The Washington, DC area is recovering from its second major snowstorm of the season. At Dulles Airport, the 32.4 inches of snow was the highest two-day total ever recorded. 17.8 inches of snow was measured at Reagan National Airport. That was the second highest total recorded at that location, and the fourth highest total snowfall recorded in Washington. (26 inches was the record DC snowfall, in 1922.)

While the Baltimore airport only recorded 24.8 inches of snow, just to the northwest, in Elkridge, they seem to have gotten more snow than anywhere else, with 34.8 inches.

The bad news for the Washington area is that they are again under a winter storm warning, with a prediction of an additional 10 to 20 inches between noon Tuesday and Wednesday evening. In Atlanta, the storm will only be rain, with the possibility of some snow in the Northeast Georgia mountains.

The real threat for Georgia is this weekend. when another in the series of storms comes barreling north. Some models are indicating several inches of snow, with the snowfall possibly extending into middle and south Georgia. There’s not a lot of confidence in the forecast yet, which is why the early forecast for the weekend doesn’t mention it. But, the models are best at the predictable, and this winter has certainly not been that. Keep your eyes on the forecast as it gets closer to Friday.

Once again, it’s Groundhog Day, when the marmots emerge from their holes and decide whether spring is near or not. This year, Lilburn’s own Beauregard Lee emerged on a rainy morning and didn’t see his shadow, foretelling an early spring. However, up in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil arose and saw his shadow, calling for six more weeks of winter. Other woodchucks in Long Island and Canada also split on their forecasts.

Of course, the idea of an animal being able to predict the weather might be more valid if we looked at the timing of its emergence, rather than forcing a decision on February 2nd. For example, I saw the first robin of the season over the weekend. The daffodils seem to be running late this year, another sign of a late spring. The weather service also is calling for a late spring, at least in the south (see my previous post), and the outlook for the next two weeks calls for colder than normal weather.

By the way, how do they decide if the groundhog has made an accurate prediction? At least in Pennsylvania, they look at the number of days in the six weeks after groundhog day when the temperature rises above 40 degrees. If it’s more than half, spring arrived early. 40 degrees wouldn’t work here in Atlanta, where the normal high temperature on February 2nd is 54 degrees. By the first of March, it will be up to 60.

January wasn’t very warm. The mean temperature at Hartsfield Airport in Atlanta for the month was 38.5 degrees, which was 4.2 degrees below normal. It was a little cooler here in Lawrenceville, with 37.3 degrees. Athens was slightly warmer with an average 39.7 degrees, 2.5 degrees below normal. January rainfall was 5.38 inches in Atlanta, .35 inches above normal. Athens had more precipitation, with 6.2 inches, or 1.51 inches above normal. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded 5.06 inches of rain, however that might be a little short of reality, since my rain gauge doesn’t really handle snow very well.

There’s plenty more rain coming later in the week — up to three inches more. I’m getting tired of it, as I’m sure you are as well.

We’re now about three fourths of the way through January, and just about two thirds of the way through Winter. December was 2.7 degrees colder then normal (15th coldest on record) and the second wettest on record, with 9.1 inches of rain. So far in January, Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport is 5.4 degrees colder than normal, but with 2.19 inches of precipitation, only 54% of normal. With more rain predicted for Sunday, and again at the end of the week, we could easily get back to normal January precipitation of 5.03 inches. The verdict for the first part of Winter would have to be colder and wetter than normal.

Looking forward to February, and anticipating the groundhogs next month, the early part of spring, it looks like we can expect more of the same. The Climate Prediction Center released its February outlook earlier this week, which is reproduced below:

As is typical for El Nino winters, it’s likely to be colder than normal for much of the Southeast, and warmer than normal for the Northwest. The remainder of the country could be above or below normal. On the precipitation side, most of the southern half of the country will be wetter than normal, with equal chances of dry or wet weather in the north. The greatest chance of excessively wet weather is in southern California and Arizona, not welcome news for an area which has seen extensive flooding this week.

It doesn’t look like it’s going to be much different for early Spring, either:

Not a lot of difference between the one month and the three month outlooks, is there? It looks to me like the groundhogs should be calling for six more weeks of winter. Keep an eye on the forecast for next weekend, as it’s possible we could have our second round of wintry weather by then. But, on the bright side, at least we don’t have to worry about a drought.

Side Note: Despite reports of unusually cold weather as 2009 drew to a close, the NCDC reports that 2009 was the fifth warmest year on record, and that the decade from 2001-2009 was the warmest on record. There are some questions, however, about how the data was compiled, and what exactly it’s being compared to.

We are now just one week away from the start of winter. You may think winter begins on December 20th, the shortest day of the year, but from a weather perspective, winter is the three month period of December, January and February. We’ve enjoyed a relatively mild (albeit wet) fall, with temperatures yet to drop below freezing in the metro Atlanta area, but that will change soon.

The latest predictions from the weather service for winter are pretty much in line with earlier forecasts. Much of the South and Mid-Atlantic states have a 40% chance of colder than normal weather, while the upper Midwest and northern states should be warmer than normal. This is a typical winter pattern in El Nino years like we have this year.

The precipitation forecast also reflects typical El Nino conditions, with wetter than normal conditions stretching from California along the southern US border to South Carolina, and drier than normal conditions centered over Tennessee and Kentucky. This puts Georgia right in the middle, with the north likely dry, normal in the middle, and wet in the south. Exactly where the dry/wet lines fall could make a big difference in how the weather plays out.

The extended outlook for the first week of December, if it plays out, will give Georgia its first really cold weather of the season. The graphic to the right shows the temperature outlook for November 29th through December 3rd, with an extremely high chance of colder than normal weather. The 8-14 day outlook is similar, although cold is not quite as likely. The entire country from the Rocky Mountains east is going to be in a cold spell.

The extended outlook also shows a higher than normal chance of precipitation for the Southeast. Could this mean we have a shot at snow or freezing rain? While the weather service doesn’t get specific more than seven days out, Accuweather.com is predicting a chance of freezing rain the night of December 1st, with low temperatures in the upper 20s much of next week. Weather.com predicts warmer overnight temperatures not dropping below freezing, with showers.

Keep an eye on the forecast: we’ll have a better idea by the weekend on what’s in store for next week.

If you’re like me, you are probably sick of all the rain we’ve had over the past month or so. The good news, in addition to less rain today than predicted, is that the weather is going to change beginning on Friday. The bad news is that we are going to get cold.

A front passes through on Friday, blowing out all the rain and tropical air. Behind the front is some of the Canadian air that has been causing some record cold temperatures in the upper Midwest. And, because of a Nor’Easter that will be bringing snow to Pennsylvania and points north, the cold air will be driven further south than it might otherwise have been. The low temperatures forecast for the weekend were in the mid 40s earlier this week. Tonight’s zone forecast calls for temperatures around 40 Saturday and Sunday nights.

But, if you look at the GFS modeling, it’s calling for temperatures around freezing Monday morning in Atlanta, and in the upper 20s for Athens. Will we get there? The record low in Atlanta is 34 for Saturday, 31 for Sunday and 35 for Monday. The normal first freeze in Atlanta is November 10th, about three weeks away. We may not be breaking any records this weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we did end up below 40 degrees. If your furnace has a pilot light, you might want to check it and/or turn it on.

Much of the southeast US has been caught up in a blocking pattern over the past few days, with an upper level low pressure system stuck over the Mississippi/Louisiana area causing wet, tropical air to be brought up from the Gulf of Mexico. While there’s no tropical storm bringing in all this precipitation, the effects are much the same.

In fact, the three day total rainfall I’ve recorded at my home of 4.45 inches is the largest three day total since exactly five years ago on September 16-17, 2004, when 4.73 inches of rain fell as the remnants of Hurricane Ivan came through the state. And it’s possible that we’ll get even more rain later today to beat that record.

Rainfall amounts are varying widely across north Georgia. While I don’t yet have official readings for today, yesterday, Atlanta recorded .76 inches of rain, while I received 2.23 inches. Other areas with a lot of rain yesterday include Chamblee with 1.99 inches and Charlie Brown field with 1.16 inches.

Unfortunately, the rain is going to stick around through the weekend and possibly into the first part of next week before we get to a dry spell. With the ground already saturated from rain, much of Georgia from the Atlanta metro area south has been placed in a flood watch until Saturday morning. As of now, there are no reports of flooding, but it’s certainly possible.

The latest drought report, as of July 14th, lists just over one third of the state of Georgia as being abnormally dry, including metro Atlanta and Gwinnett. This is despite the one to three inches of rain that fell on Sunday. While this may seem ominous, keep in mind that a year ago over half the state was in a severe drought.

The other bit of good news is that the drought outlook isn’t calling for any drought to develop east of the Mississippi River through October. There’s a better than even chance for precipitation tonight and tomorrow, and both the 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks for Georgia are calling for wetter then normal weather.

In addition, both the one month and three month outlooks for August and August through October are calling for equal chances of above and below normal temperature and precipitation.

If it seems pretty warm out there, you’re right. Today’s high temperature of 95.1 in Lawrenceville at 2:20 PM makes it the warmest day of 2009 so far. Of course, the 93-95 degree high temperatures we’ve had for the last two weeks are 5-8 degrees above normal. In Atlanta, it’s been over ten days since the low temperature dropped below 70 degrees, another sign of a heat wave. For the month to date, Atlanta is 2.9 degrees above normal, with an average temperature of 79.5. In Lawrenceville, where nighttime temperatures don’t have the same heat island effect as Atlanta, the average is 77.4 degrees.

All of this isn’t being helped by the lack of rainfall — none here in the last two weeks. Now I know that it has rained in places around Atlanta — just not here. Rain chances increase from this afternoon to tomorrow evening, but after a cold front passes through Sunday night, it’s back to warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather for the work week.

There is a possibility that we might be seeing some of the warmest weather of this summer over the next few days. With temperatures in the mid 90s today and in the upper 90s in metro Atlanta on Friday and Saturday, we will be seeing the warmest weather since August 6th, 2008, when temperatures reached 94 at Hartsfield Airport, and 99 here at my home thermometer in Lawrenceville.

The warmest temperatures of 2008 were also recorded in June, with the high for the year of 98 on June 9th in Atlanta. Today’s record high temperature was 101 degrees, set back in 1944. A warm stretch back in 1933 set the records for Friday, Saturday and Sunday with 99, 98 and 98 degrees, so we will be coming close to breaking a temperature record.

After the official start to summer on Sunday, we’ll be in for more normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s predicted for next week. In the longer term, however, the trend may be towards lower then normal temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center’s July outlook released today calls for a 33% chance of cooler than normal weather over much of the Southeast, including all of Georgia. The three month outlook through September indicates equal chances of above or below normal temperatures for the east coast, except for southern Florida. Above normal precipitation is forecast in July south of an Atlanta to Columbus line, so it looks like south Georgia will continue to be wet. South-central and southeast Georgia had the most rainfall on record for the March, April and May time period.

Wednesday is slated to be the last day of the relatively cooler than normal temperatures we have seen for the first three weeks of April. Temperatures will rise to the upper 70s, and will reach the 80s by the weekend. It’s likely to stay warmer than normal for the next few weeks, as the first real Bermuda High takes control over the southeastern United States.

In the long run, though, May could be the warmest month through the end of the summer, relative to normal. The image at right shows the latest modeling by the CFS, or coupled forecast system. (Click to enlarge the map). It shows temperatures becoming steadily cooler after a slightly warmer than normal May in the Southeast, and much cooler than normal for the eastern half of the country in July, August and September

The trend through the end of the year points to colder than normal weather as well, as can be seen by the second graph, which shows forecast temperature anomalies by three month period through the end of the year, by which time virtually the entire country, except for the San Francisco Bay area and much of New England should be cooler than normal.

Tornado Reports

Numerous confirmed tornadoes stuck north and central Georgia over the last ten days. On Friday, April 10th, twelve confirmed tornadoes and two suspected tornadoes touched down, with the bulk of them stretching from Columbus, through Americus and Cordele. Additional touchdowns were reported in Jasper and Sparta.

Then on April 19th, there were two more tornadoes, one again in the Columbus area, and the other in Cherokee County. Only one injury was reported in the April 10th incident, and two injuries were reported in the April 19th incident.