It has been one of the quietest starts to the hurricane season in years. While most years have at least one named Atlantic storm in July, there have been none yet this year. The last time it took this long to get a named storm was 1992, when Hurricane Andrew hit Florida. The lack of storms is being blamed on El Nino conditions this year, which tend to produce conditions in the Atlantic that don’t favor tropical development.

We still don’t have a named storm, but are likely to get one by this time tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center has identified Tropical Depression Two forming from a wave off the African coast. The depression, which will become tropical storm Ana if it intensifies, is too far east to know where or if it will impact the US coastline.

As a followup to my earlier post on July temperatures, the NCDC released its official temperature rankings for July, and it looks like a lot of records were broken.

It was the coldest July in 115 years of recordkeeping on Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan and Kentucky having their second coldest July ever. In Georgia, it was the 15 coolest July on record.

The 90 degree temperatures we’ve seen for the last week or so have kept August about 1.5 degrees above normal so far. Today will likely be the last day we see 90 for the rest of the week, as an approaching frontal system and the attendant clouds and storms will keep temperatures down. Today is the last of the Dog Days, traditionally the hottest period of the summer, from July 3rd through August 11th. And today’s ‘normal’ low dropped by a degree from yesterday, from 71 to 70. By the end of the month, the daily average temperature will have dropped by three degrees from today’s 80.

Extremely unusual weather for mid-July has broken low temperature records around the state, with much of Georgia seeing late September like weather during what is normally the warmest stretch of the year.

On Sunday, Atlanta tied a record low of 63 degrees, set in 1967. The low in Athens of 58 beat the prior record of 62 set in 1925. In Columbus, it was 62 degrees Sunday morning, breaking the previous low of 66, set in 1987. And in Macon, a low of 58 beat the old record of 61, set in 1967.

Monday morning’s low of 61 in Atlanta tied the previous record, set in 1946. In Athens, a low of 60 degrees broke the almost 100 year low record of 61, set in 1910. In Columbus, a low of 64 also tied the previous record, set in 1946. And in Macon, a low of 61 beat the previous low of 62, set in 1987.

There’s another chance for record lows tomorrow morning before the weather starts returning to normal during the latter part of the week. A stationary front located near the Georgia-Florida border is keeping the normal summertime humidity from the Gulf coast from moving north, and the exceptionally dry air is letting daytime heat escape into the clear night skies.

The normal high for July 20th is 88 degrees, and the normal low is 70.

If it seems pretty warm out there, you’re right. Today’s high temperature of 95.1 in Lawrenceville at 2:20 PM makes it the warmest day of 2009 so far. Of course, the 93-95 degree high temperatures we’ve had for the last two weeks are 5-8 degrees above normal. In Atlanta, it’s been over ten days since the low temperature dropped below 70 degrees, another sign of a heat wave. For the month to date, Atlanta is 2.9 degrees above normal, with an average temperature of 79.5. In Lawrenceville, where nighttime temperatures don’t have the same heat island effect as Atlanta, the average is 77.4 degrees.

All of this isn’t being helped by the lack of rainfall — none here in the last two weeks. Now I know that it has rained in places around Atlanta — just not here. Rain chances increase from this afternoon to tomorrow evening, but after a cold front passes through Sunday night, it’s back to warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather for the work week.

The August heat wave looks like it will go on through Thursday, but at least here at my house, today was the warmest day so far in 2008. It got up to 99 degrees (well, 98.7) at 2:10 PM, topping the 97.1 reached on both June 8 and July 10. It could have been worse though: with the dew point in the low 60s, the heat index was only 102 degrees.

Temperatures reached the century mark today in Augusta, Milledgeville, Savannah, Athens and Vidalia. For whatever reason, it stayed a bit cooler in Atlanta today, with highs only in the low 90s. Tomorrow, the humidity goes back up, and by tomorrow afternoon, the approaching front will bring a chance of rainfall, and at least a temporary end to the excessive heat we’ve been seeing recently.

Hurricane Forecast Update

We’re about ready to get into the strongest part of the hurricane season, from mid-August through the end of October.  The folks at Colorado State University have updated their tropical forecast and are now calling for more storms than they predicted back in April and repeated in June.

Instead of 15 named storms, the predicted total has been upped to 17, with nine hurricanes, instead of eight. Five of those should be intense, compared to four predicted previously.  Part of the reason for upping the predictions is the number of storms we’ve seen through July, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane. That doesn’t count Edouard, which was the first storm in August.  According to the forecast, only 2005 (the year of Katrina) and 1916 have had more active pre-August tropical activity.

There’s a 2/3 chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US during the rest of the season, with a better than 40% chance of a storm striking either the east coast or the gulf coast.  Overall, the forecasters are predicting a tropical season that is 190% as active than the average season from 1950-2000.

In addition to providing forecasts for the rest of the season, the Dr. Gray and his team are providing a forecast for August tropical activity. If they are right, we will have four storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one intense hurricane this month. With Edouard already occuring, that’s the non-hurricane storm, if their forecast is correct. They will also issue forecasts for September and October at the beginning of those months.

The June heat wave continued to set records today throughout the east coast. Here are some of the new records:

Atlanta: 98 degrees, with the old record of 97 set in 1995. In addition, this morning’s low temperature of 76 was warmer than the previous high minimum temperature for June 9th of 75 degrees.
Athens: 102 degrees, besting the previous record of 99, set in 1926.
Columbus: 97 ties the record set back in 1986
Macon: 100 ties the previous record from 1954.

Other locations in Georgia, including Augusta, Gainesville, Albany and Savannah also saw highs in the upper 90s, but failed to break any records. Here at my unofficial weather station, I recorded 97 degrees around 2:30 PM. Additional records from around the eastern seaboard:

Raleigh, North Carolina – 99 degrees breaks previous record of 98 set in 1999
Richmond, Virginia – Tied record high of 98 set in 1999.
Atlantic City NJ – 98 degrees beats previous record of 96 set in 1984
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – Tied record high of 95 set in 1999
Hartford, Connecticut – Tied record high of 96 set in 1984
Providence, Rhode Island – 97 degrees tops previous record 95 set in 1984
New York LaGuardia Airport high temperature of 99 tops previous record of 95 from 1984
Newark, New Jersey ties old record of 99 set in 1933

If it’s any consolation, all this heat comes after what turned out to be a very cool spring for most of the country. The average spring temperature of 54.4 degrees was .5 degrees cooler than the 20th century average.

Georgia experienced its 36th coldest spring in 114 years of recordkeeping. Only Texas and the states in the BosWash corridor were above normal. On the precipitation side, California had its driest spring ever, prompting the declaration of drought conditions in the Golden State. The long suffering Mississippi valley had much wetter than normal conditions, with Missouri having its fourth wettest spring, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. Georgia was drier than normal, it’s 26th driest. While Georgia remains in a drought, by the end of May, 24% of the country was considered to be in a wet spell.

Today’s temperatures, averaging more then ten degrees above normal, broke records across Georgia and the eastern seaboard, as the heat wave we’re in continues. Here are some temperatures from around the area, along with the record temperature for June 8th:

Athens – High 101 Old Record 96
Columbus – High 97 Old Record 96
Macon – High 98 Ties Old Record
Savannah – High 97 Record 100
Augusta – High 100 Record 103
Atlanta – 95 Record 96
Gainesville – 95 Record 97
Charlotte, NC – 99 Ties Old Record
Asheville, NC – 93 Old Record 91
Raleigh, NC – 101 Old Record 100
Wilmington, NC – 98 Old Record 96
Greenville, SC – 100 Ties Old Record
Richmond, VA – 100 Old Record 99
Burlington VT – 91 Ties Old Record

It looks like the warmest Georgia temperatures were on a line from Albany to Augusta, with Statesboro also posting highs crossing the century mark. The coolest spot in the state was St. Simons island with a balmy 86, nowhere near a record.

Today is probably the warmest day of the heat wave here in Georgia. For the Mid-Atlantic and New England states, the warmest day comes on Monday. Beginning tomorrow, the upper-level high pressure that has been keeping the rain away moves out over the Atlantic, and we’ll have a better chance of afternoon thundershowers as the new week progresses.

Notes and Asides:

This is the 400th post I’ve made on the blog since starting.

As much of the southeast US enjoys record setting temperatures in December, maybe it’s only appropriate that a late subtropical storm make an appearance in the Caribbean Sea.  Subtropical Storm Olga is being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, and is making landfall over the Dominican Republic:

Don’t expect any drought relief from Olga, though.  Although she could drop up to a foot of rain over Santo Domingo, by Wednesday afternoon the storm will have become a tropical depression, and the remnant low will be over the Yucatan peninsula by the weekend.

Meanwhile, metro Atlanta is enjoying its third straight day of record warmth.  With the temperature already at 75 degrees, we’ve broken the old record for December 11th of 73, set back in 1985.  Yesterday’s high of 77 degrees broke the old record of 74, which was set in 1972, and Sunday’s high of 76 topped the previous record of 71 degrees in 1978.

Look for more warm temperatures through Thursday, when the high pressure system holding off the storms to the north will start to break down and bring in at least some rain.  By the weekend, it will feel more like winter, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Any benefit from the more or less normal rainfall seen in Georgia in July has now evaporated, and the latest drought monitor shows 70 Georgia counties as being in an exceptional drought, seen only every 100 years. Another 40 Georgia counties are in extreme drought conditions, expected to be seen only once every 50 years.

The percentage of Georgia land area in exceptional drought conditions rose from 26.9 to 39.1 in the last week, as record-breaking temperatures and lack of any sort of rain has taken its toll. River flows are also down, with the Chattooga in north Georgia at one of its lowest levels in 67 years of recordkeeping.



The image to the right shows the estimated drought conditions in the eastern half of the United States one month ago, on July 24th, compared to this week. While recent storms in the midwest have reduced drought conditions there, the persistent high pressure ridge over the southeast that arrived at the beginning of August has intensified the drought.

The good news is that the ridge is breaking down, and the fall weather patterns already affecting the northern states are also beginning to affect the south. While Thursday’s high temperature of 98 at the Atlanta airport broke the previous record of 97, set in 1983, a wave of thunderstorms in the early evening brought relief to at least some parts of north Georgia.

There’s a chance of storms each day for the next week, and the chance of rain is likely to increase as we move into the Labor Day weekend. However, with the equivalent of 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of soil moisture being lost per day due to plant use and evaporation, it’s going to take some tropical weather to make a big difference in the drought levels. Although the tropics are going to be quiet for the next few days, the strongest part of the tropical season will continue for the next six weeks or so.

Update: I apparently posted this too early, as the weather service came out with new numbers for the high temperature. The official high for Atlanta reached 104 degrees at 5:21 PM, making Wednesday the warmest day recorded since July 17th, 1980, and marking the third-warmest day ever recorded in the city, and the all-time high for August.

The day’s record also means Atlanta has tied the 1980 record for maximum number of days above 100 degrees with nine. How’s that for setting a bunch of records in one day?

Back to the original post…

Atlanta’s official temperature gauge at Hartsfield-Jackson airport recorded another record high today, with 102 degrees, breaking the previous 1983 record of 100. Here in Lawrenceville, the high reached 101. Also this morning, Atlanta recorded another ‘high-minimum’ temperature of 79 – meaning that the low temperature for August 22nd was the highest it had ever been for this date.

The good news is that today is probably the last of the 100 degree days for the season, and a change in the weather pattern is on the way, albeit slowly at first.

The weather we’ve had over the past two weeks has been controlled by a strong high pressure system, both at the surface and aloft. Since high pressure causes air be heavier than air of lower pressure, it acts to reduce air movement, and keeps storms away. Even Hurricanes Dean and Erin were affected by this. Note how the remnants of Erin moved way north to Michigan and Ohio before turning back eastward. And, a silver lining of the ridge is that it has also kept higher humidity away, keeping the heat from becoming unbearable.

Anyway, the high pressure ridge is ever so slowly moving to the west, and after tomorrow, we should start to see cooler temperatures and an increased chance of sorely needed rainfall. Highs next week should still be warmer than normal, but only in the low 90s, with a chance of thundershowers most days. The chance of rain should be even stronger by this time next week. Accuweather is forecasting rain every day from September 1st through 4th, although this is pretty far out.

At this point, though, I’m more worried about the drought than the heat. You know it’s dry when even the weeds are dying back.

The heat wave continues in Georgia, with no early end in sight. Friday, August 10th, the thermometer rose again to 103 degrees at 5:29 PM, breaking the previous record for the day of 97 degrees, set in 194. Here in Lawrenceville, the temperature broke 100, although it wasn’t quite as hot as yesterday (like someone would notice).

The three day string of 100 plus degree temperatures is the first time since July 27-29, 1993 that Atlanta has been over 100 for so long. The 103 degree temperature recorded Thursday and Friday is the warmest it’s been since 1980, when the temperature in Atlanta hit an all-time record high of 105 degrees on July 17th, 1980—my third week in Georgia.

The Weather Service has issued another heat advisory for Saturday. Temperatures are likely to stay extremely hot through the middle of next week, when we get a cool spell, with highs only reaching the low 90s.