Atlanta should be in for a bit of better weather for the next day or two, as Cindy moves further to the North, and Dennis remains too far south to affect the area. The Weather Service has confirmed six tornadoes as a result of Cindy’s passing through the area. The strongest tornado, rated F2 on the Fujita scale, ran through Henry County for almost nine miles, and caused over $40 million worth of damage to Atlanta Motor Speedway. Additional tornadoes were observed in McDonough and Fayetteville, as well as further south in Meriwether and Coweta counties.

The 5.14 inches of rain that fell at Atlanta’s Hartsfield Airport was the sixth largest one day total rain amount ever recorded for that location. The worst of the rain was in a band that stretched from south Fulton county, to south DeKalb, to south Gwinnett. Additional rainfall totals for Cindy include:
Athens: 4.12 inches
Gainesville: 1.92 inches
Marietta: 2.45 inches
Rome: 1.55 inches

The map on the right shows National Weather Service estimated 24 hour rainfall totals through 8 AM Thursday.

Meanwhile, Dennis has turned into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Currently located south of Cuba, the storm is moving northwest at 16 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are about 135 MPH.

The current official forecast calls for Dennis to strike the Gulf Coast near the Alabama-Florida border sometime late Sunday or early Monday, and then move inland towards the northwest. However, satellite models continue to disagree about the exact landing point and path of the storm, with some models calling for a more westerly path, while others have the storm more to the east. As far as our weather goes vis a vis Dennis, if it’s to the east, we will likely see a repeat of the rain that Cindy brought, while if it’s to the west, we will miss the worst of the effects.

The picture above, courtesy of NOAA, shows a picture of Dennis as of about 7:30 PM Thursday, with the eye located just north of Jamaica.

Tropical storm Cindy dropped over 4 inches of rain over the Atlanta area overnight Thursday, and caused tornadoes, hail, and flooding. Many of the initial problems occurred on the south side of the city as a major storm arrived during the 7 PM hour. Peachtree City reported flooding and nickel size hail. The storm moved northeast, with Jonesboro, McDonough, and Stockbridge reporting storm damage and trees down. Flash flood warnings were declared for Fulton and DeKalb counties, while flood warnings were issued for much of the eastern part of the state of Georgia, including Gwinnett County.

Rainfall amounts varied based on location. Hartsfield Airport reported 5.14 inches of rain, with a maximum wind speed of 43 MPH. Peachtree DeKalb reported 2.86 inches of rain, and Athens reported 4.17 inches.

My weather station recorded 4.35 inches of precipitation for the storm (through 6:00 AM), with about half the rain late Wednesday evening, and the other half early Thursday morning. This is slightly less than the 4.57 inches of rain from last September’s Hurricane Ivan.

As Cindy moves out of the area, we can expect some additional light rain as the day moves on, and then we get a short break before the effects of Hurricane Dennis reach our area. Dennis was located about 225 miles south of Guantanamo, Cuba. Hurricane force winds were reported at 90 MPH.

Cindy has been reduced to a tropical depression, after making landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana around 11:30 PM Tuesday evening. The first major effects of Cindy are being felt in Gwinnett County, with a tornado watch issued for metro Atlanta until 8:00 PM Wednesday night. The image to the right, courtesy of the National Weather Service, shows the predicted amount of precipitation between 8:00 PM tonight and 8:00 PM on Thursday.

The movement of the storm, and the fact that most of the rainfall will be in the lower eastern quadrant of the storm, means that the worst of the rain will be to the south of the Appalachian mountains. Metro Atlanta can expect up to two inches of rain, with amounts of up to five inches expected in the North Georgia mountains.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Dennis is posing a major threat to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba, where hurricane warnings have been issued. At 5:00 PM, the storm was 315 miles South-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica with winds of 65 MPH, just short of what is needed to become an official hurricane. Moving West-Northwest at 14 MPH, the storm will probably become a hurricane later today or tonight.

The best guess on Dennis’ path is to come northward across the Gulf, and land sometime Monday morning in approximately the same location as tropical storm Arlene did a few weeks ago. However, there is some indication that Dennis may track further west than the current prediction, and the forecast track would have to be adjusted for a landfall more towards Louisiana.

It’s probably too early to consider Dennis’ effect on the Atlanta area. One computer model predicts that a building high pressure system over the eastern part of the country will deflect Dennis over the Mississippi Valley and into Oklahoma, avoiding our area completely. We’ll probably have to wait until sometime this weekend before we’ll have a good sense of how the storm will turn out.

This picture from the National Weather Service shows Tropical Storm Cindy around 8:15 PM Tuesday, just short of making landfall over Louisiana:

Because tropical storms and hurricanes rotate counter clockwise, most of the moisture associated with Cindy is to the east of the storm. To the west, the air is much drier, and there are fewer clouds.

With tropical storm Cindy ready to make landfall on the southeast Louisiana coast sometime Tuesday evening, and tropical storm Dennis 325 miles southwest of Puerto Rico, July 5th has become the earliest date in history to have had four named Atlantic storms.

The satellite image above, taken about 5:15 Tuesday afternoon, shows Cindy about to strike the Gulf coast on the left, as Dennis prepares to move northwest across Cuba.

With maximum sustained winds near 70 MPH, there is a 50% possibility that Cindy will turn into a hurricane before it makes landfall, however it is not expected to strengthen too much. Parts of the Southeast could experience 4 to 6 inches of rain as a result of the storm. Atlanta should see the worst of the bad weather between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon. The good news is that by the weekend, we could have some halfway decent weather … before beginning to feel the effects of Dennis.

Dennis has maximum sustained winds around 40 MPH, with a 55% probability of becoming a full hurricane by Thursday morning. Although it’s difficult to predict exactly where the storm will be, it’s now estimated that Dennis will be in the middle of the Gulf, heading towards an area between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday afternoon.

The Weather Service has issued a tropical storm warning for the Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Florida Gulf coast as a result of Tropical Storm Cindy, which is expected to make landfall early Wednesday morning. (For those who missed the second storm, Brett, it rolled across the southern Mexico border on June 28-29, and was never a threat to the US.) The storm is currently located 255 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi, with 40 MPH winds.

At this point, the storm is not expected to become a hurricane.

Moisture from the storm could reach the Atlanta area on Wednesday or Thursday. In the meantime, we’ll continue to see a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through the latter part of the week on a hit or miss basis. Sunday afternoon, a line of strong storms brought 3/4 inch hail to Fulton County. The storms veered around Gwinnett, bringing only some thunder and a trace of rain.

By next weekend, it’s possible that we’ll see some drier and warmer air as a cold front passes through from the northwest. By that time, we’ll also be able to see if the next tropical system, currently over the eastern Atlantic, will pose a threat to the Southeast.