With the start of the new month, it’s time to take a look back at February, and a look ahead to March. Here in Lawrenceville, we had a low of 26.9 degrees on the 11th, and a high of 73.2 on the 22nd, with a mean temperature of 47.4 degrees, about two degrees warmer than normal.

For precipitation, we recorded 5.3 inches of rain, or about half an inch more than normal, when you figure in averages for Atlanta and Athens. About two inches of that came in on President’s day, when the year’s first severe thunderstorms and hail pounded the area. Overall, though, we’re still about an inch and a half below normal precipitation, due to the extremely dry weather in January.

I dutifully looked at the National Weather Service’s updated monthly forecast this morning, and saw what looked a lot like the maps I posted back on February 17th. The main difference is that it’s now predicted to be colder than normal out through Arkansas and Missouri, where before it was only supposed to be colder in Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

What I found more interesting was this graphic of predicted 6-10 day temperatures:

The entire eastern half of the country will be colder than normal, and the western half will be warmer than normal.

This unusual situation is being caused by what the forecasters say is “a high PNA combined with a negative NAO and a blocking ridge over Iceland”. Translated into English, that means that high pressure aloft over the Pacific Northwest forces the cold, Arctic air down over the Great Plains until it lands at the East coast, where it is blocked by the high pressure over the North Atlantic. Right now, there is no end to this pattern in sight – we should continue through mid-March with highs only reaching the low 60s, and the reason we’ll be that warm is that the sun is getting fairly high in the sky, and providing daytime heating. At night, it will still go down to around freezing.

So, what about precipitation? Forecasts for the month call for equal chances of above or below normal precipitation north Georgia for the month. A storm later this week is likely to pass to our south and spoil spring break in Florida, and models show another chance of wet weather on the 8th, the 12th, and again around St. Patrick’s day. Keep in mind, though, that models that far out can change considerably within a few days, so this is by no means definite. I still think that we have a chance to see some more wintry weather, although it may turn out to be no more than this morning’s flurries.

Metro Atlanta work up today to light snow flurries, which continue to fall as I write this.

A band of flurries passed across the area between 4 and 5 this morning, and additional light snow was reported through about 10 AM.

These two pictures show some light snow covering my yard, and the surrounding street. Although a few areas reported icy patches during the morning drive, all in all, the snow is not a problem, and won’t last, as the skies will clear during the day.

Overnight, we’ll see a hard freeze, with temperatures dropping to around 25, which may cause problems for the Bradford Pears that are preparing to bloom.

This light snow is just a touch of a major storm that is dumping lots of snow in the Northeast United States.

In Boston, they’ve had 8 1/2 inches of snow as of 8:30 this morning, while in Central Park, 7 1/2 inches fell. 9 inches fell in Newark, and 5 inches fell in Baltimore.

Continued snow is expected in the Northeast for the rest of the day, before tapering off this evening, with an additional foot expected in some areas.

Forecasters on the eastern seaboard are keeping a sharp eye on the low pressure system that is currently tracking across the Gulf coast.
The path of the storm will determine whether the northeast gets rain, snow, or a blizzard. The image to the right is my crude drawing of the storm’s expected path, based on the 6Z Sunday runs of the GFS and NAM forecast models. The NAM prefers a more inland route, while the GFS shows the low moving out to sea, before getting back on land in Rhode Island.

With the NAM model, Atlanta gets more rain later today and tonight than we would get with the GFS model. Further north, the major East coast cities get a few inches of snow, before the weather turns into rain … essentially a non-event.

With the GFS model, East coast cities get a major blizzard, with 8-12 inches of snow possible in some areas in northern Virginia, eastern Pennsylvania, and Boston. The storm will also be affected by a cold front moving from Minnesota across the Great Lakes, and through Pennsylvania tonight and Monday. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Here in Georgia, the storm plays itself out by midday Monday, with no threat of snow or freezing rain. Then, a cold wave comes in, with low temps Monday through Wednesday nights below freezing, and daytime highs below 50. During this period, we might see a few flurries, but nothing to worry about unless you plan to go to the Carolina mountains.

Longer term, all indications call for colder than normal temps through mid-March. It’s ironic how we have apparently traded the first two weeks of January for the first two weeks of March, temperature-wise.

After this weekend’s storm, we have high pressure in the area for the week, with a possible weak frontal system causing precipitation on Saturday. There’s a more likely chance of bad weather on March 8th and again on March 11th. It’s too early to tell whether this will be rain, snow, or a mix.

It looks like our southern groundhog may have had it wrong earlier this month when he predicted an early spring for Georgia. Looking at the long range forecasts, once we get past this weekend, the first week of March looks a lot more like it should be the first week of February.

Short Term, the threat of thunder moves south of us today, and we’ll have warm weather once the fog burns off later this morning. Tomorrow, colder air approaches from the north as moisture approaches from the south, setting up a wedge situation in our area. Although this is the same type of weather that created our ice storm last month, at this point, at least, it looks like it will be cold rain rather than ice, but things could change.

Seasonable temperatures return for the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s, and lows in the upper 30s.

Then, things begin to go downhill. Monday’s highs are expected to be around 50, with lows below freezing. We’ll stay in this temperature range until at least March 8th. Meanwhile, the low pressure system currently dumping 2 months worth of rain on southern California in two days moves east, and approaches our area late on March 1st. Another wet period expected around the 5th, and a third around the 8th.

Whether any of this turns into frozen precipitation is up in the air. The NCEP ensembles show a 40% probability of snow on March 1st, however the GFS indicates that it will be too warm this far south, and we will get rain instead. The GFS shows it being cold enough on the 8th to produce snow, and a 30% likelihood of precipitation.

Forecasters are pointing out similarities in certain weather features compared to years when early spring snowfalls surprised residents of the Mid Atlantic and the South. As always, we’ll know the weather when it gets here, but I wouldn’t use the flower show next week as your excuse to start planting your annuals and tomatoes quite yet.

As of noon Saturday, temperatures were hovering around 29 degrees, up from an overnight low of 26°. We had a high of 31° shortly after 7 PM, still below the freezing mark. There is a possibility of additional precipitation this evening, with an upper wave rotating into Georgia. The National Weather Service extended its Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM, citing the lack of improvement in the weather conditions.

It looks like much of the precipitation overnight on Friday night was sleet, with about 1/2 inch on the ground, and less than 1/4 inch of ice on the trees. Later on during the day Saturday, this changed to mixed rain and sleet, which built up the ice on exposed objects to about 3/8 inch, and made driving difficult. The Weather Channel was reporting an inch of sleet as of late afternoon in metro Atlanta. By Saturday night, you could hear the trees crackling as the wind blew, and over 100,000 Georgia customers had lost power due to the storm. The good news is that by 10 AM on Sunday, temperatures will begin to warm up, with a high on Sunday of 44.

To the right is a picture of ice-laden dogwood trees backlit by the neighborhood streetlight on Saturday evening. Click here to view additional pictures of the effects of the weather in our area.

That’s what the forecaster at the National Weather Service called this weekend’s weather in North Georgia. After a brief round of sleet around sunset, the second wave of wet weather arrived in mid evening as far south as Americus, and moved northward, with significant icing across much of North Georgia.

Temperatures continued to drop as the wet weather arrived, caused by evaporational cooling. In metro Atlanta, temps were in the mid 20s at 5 AM, with freezing weather as far south as middle Georgia. At this point, temps are not expected to go above freezing until sometime Sunday morning. Freezing rain, and possibly some snow will continue throughout the period, with the heaviest icing in the metro Atlanta area. After 7 PM, the chance of freezing rain drops overnight.

The winter storm warning remains in effect until 4 PM. Travel isn’t recommended, with I-85 closed in the Hamilton Mill area. Looking out my window, I can see what looks to be about a quarter inch of snow/sleet on the ground, not only in grassy areas, but also on the street. I’ll try to get out once it gets light to get some pictures. Some folks have posted their experiences from earlier last evening in the ‘comments’ area of the post below. Please tell us what you see using the Comments link.

The National Weather Service forecast map for today shows the wide-ranging effects of the storm. While we’re getting freezing rain, heavy snow is possible in an boomerang shaped area from eastern Illinois, to West Virginia, and on south through eastern Tennessee. The freezing rain will move up through North Carolina and Virginia.

Yesterday’s winter weather watch has become today’s winter storm warning, in effect from 9 PM on Friday through 4 PM on Saturday. Predictions on the location and scope of the storm have not changed too much since the watch was issued Thursday afternoon.

The biggest threat is for freezing rain, which could accumulate to between 1/4 and 1/2 inch in Gwinnett County. We could also see some sleet, particularly early in the storm, and some snow mixed in as well. The precipitation should slack off late Saturday afternoon, and then return as rain on Sunday.

The big question is how warm it will get on Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will be between 27 and 29 degrees. If temperatures stay below freezing for most of the afternoon, we have a greater potential for ice accumulation. Saturday’s predicted high is 34 degrees, with temperatures rising above freezing around noon, and remaining steady through Sunday morning, when the temperature should begin to rise to about 50 degrees through the afternoon, ending the weather threat.

The predicted amount of ice accumulation on trees, power lines and other above-ground objects means that there is a good chance of a power failure during the period, and ice damage to trees. Make sure you are prepared for the possibility of no power tomorrow.

I will try to post observations and pictures of any damage I see locally, although if the power does go out, I won’t be able to update anything on the site, including the currrent conditions. Feel free to post your observations as well, using the comment link below.

As of just before noon today, the National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch north of a line from West Point to Thomaston to Sandersfille from Friday night to Saturday afternoon.
The image to the right from the National Weather Service shows that the winter storm might reach much further south than predicted earlier this morning. The pink area, which includes Atlanta inside the perimeter, will see freezing rain (ZR) and sleet (IP) The gold area, which includes Gwinnett, will likely see the same thing. Extreme northeast Georgia will probably see a combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

I think that what is happening is that the cold air mas approaching from the north is turning out to be a lot stronger than thought earlier in the week. The predicted high for the Lawrenceville area on Saturday is now predicted to be only between 32 and 35 degrees — several degrees lower than predicted just a few hours ago. In addition there appears to be more moisture from the storm approaching from the southwest.

It’s beginning to look like the area of freezing rain predicted for this weekend is being extended south and west of where it was estimated to be on Tuesday.
As you can see in the image at the left, light rain moves into Gwinnett county by 10 PM on Friday, and turns into freezing rain by 4 AM on Saturday. The area of freezing rain moves eastward and becomes more widespread by 10 AM, and should be all rain by 4 PM. The freezing rain should stay north Interstate 20.

Temperatures should drop below freezing around midnight Friday, and could reach 28 degrees just before sunrise Saturday, and will probably rise above freezing around noon. Of course, all of this is still two days away, and the forecast could change, but it might be a good idea to get your errands out of the way today and tomorrow.

Although the threat of freezing rain ends as things warm up Saturday afternoon, we’ll still see cloudy, wet weather typical of a wedge situation until Tuesday, when high pressure moves into the area. We’ll probably see a total of about 1/2 inch of precipitation throughout the period.

January is likely to end up being a dry month. We should normally have just over four inches of rain by the end of January; I’ve only recorded 1.14 inches of rain so far, with most of that recorded on January 14th. Hartsfield Airport has had 1.57 inches. Even if we get half an inch over the weekend, we will end the month with two fewer inches of rain than normal.

The first major winter weather event of 2005 brought plenty of snow to the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. New snowfall records were set at Boston’s Logan Airport and Manhattan’s Central Park. Here are some 24 hour snowfall totals for selected cities, as of early late Saturday or early Sunday, January 23, 2005:

Philadelphia, PA – 11 inches as of 1:00 AM
Blue Bell, PA – 12 inches as of 2:00 AM
Allentown, PA – 8.3 inches as of 1:00 AM
Wilmington, DE – 8.0 inches as of 1:00 AM
Mount Holly, NJ – 9:0 inches as of 1:00 AM
Central Park, NY – 8.5 inches (a new record)
Darien, CT – 13.5 inches as of 11 PM
New Haven, CT – 10.0 inches as of 12 AM
Newark, NJ – 8.9 Inches as of 12 AM
Oyster Bay NY – 13.0 inches as of 1:15 AM
La Guardia Airport NY – 10.0 inches as of 12:00 AM
Boston Logan Airport, MA – 9.1 inches as of 12:00 AM
Hyannis, MA – 17.8 inches as of 4:10 AM
Peabody, MA – 24.0 inches as of 6:23 AM
Worcester, MA – 18.1 inches as of 5:38 AM
Amherst, NH – 18.0 inches as of 6:31 AM
West Warwick, RI – 14.0 inches as of 3:56 AM

The snow is expected to continue in New England until late this afternoon, with 10 to 16 inches expected in Portland, Maine and 28 to 38 inches expected in Boston. The situation is made worse, with high winds averaging 30 MPH.