Once again, it’s Groundhog Day, when the marmots emerge from their holes and decide whether spring is near or not. This year, Lilburn’s own Beauregard Lee emerged on a rainy morning and didn’t see his shadow, foretelling an early spring. However, up in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil arose and saw his shadow, calling for six more weeks of winter. Other woodchucks in Long Island and Canada also split on their forecasts.

Of course, the idea of an animal being able to predict the weather might be more valid if we looked at the timing of its emergence, rather than forcing a decision on February 2nd. For example, I saw the first robin of the season over the weekend. The daffodils seem to be running late this year, another sign of a late spring. The weather service also is calling for a late spring, at least in the south (see my previous post), and the outlook for the next two weeks calls for colder than normal weather.

By the way, how do they decide if the groundhog has made an accurate prediction? At least in Pennsylvania, they look at the number of days in the six weeks after groundhog day when the temperature rises above 40 degrees. If it’s more than half, spring arrived early. 40 degrees wouldn’t work here in Atlanta, where the normal high temperature on February 2nd is 54 degrees. By the first of March, it will be up to 60.

January wasn’t very warm. The mean temperature at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta for the month was 38.5 degrees, which was 4.2 degrees below normal. It was a little cooler here in Lawrenceville, with 37.3 degrees. Athens was slightly warmer with an average 39.7 degrees, 2.5 degrees below normal. January rainfall was 5.38 inches in Atlanta, .35 inches above normal. Athens had more precipitation, with 6.2 inches, or 1.51 inches above normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 5.06 inches of rain, however that might be a little short of reality, since my rain gauge doesn’t really handle snow very well.

There’s plenty more rain coming later in the week — up to three inches more. I’m getting tired of it, as I’m sure you are as well.

With October now in the history books, it’s pretty clear that north Georgia had its second very wet month in a row. Athens reported 9.14 inches of precipitation, with only 1937 being wetter, with 11.23 inches. In Atlanta, Hartsfield-Jackson airport recorded 8.71 inches, with only 1995′s Hurricane Opal bring more October rain than last month, with 11.04 inches.

Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 7.47 inches, in Gainesville, they had 11.2 inches or rain, with Macon and Columbus still top-ten wet, with 6.37 and 6.39 inches of precipitation, respectively. Even more of an eye-opener is the two month totals for September and October, shown graphically below:

The two month period saw 17.65 inches of rain fall in Atlanta, second only to 1888, when 18.25 inches fell. Both Athens and Macon had their wettest September and October ever, with 19 inches in Athens and 17.05 inches of rain in Macon. Columbus had it’s third wettest September-October with 11.69 inches, and in Lawrenceville, which received some of the heaviest rainfall in the September flooding, I recorded 23.3 inches for the period.

Usually heavy late-summer rain is brought about via tropical storms or hurricanes affecting Georgia, but not this year. (This season has had the least tropical activity since 1997, with one month to go before it ends). And of course the one benefit to all the rain is that it returned Lake Lanier to full pool, marking a recovery from the drought.

October also proved to be cooler than normal for North Georgia. Atlanta’s average temperature of 61 degrees was 1.9 degrees cooler than normal, while in Athens, the average of 60.7 degrees was 1.1 degree less than normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded an average of 59 degrees, cooler still.

It looks like we’ll have a chance to dry out during the first two weeks of November, though, and perhaps see temperatures a bit warmer than normal for mid-Autumn. The short term forecast is for dry weather, while the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are also calling for warm and dry. For the month as a whole, the Climate Prediction center calls for a 33% chance of drier than normal conditions, and equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

Enjoy November, because the winter forecasts from December through February I’ve seen are almost unanimous in their call for a cold, wet winter.

Now that September is over, we can look back at a month that will be remembered for plenty of rain. Of course, it all depended on where you were: Gwinnett, Cobb and Douglas counties received far more precipitation than did the official measuring station at Hartsfield Airport. Still, it was the fifth wettest September on record in Atlanta, with 8.94 inches, or 219% of normal. It was the third wettest September in Macon with 10.68 inches, or 328% of normal, and the fourth wettest in Athens, with 9.86 inches, or 279% of normal rainfall.

At my house in Lawrenceville, I recorded 16.28 inches of rain, or 427% of normal rain. Gainesville reported 12.10 inches of rain, or 275% of normal, and Peachtree DeKalb airport had 15.74 inches of precipitation, or 420% of normal. The image above graphically displays the month’s rainfall. Click on it to enlarge.

Cooler than normal temperatures early in the month were balanced out with warmer than normal temperatures later on, ending up with a more or less normal average temperature for September. Atlanta’s mean temperature was 73.4 degrees, two tenths of a degree above normal. In Gainesville, the average of 71.0 degrees was 0.7 degrees cooler than normal, and in Athens, temperatures were half a degree above normal, with 73.1.

By now, even the most cynical will have to admit that the drought that plagued Georgia from 2006-2008 is finally over. A recent study by Columbia University indicated the drought wasn’t caused by global warming, and in fact wasn’t that unusual. The study says that the drought appeared more serious this time because of the Atlanta region’s growing population. While there was enough water for the region during similar droughts in the 1950s, not enough additional water storage was available to meet needs this time.

Much of the southeast US has been caught up in a blocking pattern over the past few days, with an upper level low pressure system stuck over the Mississippi/Louisiana area causing wet, tropical air to be brought up from the Gulf of Mexico. While there’s no tropical storm bringing in all this precipitation, the effects are much the same.

In fact, the three day total rainfall I’ve recorded at my home of 4.45 inches is the largest three day total since exactly five years ago on September 16-17, 2004, when 4.73 inches of rain fell as the remnants of Hurricane Ivan came through the state. And it’s possible that we’ll get even more rain later today to beat that record.

Rainfall amounts are varying widely across north Georgia. While I don’t yet have official readings for today, yesterday, Atlanta recorded .76 inches of rain, while I received 2.23 inches. Other areas with a lot of rain yesterday include Chamblee with 1.99 inches and Charlie Brown field with 1.16 inches.

Unfortunately, the rain is going to stick around through the weekend and possibly into the first part of next week before we get to a dry spell. With the ground already saturated from rain, much of Georgia from the Atlanta metro area south has been placed in a flood watch until Saturday morning. As of now, there are no reports of flooding, but it’s certainly possible.

July ended up being cooler than normal for the northern and eastern parts of the US, in some cases setting records or near records for the cold weather.

In Atlanta, the average temperature of 78.1 was 1.9 degrees cooler than normal, and cooler than it was in June, when the average temperature was 79.8 degrees, or three degrees above normal. July’s colder than normal temperatures were helped out by low humidity and much colder than normal lows from the 18th through the 21st, with two record low temperatures set during that time.

Atlanta was not the only location to have a colder than normal July. In New York City, the average temperature of 72.7 was 3.8 degrees below normal, continuing a trend that began earlier in the spring. With a high temperature of 84 degrees in June and 86 in July, this was the second time New York weather failed to reach 90 degrees in June or July. The other time was in 1996.

Other cities with colder than normal temperatures in July include Chicago, whose average temperature of 71.0 degrees was 4.5 degrees colder than normal; Cincinnati, with a 70.9, 5.9 degrees colder than normal and Kansas City, Missouri, with an average of 75.4, 3.1 degrees colder than normal.

The heat did show up in much of Texas. In Houston, the average temperature of 86.7 was 3.1 degrees warmer then normal, and in Austin, the average of 89 was 4.8 degrees warmer than normal.

Rainfall in Georgia seemed to be concentrated in the western part of the state. Atlanta ended up with 5.02 inches of July rain, just slightly less than normal. However in Lawrenceville, I only received 3.48 inches, most of it on the last few days of the month. In Athens, only 1.33 inches of precipitation fell, which was 30% of normal July rainfall.

The other thing that was missing in July was any sign of tropical weather activity. No storms were observed in either June or July in the Atlantic basin, and the team over at Colorado State University has lowered its predictions for the season to ten named storms from the eleven forecast back in early June, and four hurricanes, down from five predicted earlier.

The comparatively light hurricane forecast is due to the development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific ocean. The warmer than normal ocean temperatures tend to produce greater than normal upper level winds, which prevent storm from forming as easily.

The busiest period for tropical storms and hurricanes is typically from mid-August to late September, so we still have to face the heart of the season. And, remember than even though there are fewer than normal storms, the few storms than do occur can still be major–remember Andrew in 1992. It was the first named storm of the season, and devastated Miami and southern Florida.

This morning, I recorded a low of 13.5 degrees at my home near Brookwood High School. That’s the lowest temperature reading I’ve had since I started keeping records in January of 2002. While that’s mighty cold, it’s not going to match the record of 5 degrees, set on January 16, 1972.

The cold weather stretched across Georgia this morning, with lows of 10 degrees reported in Canton, Chamblee, Dalton, Marietta and Rome, 12 degrees in Atlanta Hartsfield, Canton, Gainesville and Marietta. Elsewhere, it was 14 in Athens, 19 in Columbus, 21 in Macon and 30 degrees in Brunswick.

If we get above 32 degrees today, it won’t be for very long. Saturday morning’s temperatures are going to approach this morning’s lows, but again, it’s not likely to be record-breaking. The record low for January 17th in Atlanta is 0, set in 1982.

Temperatures will begin to rise on Saturday, setting the stage for some possible wintry weather from Saturday night into Sunday. This appears to be a somewhat tricky forecast, since models vary on the amount of moisture available for precipitation. Conditions will be cold enough to support snow, however, so stay tuned as the weekend progresses.

The unusually cold weather hasn’t been confined to Georgia. As the cold air moved across the country this week, a record low ever for Illinois was recorded at 27 below 0. Yesterday’s low temperature was -48 in Garrison, North Dakota.

We’re at the end of 2008, and it’s time to take a look at some of the significant weather events affecting metro Atlanta, Georgia and the United States during the past year.

If there was one single event that could serve as a highlight to the Atlanta area, it would be the tornado that struck downtown on March 14th. The F2 tornado brought 120 MPH winds near the Georgia Dome, disrupting NCAA Basketball playoffs and causing significant damage to the dome, the World Congress Center and several other buildings. An additional ten tornadoes were reported on the following day in Georgia. Other significant Georgia tornadic activity occurred on February 17th and Mother’s Day, May 12th.

The 2008 hurricane season was also above average, with 16 named storms. The two most likely to be remembered are Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Ike. Fay is the only storm to make landfall in a single state (Florida) four times, bringing over two feet of rain to parts of the state. Fay was also the only storm to significantly affect the Atlanta area as her remnants finally moved northward on August 24th.

Hurricane Ike caused the most damage to the United States since Katrina in 2005. Although it was a category 2 storm when it made landfall near Galveston on September 13th, strong winds and a storm surge caused over $8 billion in damage. Combined with Hurricane Gustav two weeks earlier, the storms caused some significant disruption in Gulf oil production, leading to high prices and gasoline shortages in Georgia during late September.

Seemingly never-ending rain in the upper Midwest in June caused serious flood damage especially in Iowa, but also in Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. 83 Iowa counties were declared disaster areas because of the flooding. Major parts of Iowa and Missouri had their wettest January-June since recordkeeping started.

it was a different story in the Southeast, however as drought conditions continued across much of Georgia and the Carolinas. In Atlanta, the year will end up having 8.63 fewer inches of rainfall than normal, while in Athens, they will end up 11.33 inches short of normal precipitation. Conditions were closer to normal further south, with both Columbus and Macon having more rain than normal for 2008. As the year draws to a close, none of Georgia has exceptional drought conditions, compared to over 16% a year ago, and 69% of the state is drought free, compared to 2% at the beginning of the year.

Overall, 2008 was a year of some extreme weather, from snow falling in New Orleans, Houston and Las Vegas to Atlanta’s having more January snow than New York City. Overall, 2008 will be the coldest for the United States since 1997. What does that mean for the theory of man made global warming? Deroy Murdock has some thoughts on this.

Have a happy and safe new year, and we’ll pick up on the weather (which looks like it may be colder and wetter to start) in 2009.

Temperatures across the Southeast remained colder than normal in November, and Georgia recorded its 27th wettest November out of 114, unfortunately with most of the rain in the southern part of the state. For the entire United States, it was the 10th warmest and 41st driest November since recordkeeping began back in 1895, according to the National Climate Data Center.

Most of the above normal temperatures were in the west, with nine states from Colorado to California having top 10 warm Novembers, and five states having top 5 warm Novembers. Because of the trough that sat over the eastern half of the country for most of the month, most of the states east of the Mississippi were colder than normal, with Georgia and South Carolina experiencing top 10 (or should that be bottom 10) coldest Novembers.

Only North Dakota had a top ten wettest November, with most of the country having about normal rainfall. However, the Midwest and South had their 27th and 28th driest November on record.

Of course, the cold November weather in the Southeast doesn’t compare to what’s going on now in the plains states. This morning’s low was 33 degrees below zero in Havre, Montana, the coldest spot in the country. The western trough is bringing Siberian air to much of the country, as you can see by looking at the US temperatures early this evening;

A strong cold front is running along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, with locations to the east much warmer than those to the west. Yesterday, Denver recorded a new record low for the date of 18 below zero. The previous low record was -14, set in 1901. Fortunately for those of us in the Atlanta area, the front isn’t going to get this far, and we should see warmer than normal temperatures through the end of the week.

The NCDC has released the final figures on temperature and precipitation for September 2008, and nationwide, last month was the 49th warmest and 38th wettest during the 114 years data has been kept. Here in Georgia, we had an average temperature of 74.4 degrees, slightly cooler than the 20th century average. For the entire 114 year period since 1895, the state’s temperature was right in the middle, both the 57th coolest and the 57th warmest September.

With the exception of the southern Great Plains area, most of the country was normal to slightly above normal, except for California, which had much above normal temperatures:

Georgia’s precipitation during September matches what I had already noted for Atlanta: the fifth driest on record. The entire state got less than normal rainfall, with the most rain falling in the triangle bounded by Clayton, Savannah and Macon. Statewide, 1.28 inches of precipitation fell in September, -2.72 inches less than the 1901-2000 average.

For the country as a whole, it was the 38th wettest September, with much of the rain caused by hurricanes Gustav and Ike, and tropical storm Hanna. You can see that the lower Mississippi valley had close to record rainfall due to Gustav and Ike, while Hanna and the unnamed storm brought more than usual precipitation to the east coast. California had its driest September ever–reports are that they are now bringing in dowsers to find water–while Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida weren’t that far behind:

Year to date, Georgia is having its 28th driest January-September on record. However, that’s a great improvement from 2007, when the same time period was the fifth driest, and 2006 when it was the eighth driest.

If you have looked at the morning weather forecasts over the past few days, you might have noticed that high temperatures did not reach what was predicted. Despite forecasts for the mid 70s today, the high in Lawrenceville didn’t make it above 68. On Tuesday, the high was 75 in Lawrenceville, and 80 in Atlanta.

Blame the whole thing on cold air damming, popularly known as the wedge effect, where high pressure at the surface is trapped by the mountains and is overrun by lower pressure. We’ve got a high located near the Georgia/North Carolina border that is interacting with lower pressure arriving from the west. Since air at high pressure is heavier than air at low pressure, the lower pressure air forms a ‘blanket’ over the high pressure, causing cloudiness, lower temperatures, and winds from the east.

Tuesday, the damming effect wasn’t as pronounced, and ended just west of Gwinnett, so Atlanta wasn’t affected, and got warmer than it did further east. As the high moved further south, it got stronger, affecting a wider area today.

Meanwhile, we’ve got a summer report card. For the months of June – August, which in weather terms is the summer, temperatures were above average for the United States–the 22nd warmest year out of 114 years recorded, and also much wetter than usual–the 15th wettest out of 114 years.

States with extremely warm summers include California, New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Georgia’s summer temperatures were also warmer than normal, ranking 31st warmest out of 114. However, much of the warmth was along the coast and the South Carolina border. The Atlanta area was closer to normal.

Tropical weather contributed to the wetter than normal summer. Mississippi, which felt the brunt of both Fay and Hanna had its wettest August ever. Florida and Alabama, both affected by Fay, had their second wettest August on record. Georgia had its 5th wettest August ever, and was near normal for the summer, again mostly due to the effects of Tropical Storm Fay.