Once again, it’s Groundhog Day, when the marmots emerge from their holes and decide whether spring is near or not. This year, Lilburn’s own Beauregard Lee emerged on a rainy morning and didn’t see his shadow, foretelling an early spring. However, up in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil arose and saw his shadow, calling for six more weeks of winter. Other woodchucks in Long Island and Canada also split on their forecasts.

Of course, the idea of an animal being able to predict the weather might be more valid if we looked at the timing of its emergence, rather than forcing a decision on February 2nd. For example, I saw the first robin of the season over the weekend. The daffodils seem to be running late this year, another sign of a late spring. The weather service also is calling for a late spring, at least in the south (see my previous post), and the outlook for the next two weeks calls for colder than normal weather.

By the way, how do they decide if the groundhog has made an accurate prediction? At least in Pennsylvania, they look at the number of days in the six weeks after groundhog day when the temperature rises above 40 degrees. If it’s more than half, spring arrived early. 40 degrees wouldn’t work here in Atlanta, where the normal high temperature on February 2nd is 54 degrees. By the first of March, it will be up to 60.

January wasn’t very warm. The mean temperature at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta for the month was 38.5 degrees, which was 4.2 degrees below normal. It was a little cooler here in Lawrenceville, with 37.3 degrees. Athens was slightly warmer with an average 39.7 degrees, 2.5 degrees below normal. January rainfall was 5.38 inches in Atlanta, .35 inches above normal. Athens had more precipitation, with 6.2 inches, or 1.51 inches above normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 5.06 inches of rain, however that might be a little short of reality, since my rain gauge doesn’t really handle snow very well.

There’s plenty more rain coming later in the week — up to three inches more. I’m getting tired of it, as I’m sure you are as well.

We’re now about three fourths of the way through January, and just about two thirds of the way through Winter. December was 2.7 degrees colder then normal (15th coldest on record) and the second wettest on record, with 9.1 inches of rain. So far in January, Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport is 5.4 degrees colder than normal, but with 2.19 inches of precipitation, only 54% of normal. With more rain predicted for Sunday, and again at the end of the week, we could easily get back to normal January precipitation of 5.03 inches. The verdict for the first part of Winter would have to be colder and wetter than normal.

Looking forward to February, and anticipating the groundhogs next month, the early part of spring, it looks like we can expect more of the same. The Climate Prediction Center released its February outlook earlier this week, which is reproduced below:

As is typical for El Nino winters, it’s likely to be colder than normal for much of the Southeast, and warmer than normal for the Northwest. The remainder of the country could be above or below normal. On the precipitation side, most of the southern half of the country will be wetter than normal, with equal chances of dry or wet weather in the north. The greatest chance of excessively wet weather is in southern California and Arizona, not welcome news for an area which has seen extensive flooding this week.

It doesn’t look like it’s going to be much different for early Spring, either:

Not a lot of difference between the one month and the three month outlooks, is there? It looks to me like the groundhogs should be calling for six more weeks of winter. Keep an eye on the forecast for next weekend, as it’s possible we could have our second round of wintry weather by then. But, on the bright side, at least we don’t have to worry about a drought.

Side Note: Despite reports of unusually cold weather as 2009 drew to a close, the NCDC reports that 2009 was the fifth warmest year on record, and that the decade from 2001-2009 was the warmest on record. There are some questions, however, about how the data was compiled, and what exactly it’s being compared to.

We are now just one week away from the start of winter. You may think winter begins on December 20th, the shortest day of the year, but from a weather perspective, winter is the three month period of December, January and February. We’ve enjoyed a relatively mild (albeit wet) fall, with temperatures yet to drop below freezing in the metro Atlanta area, but that will change soon.

The latest predictions from the weather service for winter are pretty much in line with earlier forecasts. Much of the South and Mid-Atlantic states have a 40% chance of colder than normal weather, while the upper Midwest and northern states should be warmer than normal. This is a typical winter pattern in El Nino years like we have this year.

The precipitation forecast also reflects typical El Nino conditions, with wetter than normal conditions stretching from California along the southern US border to South Carolina, and drier than normal conditions centered over Tennessee and Kentucky. This puts Georgia right in the middle, with the north likely dry, normal in the middle, and wet in the south. Exactly where the dry/wet lines fall could make a big difference in how the weather plays out.

The extended outlook for the first week of December, if it plays out, will give Georgia its first really cold weather of the season. The graphic to the right shows the temperature outlook for November 29th through December 3rd, with an extremely high chance of colder than normal weather. The 8-14 day outlook is similar, although cold is not quite as likely. The entire country from the Rocky Mountains east is going to be in a cold spell.

The extended outlook also shows a higher than normal chance of precipitation for the Southeast. Could this mean we have a shot at snow or freezing rain? While the weather service doesn’t get specific more than seven days out, Accuweather.com is predicting a chance of freezing rain the night of December 1st, with low temperatures in the upper 20s much of next week. Weather.com predicts warmer overnight temperatures not dropping below freezing, with showers.

Keep an eye on the forecast: we’ll have a better idea by the weekend on what’s in store for next week.

The latest drought report, as of July 14th, lists just over one third of the state of Georgia as being abnormally dry, including metro Atlanta and Gwinnett. This is despite the one to three inches of rain that fell on Sunday. While this may seem ominous, keep in mind that a year ago over half the state was in a severe drought.

The other bit of good news is that the drought outlook isn’t calling for any drought to develop east of the Mississippi River through October. There’s a better than even chance for precipitation tonight and tomorrow, and both the 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks for Georgia are calling for wetter then normal weather.

In addition, both the one month and three month outlooks for August and August through October are calling for equal chances of above and below normal temperature and precipitation.

There is a possibility that we might be seeing some of the warmest weather of this summer over the next few days. With temperatures in the mid 90s today and in the upper 90s in metro Atlanta on Friday and Saturday, we will be seeing the warmest weather since August 6th, 2008, when temperatures reached 94 at Hartsfield Airport, and 99 here at my home thermometer in Lawrenceville.

The warmest temperatures of 2008 were also recorded in June, with the high for the year of 98 on June 9th in Atlanta. Today’s record high temperature was 101 degrees, set back in 1944. A warm stretch back in 1933 set the records for Friday, Saturday and Sunday with 99, 98 and 98 degrees, so we will be coming close to breaking a temperature record.

After the official start to summer on Sunday, we’ll be in for more normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s predicted for next week. In the longer term, however, the trend may be towards lower then normal temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center’s July outlook released today calls for a 33% chance of cooler than normal weather over much of the Southeast, including all of Georgia. The three month outlook through September indicates equal chances of above or below normal temperatures for the east coast, except for southern Florida. Above normal precipitation is forecast in July south of an Atlanta to Columbus line, so it looks like south Georgia will continue to be wet. South-central and southeast Georgia had the most rainfall on record for the March, April and May time period.

Wednesday is slated to be the last day of the relatively cooler than normal temperatures we have seen for the first three weeks of April. Temperatures will rise to the upper 70s, and will reach the 80s by the weekend. It’s likely to stay warmer than normal for the next few weeks, as the first real Bermuda High takes control over the southeastern United States.

In the long run, though, May could be the warmest month through the end of the summer, relative to normal. The image at right shows the latest modeling by the CFS, or coupled forecast system. (Click to enlarge the map). It shows temperatures becoming steadily cooler after a slightly warmer than normal May in the Southeast, and much cooler than normal for the eastern half of the country in July, August and September

The trend through the end of the year points to colder than normal weather as well, as can be seen by the second graph, which shows forecast temperature anomalies by three month period through the end of the year, by which time virtually the entire country, except for the San Francisco Bay area and much of New England should be cooler than normal.

Tornado Reports

Numerous confirmed tornadoes stuck north and central Georgia over the last ten days. On Friday, April 10th, twelve confirmed tornadoes and two suspected tornadoes touched down, with the bulk of them stretching from Columbus, through Americus and Cordele. Additional touchdowns were reported in Jasper and Sparta.

Then on April 19th, there were two more tornadoes, one again in the Columbus area, and the other in Cherokee County. Only one injury was reported in the April 10th incident, and two injuries were reported in the April 19th incident.

You may have noticed that it’s been a bit cooler than normal so far this April. As of this afternoon, the mean temperature for the month at Hartsfield Airport is 56.3 degrees, which is 3.6 degrees less than normal. Here in Lawrenceville, the mean is 56.4 degrees, not varying by much. Except on March 9th and 10th–when it barely made 80, we haven’t seen 80 degrees yet this year.

Normal temperatures for April 16th are a high of 73 and a low of 50. For the past few days, the highs have been in the mid-60s, with lows in the 40s. Much of the country has had a cooler than normal April, as you can see from the map below, which shows departure from normal temperatures for the first fourteen days of April:

It looks like we’ll have one more week of cool temperatures, before we start seeing 80 degrees by the end of next week. If you’re a fan of spring flowers like me, the positive side to the cool weather is that mother nature’s show lasts longer than normal. I remember in years past when a warm spell in late March brought out everything at once, and it was gone in a week. Not this year.

Today, the Climate Prediction Center updated its long-term outlooks for drought, May and the early part of the summer. North Georgia has mostly recovered from the drought, with only five percent of the state in moderate drought, and another two percent abnormally dry. The dry area includes the northeast portion of the state, but not metro Atlanta. Compare this to a year ago, when 54% of Georgia was experiencing drought conditions. Lake Lanier continues to improve as well, measuring 1062.76 feet above sea level, or over a foot above where it was a week ago.

The drought outlook through July show no signs of drought redeveloping, and calls for improvement in the corner of the state where drought still exists. The precipitation outlook, both for May and for May through July calls for equal chances of above or below normal rainfall for most of the United States. Above normal precipitation is likely for Minnesota and the Dakotas, while it is likely to be drier than normal in Utah and Idaho.

The temperature outlook for May and for May-July calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures east of the Mississippi, with warmer than normal weather in most of the southwest, and cooler temperatures in the same Minnesota-Dakotas area that is going to be wetter than normal.

The Climate Predication Center notes that we are entering a neutral period, neither in El Nino nor in La Nina sea surface temperatures. With neutral conditions, there are fewer reliable signals of what weather conditions will be, compared to either a La Nina or El Nino state.

The Weather Service has issued its outlook for spring weather – April, May and June – although some would argue that especially in the South, spring runs from March through May. In any case, the next three months don’t show a trend one way or another for most of the Southeast US.

East of the Mississippi River, there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures. There’s a good chance of warmer than normal weather in the southwest, especially in Texas and New Mexico. The Northwest is expected to be cooler than normal, especially in Washington. Hawaii and parts of Alaska should be cooler than normal as well.

Likely wetter than normal weather is expected in Alaska and Hawaii, while there should be less than normal precipitation in south Florida, the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. The rest of the country has equal chances of above or below normal rainfall.

Because of all the snow this winter, there is a greater than normal chance of flooding in the upper Midwest, especially along the Red River Valley. There’s also a better than normal chance of flooding along the western Great Lakes region of Michigan and northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

The overall weather is considered to be in an El Nino pattern, the warm cycle of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The El Nino pattern is expected to diminish to a neutral pattern later this spring, and in any case, its effects are less pronounced in the spring and summer months. In the southeast, where El Nino tends to bring drier than normal weather, you can see this in the outlook for April, which is likely to be drier then normal, compared to the April-June outlook, which could see above, normal or below normal rainfall.

In the short term, north Georgia could see a rainy stretch starting midweek, followed by a chance of freezing temperatures at night following more rain and the passage of a cold front next weekend. Until then, however, we’ll have pleasant late March weather, so get out and enjoy it.

I was winding my way through the big box home center today picking up a few things, when I noticed the racks of petunias, geraniums and even tomatoes in gallon containers waiting to be sold to unsuspecting consumers.

We’re about to see a real warm up starting on Thursday. By the weekend, we’re likely to see high temperatures in the mid-70s, with lows around 50, which will continue through the middle of next week. Undoubtedly, these tender annuals will be picked up by eager gardeners ready to start Spring. These same folks are likely to be disappointed by the following weekend, when nighttime lows drop below freezing again.

Now, I’m as ready for spring as the next person. And, I’m hoping that Randy’s Nursery will open this weekend so I can get a start planting perennials, which unlike the tomatoes and geraniums won’t expire when the temperatures drop.

State climatologist David Stooksbury recently issued his spring climate outlook, which he says will be influenced by a change from a neutral pattern into a mild La Nina pattern. For Georgia, Stooksbury says, this means it’s likely to be dry in the middle and southern portions of the state, while north of a Carrolton to Elberton line, the climatology is likely to produce normal rainfall. In the Georgia mountains, it’s likely to be either very wet or very dry, depending on the position of the jet stream.

Temperatures are likely to vary widely over the next month and a half:

As far as temperatures are concerned, we can expect a continuation of a wide range, especially through the middle of April.

The date of the last killing freeze, or 28 F or below, or the last frost has no relationship with the climate pattern. Knowing that Georgia is currently under the influence of a weak La Niña tells us nothing about when the last freeze will occur.

Just as important, a warm March does not tell us anything about the likelihood of a late freeze. The 2007 Easter freeze is a prime example. March 2007 had been very warm and most plants had broken their dormancy. Then a devastating freeze hit in early April.

Stooksbury also points out the snow and ice storms are not that unusual in March, either.

So get out and enjoy the upcoming weekend. Within a week’s period Georgians will have been able to play in the snow and break out the shorts and T-Shirts. That’s one reason I like Georgia weather. But, hold off on those annuals until after the Master’s tournament in April.

Georgia saw its first severe weather of 2009 on Wednesday evening, with reports of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms causing one death and multiple injuries. It appears that most of the damage was recorded south of Atlanta, and along the Georgia-Florida border.

Preliminary storm reports showed an EF0 tornado in Warner Robins, an EF4 tornado in Washington, in Wilkes county, which traveled 16 miles and moved a two ton truck 60 feet, an EF1 tornado in Eatonton causing one injury, additional reports of EF1 tornadoes in Jasper and Newton counties, an EF2 tornado near Moreland in Coweta County, and an EF3 tornado near Sparta in Hancock County, which caused the fatality as its 140 MPH winds traveled an eight mile path.

Here is the preliminary report from the Weather Service as of late this afternoon:

TAYLOR COUNTY…THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR TOMMY PRUVIS ROAD AND SB EUBANKS DRIVE AT 545 PM. THE INTERMITTENT TOUCHDOWNS WAS 3 TO 4 MILES LONG AND 50 TO 100 FEET WIDE. SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN…A MOBILE HOME DAMAGED AND ONE BLOWN OFF ITS FOUNDATION. IT WAS RATED AS AN EF0 WITH WIND AROUND 70 MPH.

JASPER COUNTY…THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS AT 800 PM… APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN LENGTH…STARTING 9 MILES WNW OF SHADY DALE TO 2 WNW OF SHADY DALE…LIFTING ABOUT 810 PM. IT WAS RATED A WEAK EF1 WITH WIND ESTIMATED AT 100MPH. MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO FIVE HOMES AND MAJOR DAMAGE TO A SMALL COTTAGE.

COWETA COUNTY…THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 923 BRADBERRY ROAD…APPROXIMATELY THREE MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE STORM CONTINUED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT SEVEN MILES ACROSS SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY…AND 1 MILE WIDE AT THE WIDEST POINT. THE TIME OF THE TOUCHDOWN WAS 830 PM… AND RATED AS AN EF2. AT LEAST A DOZEN HOMES DAMAGED ..SOME SUBSTANTIAL.

PUTNAM COUNTY…THE STARTING POINT WAS 7 WSW OF EATONTON AROUND 715 PM AND EXTENDED ABOUT 7 MILES IN LENGTH AND ONE QUARTER MILE WIDE. THE EF2 TORNADO UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES…DOWNED POWER LINES CLOSED U.S. HIGHWAY 129…AND AT LEAST ONE PERSON INJURED FROM DEBRIS AS THE STORM WENT FROM WILLARD TO EASTONTON AND BRIEFLY TRAPPING OTHERS IN THE HOME OR CAR. A RESTAURANT COMPLETELY DESTROYED…AND SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE.

WILKES COUNTY…THE STORM REACHED THE WESTERN PART OF THE COMMUNITY OF TYRONE…NEAR HIGHWAY 44 AT 710 PM AND EXTENDED FOR 16 MILES IN LENGTH AND ONE HALF MILE WIDE. THE STORM WAS RATED AN EF4 WITH DEBRIS FROM THE DEMOLISHED HOME BEING CARRIED AT LEAST ONE HALF MILE. THERE WERE FIVE OTHER BUILDINGS RECEIVING MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE…AND A CHICKEN HOUSE WAS DESTROYED AS WELL.

There were also numerous hail reports, with golf ball size hail reported in Walton County, and 1.75 inch hail in Henry, Coweta and Clayton Counties.

For the next few days, it’s going to be colder than normal, with highs only around 50 degrees and lows below freezing at least until Wednesday. This is likely to balance out an already warmer than normal February. As of yesterday, Hartsfield airport’s mean temperature was 2.7 degree above normal. At this time of year, our normal high should be 58 degrees, with lows around 38. However after this cold spell passes, the outlook is for warmer than usual temperatures through the first week in March.

Long range, the outlook for March issued today by the Weather Service says we should see equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, and for March through May the trend of variable temperatures and drier weather holds as well.