The number crunchers over at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville have released the final figures for Winter 2008, running from December through February. In the United States and around the world, it was the coldest winter recorded since 2001, with an average US temperature of 33.2 degrees–still .2 degrees above the 20th century average. Much of the country saw above-normal precipitation, leading to plenty of snow in the north and west.

In February, US temperatures were near average, and precipitation was above normal. It was the 84th wettest and 63rd warmest of 114 years measured. In general, the west was cooler than average, while the east was warmer. In Georgia, it was the 88th warmest winter recorded, with the warmest temperatures relative to average in the northwest and southeast corners of the state.

Winter precipitation was close to a record in a band of states stretching from Utah to New England. New York had its wettest winter ever, while Colorado, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Vermont had their second-wettest winters since records began in 1895. North Dakota had its 4th driest winter and Texas recorded its 11th driest winter. Georgia was above average in the rainfall department, although the northern part of the state was below normal and the southern part of the state was above.

Other interesting factoids from the winter:

• Concord, New Hampshire had over 100 inches of snow and Burlington Vermont recorded over 103 inches, both records. That’s over 8 feet of snow.
• In the west, mountain snowpack was 150% of normal. This is good news for communities dependent on the Colorado River, since the melting snowpack will supply water to the river basin and Lake Mead over the summer months.
• The winter’s weather was affected by the strong La Nina, which is expected to continue through spring. This may mean warmer than normal temperatures and less rainfall than normal in the southeast.

As predicted, the storm that started last week in Texas moved up the Ohio Valley on Saturday, bringing blowing snow over a foot deep in many places in Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. The map below shows the depth of the snow as of 3 AM on Sunday, March 9th.

Here are some total snowfall amounts for the storm:

Aurora, Indiana: 12 inches
Florence, Kentucky: 15.5 inches
Louisville, Kentucky: 14.4 inches
Williamstown, Kentucky: 16 inches
Cincinnati, Ohio: 10 inches
Columbus, Ohio: 20.4 inches
Dayton, Ohio: 13.1 inches
Broadview Heights, Ohio (near Cleveland): 21 inches
Franklin, Pennsylvania (near Erie): 14 inches

The satellite image above shows the effects of the snowfall.

Much of the eastern half of the country is under the grips of a late winter storm that is bringing plenty of rain and snow to many areas.  Much of Ohio is under a blizzard warning, and a winter storm warning extends from southern Arkansas to Maine.  Earlier in the week, the storm brought snow to Texas, including six inches reported near Fort Worth and up to nine inches in the northern part of the state.

This system reminds me of the storm we had back on March 12-15, 1993 which brought half a foot of snow to the Atlanta area, and much more further north. Coincidentally, that was the weekend that Atlanta Motor Speedway held its Spring NASCAR race, the same as this weekend. While the worst effects of the storm will be further west than the 93 version, there is the same type of gulf-moisture driven low pressure that we saw back then.

The low is moving northeast, dragging gulf moisture with it.  More recently, much of Arkansas and Oklahoma received up to 14 inches of the white stuff, and further north, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky have reported between 2 and 4 inches of snow, with more to come this evening as the front moves north.  Of course, the snow is on the cold side of the front.  On the warm side, temperatures stayed well above normal today, with a high here in Lawrenceville of 70 degrees.

As the cold front passes through, temperatures here in north Georgia will drop by more than 30 degrees overnight, and will be only in the low 40s on Saturday.  Temperatures in the upper 20s Saturday night could spell the end for the newly blooming Bradford Pear trees, before things start to recover on Sunday.

All the rain we’ve had recently has been good news for the North Georgia drought.  The water level at Lake Lanier stands at 1054.36 feet above sea level, almost a foot higher than where it was three days ago due to runoff from  the storms. I’ve also noticed that soil moisture measured a foot below ground level is increasing with each storm.  However, we may be nearing an end of our rainy spell.  Once the front passes through, it should remain dry through next Thursday or Friday, and the longer range outlook calls for warmer and drier weather in North Georgia from the 13th through the 21st.

As a morning person, I’ve enjoyed seeing the sun rise earlier as we approach the official first day of spring.  However, with the start of Daylight Savings Time on Sunday, the sun will rise later than it did even in the dead of winter back in early January.  With the days lengthening by over two minutes a day, it won’t be too long before we’ll be back to the sun rising before most people have to leave for work, and the later evening sunset will be appreciated as well.

While the vernal equinox isn’t for another three weeks, from a weatherman’s perspective, today is the first day of spring. And it looks like for the next two weeks or so, spring is going to be colder and wetter than normal, so take advantage of the nice weather this weekend while it lasts.

Beginning on Monday evening, another round of storms should hit much of the east coast, including Georgia. The latest hazards outlook is calling for a chance of severe thunderstorms Monday evening and Tuesday, and is also calling for some significant drought relief from the rain the storms will bring. Another front passing through later in the week could bring some rain, but it is more likely to introduce some cooler weather, with high temperatures next week at this time in the low 50s.

The 6-10 day outlook is calling for colder than normal temperatures, and greater than normal precipitation in north Georgia, while the 8-14 day outlook continues the cold trend and brings precipitation back to normal. For the month as a whole, the outlook is for warmer than normal temperatures, and normal rainfall.

For the month of February at Hartsfield Airport, Atlanta’s official observation station the total rainfall of 4.61 inches was just shy of normal, while the average temperature of 48.3 degrees was 1.6 above normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I was a little cooler, at 47.2 degrees for the average temp, and a little drier, with 4.24 inches of precipitation.

February’s rainfall caused most of the Atlanta metro area to fall back from the exceptional drought category, and back to just extreme drought. Measured through 7 AM Tuesday (which I’m not sure includes the effects of Tuesday mornings thunderstorms), only 6.1% of Georgia is in the throes of an exceptional drought, compared to 43% back in the beginning of December. Of course a year ago, only 3% of the state was in a moderate drought and 2/3 of the state was just exceptionally dry, so we have a way to go before we’re back to normal.

With winter ending, we can look back at some of the unusual events it brought, including more January snow in Atlanta than New York City, a once a century snowfall in Baghdad, Iraq and exceptional snow in China that almost brought that country to its knees. In Wisconsin, exceptional snowfall and record cold temperatures made for an unpleasant winter there. The cold weather has made some, including the Daily Tech, wonder if Global Warming is over and we are entering a period of global cooling.

You know that it’s been an unusual January when Atlanta records more snowfall than New York City. With no snow forecast for the last day of the month in either  city, Atlanta has recorded 1.4 inches of snow for the month, with most of that coming on the 19th. On the other hand, New York City recorded a trace of snow on the 27th, its only white stuff for the month.

According to an article in the New York Sun,  it’s the first time in 75 years that no measurable snow has fallen in NYC in January.  The article also quotes Weather Service officials as saying that the lack of snow in the Big Apple is due more to storm patterns tracking inland than due to global warming.

Hat tip to the Drudge Report for noticing this.

Wednesday night’s threatened winter storm didn’t end up causing too much difficulty for the metro Atlanta area. The onset of snow between 5 and 5:30 PM managed to put about a quarter inch of the white stuff on my yard and caused the temperature to drop below freezing, but by 7:30 PM, temperatures rose above 32 degrees, and stayed constant or warmed up as the overnight hours passed.

Nonetheless, at least some freezing rain was noticed in parts of Gwinnett, even if it was in limited areas. I noticed that ice was still sticking to trees after noon today along Wisteria Drive in Snellville, and the pine trees along Ronald Reagan Parkway were similarly burdened. So much of what happens in a winter storm is temperature dependent, so just a variation of a degree or so can make a big difference.

The continually varying weather we’ve seen this winter has brought relatively normal precipitation to drought-starved North Georgia. December ended up with more than the normal amount of rainfall, and the official rain gauge in Atlanta is close to what we would expect so far in a normal January.

The latest drought outlook, released today and shown at right, calls for improving conditions for much of the northern part of the state including Atlanta, with at least some relief for the rest of the state. We should see another chance of rain and/or snow Friday night and Saturday morning, with more precipitation for the latter part of next week.  Both the 6-10 and 8-14 long range outlooks call a better than average chance of rainfall.

We’re not out of the drought yet.  But, with drier than normal conditions predicted for the winter due to the presence of La Nina, it can’t be a bad thing that precipitation is running close to normal.

It looks like things could get fairly nasty Wednesday Night and into Thursday for much of the Atlanta area north of Interstate 20, and especially for the northeast counties, including Gwinnett.  An incoming low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will bring precipitation to Georgia beginning Wednesday morning.  Meanwhile, the high currently over the eastern part of Kentucky will move northeast, running into the Appalachians, and causing a ‘wedge’, or cold air damming to affect northeast Georgia.

What happens is that the colder air gets trapped on the western edge of the mountains, and the approaching lower pressure, warmer air slides above the colder, heavier air. You can tell when we’re in a CAD situation when the wind comes from the east, and it doesn’t warm up much during the day.

The presence of warm air above cooler closer to the ground tends to favor the formation of sleet or freezing rain, since the warm air layer will melt any snow as it passes through, while the cold air close to the ground will either re-freeze the precipitation, or cause freezing when the water hits the surface.

In the last day, forecasters have increased the total amount of expected precipitation from the storm to almost an inch, while dropping the low temperature Wednesday night, especially in the northeast counties most affected by the wedge.

Here’s what to expect tomorrow in the Gwinnett area:

7 AM  – The leading edge of the precipitation moves to the Atlanta area, but nothing may hit the ground because the air is so dry.  Look for dew points to increase in the morning, and the temperature to rise above early morning below freezing lows.

11 AM – Light rain begins, with temperatures above freezing, so no problems.

7 PM – After sunset, temperatures begin to cool, and the rain increases in intensity.  We may see a little sleet in the early evening.

11 PM – Temperatures drop below freezing.  Continued rain and sleet, with some freezing rain.

4 AM – The intensity of the rain begins to slow, but because temperatures have been below freezing, we’re probably seeing freezing rain at this point.

11 AM – Temperatures rise above freezing, as most of the rain  has passed from the area.

Of course, this is just my best guess, and things could  change. The further south and west you are, the better the chances that this is just a rain event. In any case, Thursday morning could be nasty.

For fans of changing weather, January so far has been right on target. After starting the year with temperatures well below normal, last week brought high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.   This week, the pattern will change again, and  bring the possibility of some  sort of frozen precipitation to  North Georgia.

A cold front will move through Georgia today, although it won’t bring any sort of precipitation. After the front passes, look for skies to clear, and temperatures to return to normal or slightly cooler than normal.

Things begin to get interesting on Wednesday, as a low pressure system develops in the Gulf of Mexico, and moves northeast into Georgia, bringing gulf moisture and a chance of precipitation by Wednesday night.  Meanwhile, high pressure out of Canada will force the jet stream southward, bring colder air to the region.  Exactly where these two systems meet will determine what type of precipitation we get.

Right now, forecasters are calling for half an inch of precipitation from the system, with lows Wednesday night just below freezing.  If the storm sticks around long enough, lows will be in the upper 20s Thursday night after daytime temperatures only in the 40s.  It’s possible we could get snow, freezing rain, or sleet, and south of Interstate 20, it will probably be all rain.

The forecast is still long range with plenty of possible outcomes, so I wouldn’t go and get the  sleds out yet.  But, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

This morning’s low temperature of 16.5 degrees in Lawrenceville, Georgia was the coldest I’ve recorded since January 24th, 2005, when the thermometer dropped to 14.6. It’s not a record for the day – that honor is held by 1928, where the temperature dropped to nine degrees in Atlanta.

The coldest weather of the 2007-2008 winter season spread throughout Georgia and Florida, with temperatures (as of 7 AM) including:

Albany, GA – 22
Athens, GA – 17
Atlanta, GA – 15
Brunswick, GA – 27
Destin, FL – 26
Gainesville, FL – 22
Macon, GA – 20
Naples, FL – 34
Orlando, FL – 31
Pensacola, FL – 23
Savannah, GA – 25
Tampa, FL – 29
Valdosta, GA – 24

Yesterday, the temperature topped out at 31.2 degrees here in Lawrenceville, and 30 in Atlanta, which is about 22 degrees below normal. As best I can tell, the last time the high temperature didn’t break the freezing mark was on January 29th, 2005, when we had a high temperature of 31.3. Wind chill readings yesterday didn’t help either, with readings in the single digits.

This week’s weather may turn out to be the coldest of the year. Temperatures will begin to moderate today, and we could see highs around 40 today, near 50 on Friday and in the 60s for the weekend, and into next week. Look for another cold night tonight though, with lows around 20.

A brutal storm that left a million people without power in the Plains states has moved east, and is causing trouble from Ohio to Massachusetts, and another storm is on the way to potentially make things worse this weekend.

Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Iowa (among others) were affected by power outages and dangerous driving conditions this week.  The satellite image below, taken earlier this afternoon, shows the effects of the storm:

The storm has now moved east, and is causing problems from Ohio through New England, with winter storm warnings posted, and up to a foot of snow forecast for portions of Pennsylvania and New York.  Because of the warm weather we are seeing in the Southeast, some areas along the boundary between the cold and warm weather are seeing combinations of snow and freezing rain.

In the Atlanta area, the passing storm brought only a slight amount of rain – certainly not enough to help the drought.

Another storm, currently over Texas, will travel Northeast, and bring additional precipitation and snowfall  to the Northeast, with another foot of snow for portions of New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont.  While forecasters had originally thought that the system would be far enough south to bring some meaningful rainfall to North Georgia, it now appears that the storm will track north, and might leave less than half an inch of rain.

The storm will bring some more seasonable weather to the Atlanta area though, with Sunday likely to be the coldest day.  It will stay cool for the first part of next week, and then warm up going into the Christmas holiday.  Meanwhile, there’s another chance for some wet weather in the middle of next week, and again next weekend.