Gwinnett County’s best known sporting event comes to town next week — the AT&T Classic golf tournament, to be played at Sugarloaf Country Club in Duluth. This PGA tournament has suffered in the past from bad weather when it was contested during the last weekend in March, just before the Masters, including having sleet, snow and rain fall several years ago.

As a result, the PGA moved the tournament to the third weekend in May last year, and golf fans saw picture perfect weather. I’ve been keeping an eye on the long range forecasts for next week, and unfortunately, the weather picture does not look good.

The image to the right shows an animated view of the GFS model prediction for temperature, wind and 12 hour rainfall from 1 AM on Thursday through 1 PM on the Monday after the tournament. As you can see, there’s a lot of dark blue and purple moving through Georgia for most of the tournament, with the exception of Saturday morning, when things take a little break. The weather finally clears out on Sunday night, just as the Classic is supposed to end.

Of course, forecasts could change in the next 7 to 10 days or so, but the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts from the CPC are both calling for more than usual rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures. Accuweather has also been fairly consistent in calling for rain when the Classic is going to be played.

After a 10 day period with little or no rainfall, we’re due for some rain, and we’re likely to get some beginning on Thursday and lasting through the weekend. After some calm weather early on the week of the 12th, it’s the rain scenario outlined above.

As someone who enjoys the golf tournament every year, I’ll be disappointed if the forecast comes true. On the other hand, given the drought, I’ll take the rain compared to last year, when only 1.1 inch of rain fell for the entire month of May.

The folks over at the PGA tour have to be pretty happy with the weather in Gwinnett this week, as the AT&T Classic plays out over at Sugarloaf Country Club in Duluth. Cool morning temperatures, afternoon highs in the 70s, and low humidity have made for good golf, especially with the tournament’s past record of miserable weather when it was played in late March.

The pleasant weather is courtesy of a upper level trough in the midwest that is bringing in cooler air from the northeast, and it looks like we’ll continue to see slightly warmer but still pleasant weather through the Memorial Day weekend, with a slight chance of rain on Thursday or Friday.

Of course, all this good weather comes with a price — the continuing lack of rainfall in Georgia. The latest drought monitor doesn’t show much of a change from previous weeks, which is little consolation, since much of the state is in a level one or worse drought. Last weekend’s thunderstorms brought a lot of rain to a few areas, but were too spotty to make much of a difference.

The latest drought outlook for May through August promises some improvement over the summer, based on traditional summer weather patterns and the start of the thunderstorm season. The long range outlooks for the June and the summer period are neutral for rainfall throughout the southeast. The weather service says that the drought conditions date back to last summer, when a lack of tropical storms left the state dryer than normal going into the winter. Indeed, the hurricane season, which starts in less than two weeks, may be what brings an end to our dry spell.

The graph above shows annual precipitation in Georgia for each year from May through April. While it’s clear that the past year has been very dry, you can see that there is a lot of variation from year to year.

Finally, last month turned out to be the 17th coldest April in Georgia since recordkeeping began in 1895, primarily due to the Easter freeze. It was also the 16th driest April in the 113 years of recorded data.

Despite the fact that we’re at the end of the first week of spring, the weather certainly seems like it isn’t cooperating. Today’s high temperature of 51 was a full 16 degrees below normal. The weather service has issued a frost advisory for tonight, and a freeze advisory for Saturday night and Sunday night. And, the 80 degree weather we saw two weekends ago seems like a distant memory.

The persistent cold is being caused by an upper-level low over Ohio that is acting to bring cold, northern air into our area. It hasn’t moved much over the last few days, and isn’t expected to be gone until Monday. Until then, we’ll see weather more like late February than late March.

It’s about time for the last freeze of the winter, which we will likely see this weekend. The average last freeze date in Atlanta is March 30th. The last time we saw a freeze in April was in 2000, when it dropped below 32 degrees on the ninth. It can be even later. In 1986, we saw a freeze as late as April 23rd.

The cooler weather is probably good news for the folks in Augusta, who always like to have the Azaleas blooming during the second week of April. I was worried that the warm weather was going to bring them out too early. So, maybe there’s a slight silver lining to the cool weather cloud.

Speaking of golf, it looks like good weather for the BellSouth Classic at Sugarloaf next week. The cool weather will finally move out early next week, and 70 degree temperatures are expected by the time the golfers tee off on Thursday. There’s a chance of thunder, though, and possible gusty winds on Friday and Saturday, but by the final round on Sunday, better weather will have returned.

The long range forecast calls for good weather for the Masters Tournament as well, with plenty of sun, and highs in the low 70s, at least for Friday and Saturday.

The Weather Service has issued its report on Winter, 2006, with the highlight being the above normal temperatures in January, particularly in the plains states. The temperature rankings for the past winter are shown below.

Georgia ranked about in the middle for both temperature and precipitation, with 67th warmest average out of 111 years reported, and the 50th wettest year for the 111 year period.

Meanwhile, the Peachtree City office of the weather service has issued its annual Shareholders Report, with weather highlights in North and Central Georgia for 2005. Highlights include the record number of tornadoes reported during the year, and the effects of the 2005 hurricanes, particularly Katrina. You’ll need Adobe PDF reader to view the report.

Four days away from the astronomical start of Spring, Atlanta is preparing to host two of its highest profile outdoor events over the next two weeks. Sunday, NASCAR comes to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Golden Corral 500. Unfortunately it looks like we may be due for a spring storm, with rain 60% likely for most of the day, and highs only in the low 50s.

The race was pushed to a later date several years ago because of persistent bad weather problems, including a major snowstorm in March of 1993 that shut down much of the country.

The other big event is the BellSouth Classic golf tournament, held here in Gwinnett on March 30th through April 2nd. Although we’re two weeks away from that, the GFS model now shows rain on Thursday, moving out on Friday. Last year saw sleet and rain, and a shortened tournament as a result. We’ll see what this year brings.

Shortly after I got to Sugarloaf Country Club and the BellSouth Classic at 10:00 this morning, an unexpected round of sleet and snow passed over the course. Walking along the 12th fairway, conditions deteriorated rapidly, as rain and sleet began to fall.

Fortunately, a corporate hospitality “Sky Box” was at the 10th green, and its owners were kind enough to let the few spectators in the area in for the duration of the storm, which was about 20 minutes. The whole thing caused about an hour and a half delay of the tournament, although conditions improved (if 55 degrees and 30 MPH winds can be called an improvement).

Similar conditions were reported in Dacula and Suwanee, which received half inch hail. Grayson, Morrow, Alpharetta and Mableton each reported light snow. At 10:30, the Weather Service updated its forecast to warn of the chance of sleet and hail during the day; in my opinion a matter of updating the forecast to match conditions, rather than seeing the possibility in advance.

So, what happened? The upper level low that passed over Georgia overnight was located in Virginia. The low is associated with several fronts that rotate counter-clockwise around the center of the low. The major cold front passed over North Georgia overnight, ending most of the precipitation, and bringing in colder air.

Behind the cold front was a secondary shortwave low pressure trough, which was able to wring out just a little more precipitation from the air. The cold air aloft was enough to turn the precipitation into sleet and snow.

Fortunately, the low continues to move away from us, and conditions should be better tomorrow, with lighter winds, and temperatures in the mid 60s. Conditions will continue to improve for the early part of the week, until the next storm system moves in on Thursday to potentially delay the start of the Masters.

This year’s PGA tour has suffered from more rain than I remember in recent years. The February California swing got caught up in the torrential rains caused by El Nino, while March’s Florida swing saw delays from rain and thunderstorms there, including this weekend’s Player’s Championship, just south of Jacksonville, where they haven’t yet been able to complete the third round as of Sunday afternoon.

The last week in March brings the tour to Georgia, this week for the BellSouth Classic in Duluth, and next week for the Masters Tournament in Augusta. Will the weather be more cooperative than it’s been?

In the short run, any leftover rain we have on Monday won’t matter, because all the golfers will be in Ponte Vedra completing the Player’s Championship. Tuesday through Thursday will be warmer than normal, but fair, with highs in the mid 70s. The weather risk comes on Thursday night and Friday. A storm system now on the west coast will send showers and thunderstorms into our area, with the exact amount and timing unclear as of now. Some forecasts call for a chance of rain overnight on Thursday, then clearing on Friday, while others, notably the GFS, holding the storm until during the day on Friday, which would cause more problems for the tournament.

Next weekend looks like it will be mostly fair, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s for the end of the Classic. After another chance of rain on Monday, April 4th, the long-range Augusta forecast calls for rain again on the opening day of the Masters, and then sensible weather for the rest of the tournament.