches since the rain started early this morning. In Alpharetta, they recorded 3.11 inches, and in Johns Creek, the Atlanta Athletic Club measured 2.98 inches.

Other Georgia locations received much more rain. Pine Mountain was reporting 5.48 inches of rainfall today, while Columbus recorded 5.01 inches. These two areas seem to be the hardest hit, and from glancing at the radar this afternoon, it seems that Alabama got the most rain. Gainesville recorded 2.44 inches, while Marietta saw 2.77 inches. The official Atlanta rain gauge at Hartsfield Airport recorded 2.71 inches.

The rain did cause some area rivers to reach flood stage. Big Creek in Alpharetta is flooding, as is Pew Creek in Gwinnett County, Peachtree Creek in Atlanta, and the Nickajack Creek in Cobb county. Suwanee Creek is expected to experience minor flooding tomorrow morning.

There’s still more rain to come before Ida bids Georgia farewell (and her remnants cause problems in the Delmarva peninsula). But, looking at the radar now, it seems like the forecasters should have picked I-59 in Alabama as the worst hit area, rather then the I-85 corridor.

It’s starting to feel like we really are making up for all that missing rainfall from the drought. Today’s rainfall here in Lawrenceville of 2.52 inches brings the total rain for October here to 4.55 inches — more than an inch above what would be expected for the entire month. It’s the wettest October in at least five years.

Atlanta set a new rainfall record for October 12th today, with 2.5 inches. That makes the yearly rainfall for Hartsfield Airport to 50.68 inches. Normal annual rain for Atlanta is 50.2 inches, so we’ve met that milestone with nearly a quarter of the year to go. Athens also set a rainfall record for the day with 3.83 inches. The previous October 12 rainfall record for both cities was set in 1994. Lake Lanier is now at 1070.58 feet above sea level, having gained over half a foot during the day. The lake is now less than half a foot from full pool, although it would take a lake level of 1085 feet before it would be considered flooded. The last time Lanier was at full pool was in September, 2005.

Flooding is occurring, though. Suwanee Creek in Suwanee is at 9.79 feet, with flooding beginning at 8 feet. Big Creek in Alpharetta and the Chattahoochee River in Vinings are also at flood stage. I saw where the Yellow River had escaped its banks into the flood plain in my area.

Unfortunately, it looks like we’re up for more rain on Wednesday. After a relatively pleasant day tomorrow, the rain will return, and according to the latest estimate from the Weather Service, shown at right, we could have another two to two and a half inches through Thursday evening, with higher amounts in the northeast Georgia mountains. If that scenario does pan out, expect more possible flooding, since the ground will be even more saturated than when the rain started this morning.

Once all the rain does go away on Friday, we will be in for some cooler weather over the weekend. The cold Canadian air that has brought an early Winter to much of the Plains states is moving east. Right now, overnight temperatures for the weekend are predicted to be in the mid 40s, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up a bit lower than that.

Speaking of cold in the west, I’ve got to take note of the fact that in Denver, Colorado, temperatures dropped to a chilly 18 degrees Saturday morning, and didn’t get out of the 20s, forcing the cancellation of the third game of the baseball playoffs. The low temperature was the coldest it’s been so early in the season in Denver. Temperatures also dropped below the freezing mark this morning in Chicago. It was 34 in Dayton, Ohio and 28 in Grand Rapids, Michigan on Sunday morning. Record cold temperatures were felt in Montana, and the cold in Idaho may make it difficult for farmers in Idaho to harvest their potato crop.

It doesn’t look like things are going to get much better in Georgia at least through the end of the month. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for continued chances of above normal precipitation, and colder than normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period. Long-range winter forecasts call for a cold and wet winter in the southeast, a topic I’ll try to cover in more detail later in the week.

Weather-wise, the rainfall that caused the record-breaking flooding in metro Atlanta is now over. Of course, it’s going to take a while for roads to be rebuilt, and damage to homes to be repaired, but the last few days of dry weather has allowed river levels to recede and land to dry out.

The US Geological Survey declared the flooding a 500 year flood, according to an article in the AJC. Basing their data on river flow gauges, the USGS said there is only a 1/2 of one percent chance of a flood of the magnitude we saw this week. That doesn’t mean it will be another 500 years before we see this much rain, it’s just that the odds are very slim.

The weather service reports nine record river flows in the area, including Suwanee Creek cresting at 14.3 feet, more than two feet above the previous record. Additionally there were five top 5 record flows at other river gauges. Lake Lanier rose by about three feet due to all the rain.

Here are some rainfall totals from Monday, September 14th at 8 AM through Tuesday, September 22nd at 8 AM:

Satellite image taken Monday morning, September 21. Blues and Reds show the location of the heaviest rainfall when the image was taken.

You can see the full list as reported by the weather service and cooperative stations here.

One of the major causes of all the rain was a low pressure system west of Georgia being blocked by a high pressure system to our north. Even after the storms passed, the blocking pattern remained, which caused the continuing high humidity and 10 degree above average low temperatures over the past few days. This weekend, a cold front will finally push the whole system away, and give us cooler temperatures with low humidity, and a chance to dry out wet crawl spaces.

If you think we had plenty of rain over the last six days, it looks like day seven is the one to beat them all. As of 6:50 this morning, my rain gauge is reporting 5.84 inches of precipitation fell…this morning. The AJC is reporting that Spaghetti Junction is closed because of heavy rain (both I-85 and I-285). In Gwinnett, two feet of water is blocking the intersection of Scenic Highway and Sugarloaf Parkway, and there is additional flooding in downtown Lawrenceville. The weather service is reporting 7 inches of rain in Lilburn, over 3 inches in downtown Atlanta, and 9 inches in southwest Atlanta.

So, that brings the total rainfall for the last week to 12.57 inches. In Atlanta, 3.72 inches of rain fell on Saturday, breaking a record. I’m sure there will be more records set today. Flash flood warnings are in effect until later this morning, with flood warnings until

And if you’re wondering about Lake Lanier, it’s rising rapidly as well. After being fairly stable until the weekend, the runoff and excessive rain has cause the lake’s level to rise by a foot since Sunday morning, and I imagine it will continue to go up. The current level is 1065.81 feet.

As a result of the heavy rainfall today and yesterday, the rain gauge at Hartsfield Airport has recorded a total of 5.96 inches for the month of March, through 4 PM today. That’s the most rain in any one month since August, 2006, when 8.66 inches of precipitation fell.

Here in Lawrenceville, I’ve recorded just over an inch less, at 4.78 inches, however the rain gauge got clogged yesterday, which might have caused a lower reading than normal. Athens is at 5.44 inches so far for the month. Lake Lanier has risen by about half a foot since the rain started on Thursday.

There is more rain on the way late tonight and Saturday. The HPC thinks we could get another inch and a half of rain, with the heaviest amounts in the northeast part of Georgia. With the saturated ground, there is still a chance for flooding, and the Weather Service has issued a flood warning for the Alcovy River near Lawrenceville. But, it’s nothing like what they are seeing in Fargo, North Dakota, where the Red River is at near 500 year flood stage.

Update: Mobile, Alabama recorded 3.26 inches of rain between 2 and 8 AM on Saturday. Lots more rain headed our way today.

Tropical storm Fay continues to thrash around the Florida coast near Daytona Beach, and if the area was in a drought before, it certainly isn’t in one now. Total rainfall of up to 30 inches has been reported in some areas, with one observer in Brevard Country reporting 11.21 inches of rain in 24 hours ending this morning. Of course, rain amounts can vary widely over a local area. Here are some rain reports from NWS stations around Florida:

There have been reports of widespread flooding in Florida including 30 inch high water reaching up to front porches and car doors. The rising water has brought a variety of sea creatures on the runway at the Melbourne airport according to WSB radio, and the AP is reporting residents finding alligators swimming around neighborhoods looking for dry land.

Fay will begin to turn west overnight, but her center is forecast to remain in Florida and eventually on to Alabama and Mississippi as a remnant low. This won’t leave Georgia completely high and dry though. The southern part of the state will definitely see some rain from Fay, and the HPC is thinking that much of the northern part of the state could see as much as two inches on Monday and Tuesday as the high pressure system that has kept Fay so far south begins to move east, allowing Fay to recurve. There’s also a chance that we’ll see some rain over the weekend, but nothing like what we would have had if Fay’s original forecast track had been maintained.

The latest drought outlook came out today, and all of the areas in the southeast are forecast to see improvement over the next few months. Part of this may have been based on the failed forecast for fickle Fay–how’s that for alliteration–but part is also based on an above normal forecast for rain in the southeast for the 6-10 and 10-14 day outlooks as well as September. Temperatures could be above or below normal in September.

Taking a longer range view, the Farmer’s Almanac is due to be published next week, and a news story reports the Almanac is calling for a colder than normal winter for much of the country, and above normal precipitation in the southeast in January and February.

You can choose to believe the Almanac’s forecast or not, but realistically this winter is going to be ENSO Neutral. That means that we won’t have either La Nina or El Nino conditions; sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are forecast to be normal. In neutral conditions, weather tends to vary widely, neither favoring the warm, dry conditions of La Nina or the cold, wet conditions of El Nino.

Finally, I had a chance to listen to Gwinnett congressman John Linder speak at the Chamber’s monthly lunch. Linder’s talk was brief, but he brought up the dangers of believing the human-caused global warming theory, and the costs to American society the proposed remedies would impose. He managed to tie lack of progress in becoming self sufficient in production of energy and making sure we have enough water to drink to the agenda of the environmentalists who believe that humans have caused, and can cure global warming.

Some folks in North Georgia got an unusual late March sight: snow flurries fell briefly this afternoon.  Although it was 45 degrees outside, much colder air aloft combined with lower pressure caused by a short wave passing through squeezed out just enough moisture for the flakes, which melted on contact with the ground. Temperatures today are 20 degrees cooler than normal, and the northern two thirds of the state will see a freeze tonight.  If you succumbed to the spring planting urge over the weekend, either bring your plants in, or at least cover them over.

Tonight’s freeze won’t be anywhere near as bad as the Easter Freeze of 2007. though.  Not only is it likely to be a bit warmer than the 28 degrees recorded last April, but not as many plants have started to bloom. A freeze in late March isn’t too unusual.  For metro Atlanta, the typical last frost occurs sometime between April 1st and April 15th.

Communities along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are suffering through one of the worst flooding seasons in years.  The map below shows the potential for flooding this spring in the United States, according to the Spring flood outlook:

The heavy snowfall in Ohio is partially responsible for the current round of flooding, while up in the Northeast, record snowfalls in New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine increase the flooding potential once the snow melts. Of course, here in Georgia the drought has limited the potential for any flooding according to the Georgia Flood Outlook.

The Weather Service has updated its report from the March 14th tornado that struck downtown Atlanta. New estimates show wind speeds of about 120 mph when the twister passed over the World Congress Center, compared with the original estimate of 100 MPH, and traveled slightly further than what was originally estimated.    The storms the following day are now estimated to have caused three tornadoes instead of two, according to the updated damage report. The third tornado occurred in Butts County, south of Atlanta.

And finally, there is at least one Australian scientist who thinks that global warming is over, and the earth is now entering a cooling phase. The peak of global warming actually occurred in 2000, and for the last eight years, the trend is towards cooler weather.